Can conventional agriculture feed the nation?

The question, “Can a new ‘Green Revolution’ feed India?” is often raised by individuals like Swaminathan Aiyar, who challenge the need for transitioning away from conventional agriculture models. They frequently compare the idea of change with the crisis in Sri Lanka, referencing past approaches and the context in which the original Green Revolution was launched.

But let’s take a step back and consider where we stand today and what the future pathway should be.

In the 1960s, India had just gained independence, and the country, along with much of the world, was recovering from the devastation of World War II and the consequences of infamous famines. At that time, India embarked on a journey to boost the productivity of a few key crops, primarily rice and wheat, in select regions. The government provided extensive support through technology (fertilizers, improved seeds, irrigation), financial backing (credit, subsidies), and market structures (procurement and minimum support prices). Institutions and policies were created to sustain this growth, such as agricultural universities, the Food Corporation of India, NABARD, the nationalization of banks, and the construction of irrigation infrastructure.

Together, these efforts dramatically increased the productivity of rice and wheat. However, by the 1980s, when similar efforts were made to apply this model to other crops like pulses and oilseeds (through technology missions) and extend it to new regions, the same success was not achieved. This failure triggered a deeper agricultural crisis from which many farmers have struggled to recover.

Natural resources such as soil, water, and biodiversity began to degrade. Currently, more than 30% of India's soils are degraded, and the country loses an average of 16 tons of soil per hectare annually. While the initial yield increases of the Green Revolution were aided by the build-up of organic matter in the soil over decades, this organic matter has since been depleted. Despite higher fertilizer use, yields have stagnated or declined. The productivity of chemical fertilizers has dropped significantly—from producing 13.4 kg of grain per kilogram of NPK fertilizer in the 1970s to just 3.7 kg by 2005. This indicates that productivity is more closely linked to soil organic matter than merely to the use of chemical fertilizers.

In the 1960s, food security was India’s primary challenge. Today, the issue is climate change. Every kilogram of nitrogenous fertilizer used emits 1.2 kg of nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential equivalent to 350 kg of carbon dioxide. India uses approximately 20.21 million metric tons of nitrogenous fertilizer, resulting in emissions of around 24.25 million metric tons of nitrous oxide, which equates to 8,487.5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases. And all this with grand subsidy of Rs. 47,000 per ton of Nitrogenous fertiliser

At present, India produces over 300 million tons of food grains and more than 300 million tons of fruits and vegetables—more than enough to feed the population. According to dietary recommendations, each person needs about 250 grams of cereals, 85 grams of pulses, and 400 grams of fruits and vegetables daily, along with nuts, seeds, and fats, totaling around 78 million metric tons of food grains. Despite this, over 45% of India’s population is malnourished.

Further complicating this issue, studies by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) show a steep decline in the nutrient content of Indian foods, likely due to poor varietal breeding and nutrient-depleted soils.

So, what is the way forward? Should we continue to cling to a 70-year-old mindset that relies on applying more fertilizers and waiting for yields to increase? Or should we move forward with new, innovative approaches? The organic and natural farming being discussed today is not a return to age-old practices. There are multiple models emerging across India, and the shift is already underway. Subhash Palekar's model of natural farming is just one among many. Agroecological farming is gaining momentum, and this movement won’t wait for those who remain fixated on outdated methods.

A simple search will reveal that Sri Lanka’s crisis was not caused by a well-planned shift to organic farming, but rather by economic mismanagement and forced transitions. India has the opportunity to avoid such mistakes by embracing change in a scientific and well-planned manner.

The time has come for India to evolve its agricultural practices and adopt sustainable, agroecological approaches to meet the challenges of today—climate change, resource degradation, and malnutrition—while ensuring that future generations inherit a healthy, productive land.