Can the Brexit lead to the explosion of the European Union?

On 23 June 2016 the United Kingdom′s (UK) voters chose to leave the European Union (EU) and it has since then being a constantly topic of discussion and caused some instability to all that has any kind of relationship with the UK. The results of this referendum, the people from the UK voted 52% to leave and 48% to remain in the EU, has changed the history of the United Kingdom, which is composed by England, Scotland, The Northern Ireland and Wales, and also the European Union due to be the first country ever to withdraw.

The United Kingdom held a forty-three years partnership with the European Union until it chose to terminate the membership. However, it was not a founding member of the European Union predecessor organization, the European Economic Community in 1957, like France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Luxemburg and The Netherlands – “The Six”. The United Kingdom only entered the European Union in 1973, the same year as Denmark and Ireland, but according to Salfeld (2017) the Uk always maintained distance from the idea of European integration, which involves the creation of common European economic, foreign, and social policy.

Before its acceptance to enter in the European Union the United Kingdom applied twice, in 1963 and 1967, and its application was rejected. There was always issues it did not agree, wanted special treatment and maintain its sovereignty in all subjects but at the same time keep the benefits the European Union could provide. Moreover, the French President Charles de Gaulle was opposed to it, calling the UK as Trojan horse, what meant that the UK could not be trusted.

Over the forty-three years of the United Kingdom′s membership there have been some sighs of its not fully commitment with the integration in the European Union and it may be seen when the leaders of the UK pushed for opt-outs. It did not joined the boarder-free Schengen Agreement, did not joined the European single currency (The Euro), EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, Area of freedom, security and Justice. It is possible to assume that the United Kingdom did not feel fully integrated with the Europe Union.

Even geographically, The United Kingdom is not near to the majority of the countries that take part of the European Union and in some famous speeches such as in the 1980′ Margaret Thatcher, former Prime Minister, said “I want my money back”. She was referring to the UK contributing too much to the EU and receiving too little from it. Indeed, she had received what she wanted but it transmitted more separation, like the United Kingdom against the European Union, and less integration, like partnership - we and us, and yet it made the others members of state uncomfortable within the UK noncooperation position.

In Salfeld (2017) ′s view the Eurozone debt crises have placed the European Union under a significant economic stress and added the greatest mass migration, nearly 630 thousands foreign national settled in Britain in the year of 2015, have contributed to turn away the United Kingdom from the European Union. Better, turn them further away as it had always kept greater independence from the EU. Even if the economic data showing that the migrants did not influence negatively the Britain′s economy, the large quantity of migrants helped by the European Union rules of free movement of people, started to be seeing by the British citizens as something that served to crowd them out of their own nation and burden the UK′s economy.

When the United Kingdom voted out of the European Union it meant a divorce from all of its policies, no more legally boundaries with the EU. For instance, no more Common Commercial Policy, all EU agreements with third countries will finish its validity and all British citizens who works in the European Union′s institutions will have to leave their position as only citizens of its Member of State are allowed to work there. The process of leaving is scheduled to take at least 2 years to be completed and even now that it has been more than 1 year that the decision to leave have been taken ( June 2016) it has been seen so little progress in the negotiation between the UK and the EU.

The departure of the UK have political, economic and legal consequences in the EU. In addition, it will have to adapt to make sure that there will be no more Members of State willing to propose a referendum to ask the citizens of its country if they want to remain or to leave the European Union, currently there are twenty-seven countries that are part of the EU. Because now it has been proven that the results can be surprising and not what the Prime Minister of the country wants. In the UK, the results was clearly not what the Prime Minister David Cameron wanted or expected.

 There have been already an Ipsos survey in fourteen different nations encompassing over eleven thousand interviews between March 25th - April 8th 2016 asking if they believe their own country should hold a referendum on its EU membership. The countries surveyed was five non-European (Canada, USA, India, Australia and South Africa) and nine EU countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, Sweden, Spain, Belgium, France and Italy). The Ipsos survey revealed that 45% of the respondents in EU countries believed their own country “yes” should hold a referendum and 33% of which said they would vote for their nation to leave the EU if it was hold there. The same survey asked in eight EU countries (excluding the UK) if they think that if the United Kingdom leaving the EU would make the relationship between their country and the UK stronger, weaker or make no difference and 48% thought it would be weaker, 46% said it would make no difference and 5% thought it would make it stronger.

Furthermore, analyzing  the results of the Ipsos survey, it is plausible to affirm that the European Union should put more effort into the integration of the Members of State and work harder to make their citizens comprehend its value to the peace and prosperity of their country. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom could be considered a wakeup call, so now the European Union should consider the risk of more Member of State leaving and not take them for granted.

Patel and Reh (2016) state that the European Union is facing a new challenge, the departure of one of its largest and most important Member of States, the United Kingdom. Which is the fifth largest economy in the world and the second in the European Union, having a net contribution to the EU budget of 8,5 billion pounds in 2015. It is the EU third most populous member of State ( first is Germany and second is France), comprising 12,75% of the EU′s overall population and it made the UK very influential in the Council of the European Union and in the European Parliament. The Uk has a global clout, spend more on defense than any other EU country and it also have played a key role on deepening the single market and making the EU more economically liberal and more global.

They still affirm that in spite of being a powerful, the United Kingdom do not have an advantage over the European Union because The Article 50 give to the EU two-year negotiation period that can only be extended by a unanimous European Council decision. The Europe Union has two interests and negotiation trajectories. First: the EU′s economic interest, if the current levels of exports continues after the Brexit the United Kingdom will be the EU′s largest export market and the EU need to seek a quick, generous and comprehensive free trade agreement with the UK. Second: the EU′s political interest, there is a risk of ‘contagion’ because of the Eurosceptic and they could press their own countries′ special status and/ or exit so the EU should avoid the precedent of easy withdrawal. Yet, due to the strength of the Eurosceptic it is believed that France and Germany will prioritize the political over the economical consideration.

Additionally, Kottasová (2017) explains that there are five main issues that the European Union and the United Kingdom will definitely have to settle: Trade, leaving the EU will result in no more free access to the market, which buy 44% of the UK′s exports and supplies 53% of the UK′s imports. If there is no agreement in this field the UK will have to import and export under much higher tariffs.

Migration, the current Prime Minister Theresa May is committed to reducing the number of migrants coming from Europe to Britain and it may be a problem because the Europe Union requires nations with access to its free trading bloc to accept the free movement of people and it is the contrary of May′s will. Also, there are some sector of the UK′s economy are dependent on the migrants to fill jobs and this puzzle is going to be hard to solve.

Divorce bill, the European Union suppose that the United Kingdom will honor the commitments made as member of state and will settle a final bill, which is expected to be between 25 billion euros and 65 billion euro.  

Right of citizens, The EU and the UK want to safeguard the rights of their citizens who have settled in Britain or Europe , the estimative is that 3 million people from the EU live in the UK and 1,2 million British live in the EU. The European Union wants to broad rights for citizens of EU in the UK, including lifetime access to pension and health care.

Border with Ireland, this is an early priority due to the fact that both sides want to avoid a “hard border” between the Republic of Ireland, which will continue to be part of the EU, and the Northern Ireland, which leaves the EU as it is part of the UK. The EU and the UK need to reach an agreement to maintain the free movement people because many businesses have facilities both sides and it was also a key part of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, which brought peace in the region.

All those matters have to be settled in 2 years period, it represents a massive challenge to the United Kingdom and to the European Union however it causes more distress and pressure to the UK. As the EU is the one that have the control to make it easier, so it could focus on keeping the good relationship with the neighbor, or harder, to set an example so the others members of state do not want to follow the lead. It is important to remind that only the EU can extend the period of negotiations and it is considered the more powerful but it does not mean that there is not a crisis going on within the EU.

According to Dinan, Nugent and Paterson (2017) the crises that has confronted the European Union in recent years has been multi-dimensional in nature, having covered many different levels aspects of the European integration process. It has extended beyond the UK′s relationship with the European Union, the dramatic and headline developments in Greece, the fluctuating fortunes of the Eurozone and the challenge of mass migration. The crises has cut to the very core of the European Union itself. With the trust among the EU policy actors and between European elites and people eroding, solidarity fraying, nationalism and populism surging, the confidence in the EU has declined; and the power has shifted, among the EU institutions and between EU-level and national-level institutions. And more, the position of leading EU states have altered, with Germany arguably becoming too strong and France too weak, and Britain detached to the point to exit the Union.

The authors suggest that the crisis has seen an array of major problems simultaneously and in many cases unexpectedly, pressing the EU. There have been some problems that was not resolved and then contributed enormously to the crisis. For example: the strong contest about an adequate fiscal foundation in the Eurozone, the lack of a fully developed immigration policy and the array of “neighborhood” foreign policy problems – from Syria civil war to the Ukraine conflict. The crisis and problems unsolved have threaten the existence of the “European Project” – the voluntary sharing of national sovereignty between European Union states for the pursuit of mutually beneficial policy objectives and for the first time it is possible to the EU face disintegration.

Therefore, it is possible to affirm the Brexit itself, when the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, is not capable to cause the disintegration of the European Union, that is composed by 27 others countries. Nevertheless, if the European Union do not adapt and propose solutions to the problems that it has been facing since the begging of the crisis, its disintegration could be a possibility in the future.

Although, The Brexit will not be capable of promoting the European Union collapse it could have some policy′ implications. Patel and Reh (2016) suggest that there will be an increase in regulatory burden on EU business, it will weaker the copyright protection in the EU, increase the member-states contributions to the EU Budget, push for tax harmonization and higher taxation of financial transaction, represent less support for nuclear and unconventional energy sources. And it could also cause further effects on the EU′s balance of power, such as strengthen Germany′s position and shift alliances.

To conclude, it is possible to affirm that the United Kingdom have never been fully integrated with the European Union. In various moments of these forth-three year′s membership it has been proven that the United Kingdom did not share the concept of the perpetuation and all values of the European Union. Mostly of the agreements was not about “us” to them but about “me and you”, the UK was always willing to keep their independence, their sovereignty.

What the United Kingdom find most interesting in the European Union is its capacity to have free trade and promote economic growth to its Members of State however the EU is more than economic it also is political, social and legal. The United Kingdom was the first country ever to withdraw from the European Union; which lost one of its largest and most important members. There will be some remarkable impact on the EU′s political system in the short and the long term even so it will not provoke its disintegration. It would only happens if the EU did not find an answer to its current crisis, stabilization of the euro, common refugee policy and stop the Euroscepticism.

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