Can Bolsonaro Accept Defeat?

Brazil's elections last Sunday demonstrate the nation's vocation for contested elections, the heart and soul of any democracy. There were winners and losers for everyone. Today, optimism fuels the presidential election second-round run-off and several gubernatorial races. Most importantly for democracy, past losers won and recent winners lost. The essence of a durable democratic regime is the second and third chances to win. For example, Guilherme Boulos of the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL) won the most votes of any federal deputy candidate in the vote-rich state of S?o Paulo after losing races for the presidency in 2018 and for the mayor of the city of S?o Paulo in 2020. In a democracy, persistence pays off. In Tocantins, senatorial candidate Katia Abreu lost after winning seats in the Chamber of Deputies in 2002 and the Senate in 2006 and 2014. From 2015 to 2016, she served as agriculture minister and ran unsuccessfully as Ciro Gomes' vice presidential running mate in 2018. Katia has won a lot before her more recent failures. Contested democracies also offer space for the novel, the breakthrough candidate, and the dark horses. Last Sunday, Brazilians elected two trans candidates to the Chamber of Deputies: Erika Hilton (PSOL) - see photo above - of S?o Paulo and Duda Salabert of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) in Minas Gerais. Both had previously won elections to the city councils of Sao Paulo and Belo Horizonte, respectively. Despite all odds, they have found a way to succeed in a country with a measurable record of violence against members of the LGBTQ community. They are pioneers, paving the way to greater diversity within Brazil's political representation.

Can President Jair Bolsonaro accept defeat?

Bolsonaro, the incumbent, skirted disaster by rallying a surprising number of votes in the first round of the presidential election, staving off a first-round victory by Lula. He is headed to a run-off with an adversary that epitomizes Brazilian democracy. Lula has lost some and won some, and in the process, he has strengthened the nation's democracy and advanced its socio-economic development. He began his political journey by winning election to the board of directors of his labor union, the S?o Bernardo do Campo and Diadema metalworkers union, in 1975 before winning its presidency in 1978. Serving as an elected official in a representative association is the best way to prepare for a career in electoral politics. Lula has proven this throughout his career and inspired others to get their feet wet by serving their professional associations. In 1982, Lula ran and failed to win the gubernatorial election of Sao Paulo. He bounced back, winning the most votes for federal deputy in the pivotal 1986 elections. Afterward, he came in second place in the presidential elections of 1989, 1994 and 1998 before finally winning the 2002 elections in the second round. He won re-election in 2006 but also had to go to a second-round run-off with Geraldo Alckmin, the former stalwart of the center-right Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) and governor of S?o Paulo, who is now Lula's vice presidential running mate. Lula's current partnership with Alckmin reveals the twists and turns of politics when adversaries become allies but also underscores the division in contemporary Brazilian politics: democrats versus autocrats.

Although it is not certain who will win or lose the Brazilian presidential election on 30 September, it is reasonable to ask whether the incumbent will accept losing. Bolsonaro has never lost an election since he launched his career in 1988 by winning a seat on the Rio de Janeiro city council. Since 1990, he has won seven consecutive races for federal deputy from Rio de Janeiro and the 2018 presidential election. In many ways, he has been one of Brazil's biggest beneficiaries of electoral democracy. He owes everything, his popularity, power and his family's wealth, to winning elections. His drive to win the balloting should never be underestimated, but he has repeatedly and purposefully raised questions over his commitment to democracy and electoral results.

Is he willing to lose an election? This is the question that will be answered if Lula wins. Nobody likes losing, but it does build character, and in a democracy, it is a fundamental outcome. Electoral democracy highlights winners, but its bedrock is laid by the losers who recognize results and pledge to improve their proposals, reform their approach to voters and revitalize their political parties and campaign organizations. If Bolsonaro loses, he can strengthen Brazilian democracy by accepting the results, congratulating the winner and pledging to do better next time. Brazilians are lucky; democracy gives everyone a second or even third chance. Nobody knows this better than Lula.