Can AR Save OEMs from Big Tech & Drivers from Cognitive Overload?

A few weeks ago, a CNBC article outlined Apple's ever-increasing encroachment into the automotive industry with its next-generation CarPlay software. The new interface presented by Apple's engineering manager, Emily Schubert, digitizes everything from gas gauges to volume control and essentially takes over the entire dashboard. While CarPlay definitely helps automakers sell vehicles (79% of consumers would only buy a new car if it had CarPlay), the ramped up push by Apple and other big tech companies inside cars is chipping away at the connection OEMs have spent more than a century building with their consumers.

Now, automakers are faced with the dilemma of either completely relinquishing the power of the in-vehicle experience to big tech and the billions of potential revenue that comes with it, or spending billions of their own to try and develop an OS to compete. If you're an OEM, the former is definitely a tough pill to swallow, however, the latter may seem like a suicide mission. But what if there's a third route? One that doesn't potentially ostracize the largest car-buying audience in the world while allowing OEMs to tap into the billions in revenue the in-vehicle experience is expected to generate over the next decade?

The automakers already own the largest and potentially most valuable real estate inside the car - the windshield and the windows. Now, the convergence of "smart glass" technologies like holography and thin optics film, increasingly popular augmented reality head-up displays (AR HUDs), and AR-generated experiences presents an incredible opportunity for automakers. By utilizing the 30+ square feet of glass surface area inside vehicles, OEMs can leverage these revolutionary new technologies to create their own bespoke experiences for consumers, independent of OS like CarPlay.

In-vehicle AR is the perfect medium for automakers to create, maintain, and enhance connections with car buyers that big tech companies are trying to take over and monetize themselves. By embracing the immersive and emotional connections AR is designed to create with its users, automakers will have a much better shot of tapping into the $100+ billion the in-car advertising, commerce and payments market is expected to bring in by 2030.

Immersive AR content will allow passengers to interact with lifelike projections of the real world, unlike images or banners. Traditional advertising has been done through time-triggered content delivery called "dayparting" (ex. McDonalds ad at lunch time). Conversely, by utilizing passenger data and AR technology, automakers and brands can partner to present content to consumers where, when, and how they want it, greatly enhancing the mobility experience rather than interrupting it. Car buyers are ready for it, too. According to Vericast 70% of consumers want to receive smart ad recommendations while on the road and 68% are willing to share their data with brands to improve the ad experience.

By interacting with AR content, consumers are given the sense that they are engaging in a fun game rather than being sold a product. AR-generated experiences will strengthen the emotional bond automakers have with their consumers, something they're desperately trying to prevent big tech from taking over. These emotional connections are invaluable to both brands and the automakers alike because people gravitate towards the brands they have positive associations with, making AR content perfect for generating revenue and building a company’s reputation.

But what about safety? If there's one lesson that should be taken from the AV hype cycle it's that any promises made by tech giants should be taken with the entire salt shaker, especially when it comes to auto safety.

Unfortunately, big screens have become synonymous with luxury and status like plasma TVs were on MTV cribs, but the big screen bubble is likely to burst for several reasons. Toyota Connected North America's CEO Steve Basra put it perfectly recently, asking “Do consumers want more screens in their car? Or do they just want a phenomenal experience? I think they want a phenomenal experience.” This is a stance that should serve as a bellwether for infotainment innovation throughout the automotive industry.

Cars are being built in a way that cause the same level of cognitive overloads that prompted the military to completely redesign Apache helicopter cockpits to help pilots maintain focus. We are literally "killing people" as University of Utah professor and cognitive psychologist David Strayer, puts it. Strayer knows the dangers of cognitive overload first hand because he worked on the Apache problem with the military to help solve it. If the annexation of the automotive interior continues, screens will get bigger with no real responsible plan for safe integration and consumers will be the ones who get hurt.

In 2019, Strayer's team along with AAA conducted a study of more than two dozen separate infotainment systems to assess the distraction and cognitive load of each. The outcome? Every single infotainment system had an alarming level of negative impact on the driver's ability to safely maneuver a two-ton vehicle.

Unfortunately, Americans overwhelmingly believe that baked-in automotive features are exclusively there to help them drive safely. This is categorically wrong, and potentially deadly. Americans should not be forced to accept the human cost of big screen culture. Despite the millions spent on safety campaigns, neither a mass shift in driving behavior nor a major change in public policy is likely. They're great for LinkedIn posts and stadium billboards, but fall flat when it comes to impact. Therefore, if big tech is allowed to continue down this path unchecked, tens of thousands of people, most of them teenagers, will continue to die each year due to preventable distractions.

Technology moves too fast for any kind of legislation to be implemented that would standardize safety for infotainment systems. To ensure the "infotainment arms race" doesn't turn into nuclear war, the government needs to go one step further than half-baked voluntary guidelines and update its outdated NCAP crash safety ratings. As National Transportation Safety Board chair Jennifer Homendy told David Zipper last year “The best way to get manufacturers to prioritize safety is to create consumer demand...And demand comes from safety ratings.” Using proven metrics such as measuring cognitive load to determine the safety level of infotainment systems would likely rein in the battle for the dashboard, and more importantly, save lives.

Comparatively, AR HUDs can be designed in a way that safely manages the driver's cognitive load by creating an environment that does not overstimulate with unnecessary warnings and excessive information. AR-enhanced visual cueing can increase the amount of viewable information and highlight obstacles while reducing the possibility of errors made while navigating. With an infinite number of driving scenarios requiring decisions to be made in milliseconds, cueing can be the difference between life and death.

While AR HUDs aren't mandated for new vehicles yet, driver monitoring systems (DMS) soon will be, are already a part of Euro NCAP, and are included in the U.S.' new infrastructure bill. Additionally, DMS are essential for proper function of ADAS features such as GM's SuperCruise. Given the position of the AR HUD, an integration with the DMS camera seems like a match made in auto safety heaven, especially as more ADAS features are introduced.

Panasonic Automotive's new AR HUD already boasts an integrated IR camera that can detect driver distraction and impairment without the need for a standalone DMS from another supplier. This integration can defragment the supply chain for OEMs, cut costs, and drastically increase their vehicles' safety features. WayRay 's revolutionary holographic three-liter HUD enables it to be installed almost anywhere, in any vehicle. The small package also frees up room for similar DMS integration or partnerships with current suppliers.

At the Center for Automotive Research's Management Briefing Seminars, Consumer Reports' Kelly Funkhouser, who has a background in cognitive psychology, stated that AR HUDS "...should be everywhere all the time." She highlights the importance of AR HUDs' ability to "keep the driver in the loop" and illustrates to the driver what specifically the ADAS sensors are seeing. Using AR to establish a connection between the human driver and the sensors will create a more robust understanding of the vehicle's capabilities and limitations and will inherently create a more responsible driver who doesn't over-rely on the technology,

From HUDs to immersive content, AR opens up a world of opportunities for automakers to connect with their consumers in a way they have never been able to before. How much of the $100+ billion opportunity they will try and seize remains to be seen. Most importantly, if steps to limit cognitive overload inside vehicles aren’t taken soon, the number of people who die on America’s roads will continue to rise exponentially.?