Can Africa Abandon Fossil Fuel in the Energy Transition?

Our over-reliance on fossil fuels has created a climate crisis that threatens human health and the ecosystem through environmental disasters. As many countries like Brazil respond to this through energy transition, many African nations are left in a dilemma due to the importance of fossil fuels in their economies.?

Despite contributing the least to the current global climate crisis, Africa suffers the most consequences compared to other regions. Therefore, Africa faces the same tough battle as the rest of the world to tackle the effects of climate change and become resilient to future climate crises.

Humanity's overdependence on fossil fuels has been a blessing in disguise since the Industrial Revolution. For over two centuries, fossil fuel has been fully entrenched in every aspect of peoples' lives and economies, improving life.

Coal, oil, and natural gas have evolved into industrial processes, farming, and transportation. The Industrial Revolution, based on fossil fuels, has changed the world dramatically compared to the late 17th century.

The discovery and use of fossil fuels have brought global prosperity and improved health. This has enabled the global population to grow from one billion in the 17th century to eight billion in the early 21st century.

In terms of the economy, fossil fuel energy system is the primary driver of the modern economy. Fossil fuel has powered the Industrial Revolution, pulled millions out of poverty, and shaped the contemporary world.

Thanks to fossil fuels, Africa has grown, flourished, and raised Africans' living standards. However, fossil fuels have also contributed to the current climate change crisis.

Impacts of Fossil Fuel Dependency

Africa and the world's over-dependence on fossil fuels has brought about the most extreme effects of global warming since the last ice age. July 2023 is the hottest month ever in recorded history.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), fossil fuels are the leading cause of current global warming. Fossil fuels account for over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 90% of all CO2 emissions.

Coal is the dirtiest fossil fuel responsible for the most significant rise in global temperature.

When burned, oil is the largest producer of carbon, contributing to a third of the total carbon emission. A number of oil spills have also occurred in recent decades, which have had a devastating impact on the ocean ecosystem.

Even though natural gas is promoted as the cleanest fossil fuel, it still contributes to a fifth of the world's total carbon emissions.??

Recently, the environmental impacts of July 2023, the hottest month in history, have been catastrophic, with prolonged heat waves and fierce wildfires sweeping across the Northern Hemisphere.

In Africa, the impact of global warming due to fossil fuel dependency has been seen as the reduction in rainfall levels has affected and threatened food production.

The extreme weather effects have been recently faced in the continent as more than 11,000 people were killed and tens of thousands more injured following the catastrophic collapse of two dams in Libya. The collapse was a result of an extreme storm, Storm Daniel.

Fossil fuels have impacted the environment, our health, homes, communities, and human rights.

Climate change, caused by fossil fuel dependency, is increasing inequality worldwide. The climate crisis has led to floods, droughts, and other disasters, displacing communities and destroying property.

If humanity does not move away from fossil fuel dependency by 2050, 150 to 200 million people may be forcefully displaced from their homes.

The best way of reversing the current and future effects of global warming is to move the world's population from fossil fuel dependency towards the use of renewable energy.

Countries like Brazil are good examples of how the world can reverse the diverse effects of climate change. However, the main question is whether African nations can abandon fossil fuels in the current energy transition.

Energy Transition in Brazil

Brazil leads the world in transitioning from fossil fuel dependence to the increased use of renewable energy with its excellent service of hydro-power plants.

The use of wind power in Brazil has grown dramatically in recent years due to low-interest incentives financing policies and fair prices due to electric power auctions.

Additionally, the country is looking to add solar power to the country's energy mix. However, these efforts are being slowed down due to policies and regulations, especially in the free market.

Brazil is also the best case study on how African nations can decarbonize transportation. The use of flex-fuel cars in Brazil has enabled the wide use of ethanol and bio-diesel, dramatically reducing the emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

In general, renewable energy sources in Brazil account for approximately 42% of the total energy supply and 85% of the power sector production.

Can Africa Afford to Abandon Fossil Fuel Now?

Even though some African countries like Kenya currently use renewable energy to supply their electricity needs, this is not a priority for most African countries, given their current social and economic realities.

Amid the global drive towards energy transition, Kenya is showing African nations how to achieve high living standards without intensively using fossil fuels.

According to the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), renewable energy, including geothermal, solar, and wind power, accounts for 75% of electricity generation. So abundant are the reserves that many geothermal resources are vented off at night when the electricity demand is low.?

According to EPRA, Kenya has sufficient geothermal reserves to multiply its current installed capacity by at least eight times.

Only some countries in Africa are equally endowed. Additionally, abandoning the highly dependable fossil fuel could reduce the energy supply in a continent experiencing increasing energy needs.

Poverty, not Fossil Fuel

Apart from Kenya, 22 more African countries use renewables as their primary source of electricity. However, a massive part of the African economy, including the agriculture, transport, and manufacturing sectors, still heavily depend on fossil fuels to operate effectively.

Therefore, Africa cannot afford to break from fossil fuels since climate change in the continent is not seriously threatened by coal, oil, and natural gas.

First, Africa's contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is negligible. Additionally, Africa still has thick forests that act as carbon sinks, absorbing carbon emissions from fossil fuels.

The biggest threat to the climate in Africa is the endemic poverty facing approximately 70% of Africans, not the use of fossil fuels to power the continent. The overdependence on charcoal, firewood, and agricultural residue for cooking and lighting produces carbon fumes and leads to deforestation.

Continued Poverty???

African countries cannot afford to radically abandon fossil fuels in favor of renewable energy, as the latter is not a suitable substitute for the hydrocarbon energy intensity needed to run factories.

With the rapid growth in population across the continent, more energy is needed to create jobs. According to the former vice president of Nigeria, Yemi Osinbajo, while addressing a crowd in Abuja, "No one in the world has yet been able to industrialize using renewable energy."

As most African countries are increasing their oil production and discovering new oil and gas fields, signalling good fortunes, it is gross hypocrisy to insist that Africa freeze its carbon emissions, let alone reduce them from the current low electricity and energy levels.

Demanding that African countries abandon fossil fuels in favour of renewable energy is equivalent to asking the entire continent to continue languishing in poverty.

Even though it is fortunate for countries like Kenya that geothermal energy is stable enough to provide the base load, other African nations like Nigeria desperately need fossil fuels to power the economy since wind and solar are not dependable, according to Yemi Osinbajo.

A Pragmatic Energy Transition for Africa

The benefits of renewable energy are well-known and documented and can make sense for the continent. Renewable energy technologies have proven cost-effective, deployable, secure, climate resilient, and help decarbonize the world.

Given the potential for African countries to harness the abundant renewable energy to power an "African Industrial Revolution," African leaders like Mr. Osibanjo making a case for renewable-led growth and development model tend to be drowned.

However, these leaders make valid points since fortunes from fossil fuel investments can be reinvested in advancing renewable energy technologies.

Africa should go green not out of a sense of moral obligation but as a pragmatic response to the new billion-dollar opportunities in renewables.

Rich world and middle-income countries like China and Brazil are already locked into a carbon-intensive path, which makes switching to renewable technologies difficult. However, African countries need fossil fuel investments to build their renewable energy infrastructure, making adopting this new clean energy easier.

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