CAMPANELLE: AN EXPLANATION BY MARK SHRAGER
Well, this is a bit awkward. It seems that Campanelle, which I touted as the likely winner of the sixth race on today’s Breeders’ Cup program, the Juvenile Turf Sprint, was entered instead in the ninth race, the Juvenile Fillies Turf. I apologize for any confusion, and I mean that sincerely. I’m still trying to figure out how such a thing could have happened.
I always begin my Breeders’ Cup handicapping with the pre-entries, which are published by Daily Racing Form Inc. a few days before actual entries are drawn. I never do switch over to the official entries – by the time they arrive on the scene, I have so much information scribbled on my pre-entries pages that it would take hours to copy it all, and in the process, something important might be missed.
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When the official entries were published Tuesday evening, I pulled them up on my cellphone, and proceeded through the races, one-by-one, noting for each runner its post position, odds, and jockey. When the name of a pre-entered horse does not appear among the entries for a race, I exclaim to myself, out loud, “Union Gables (for example) is OUT!” And I draw a thick line through the non-runner’s name, so that there can be no mistake that it’s not going to be competing.
For the Juvenile Turf Sprint I show Campanelle in post position six, at 4-to-1 odds, with jockey Frankie Dettori aboard. That’s what I copied from the website I used. Was it my error to show the filly in the wrong race? Certainly. It’s a puzzle, but there’s no question it’s my puzzle. Next year, I'll use two sources.
Anyway, for those of you who hang on such things, my Juvenile Turf Sprint choice is now the maiden After Five, which was favored at 2-to-1 odds in The Futurity’s, attacked a somewhat tepid pace, and fell a half-length short of the victorious Second of July. Cowan is my second choice, and Second of July is my third. I still believe the likely favorite, Golden Pal, is going to be a victim of the race’s horde of front-runners.
As for the Juvenile Fillies Turf, while Campanelle certainly has the class to win, I am concerned that she’s never raced beyond six furlongs. Aunt Pearl, the likely race favorite, now has another burner to accompany her on the early lead, which makes me dislike her chances even more than I did before, which was quite a bit. Front-runners have a pretty dismal history in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, anyway. My choices remain Plum Ali, Madone and Alda, in that order.
Again, I’m sorry if I caused you any problems with this. In 20+ years of posting my choices, I’ve never made this sort of mistake before. I’ll work harder in the future to make certain I never do again.