Campaign Shockwaves

Good morning and happy Labor Day from Buffalo, New York.?Grover Cleveland got his start here before making Labor Day a national holiday in 1894.

There are only sixty-five days until Election Day, November 5th, and the race for the White House continues to travel a wild and winding path.?Key swing states remain the same while the plans of both campaigns ebb and flow as they plot to win 270 Electoral votes; reactions as Kamala Harris’s ascension continues to send shockwaves through the electorate.

Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, hit the road last week for a two-day bus tour of Georgia, including several rural precincts, and a closing rally in Savannah. The extended visit sends a strong message that the Harris/Walz campaign believes they can win Georgia, a welcome development for Democrats after the Biden campaign had all but given up on the Peach State. Former President Trump was polling nearly 6 points ahead of President Joe Biden in Georgia whereas the?latest polls have Trump and Harris virtually tied.?The Harris campaign is well aware that they are unlikely to win many of the deep red counties they are visiting in southeast Georgia, but if they can keep the margins close in those counties while winning handily in Atlanta and the surrounding suburbs, they see a path to victory in the Peach State.?

Harris is employing a similar margin-cutting strategy in other swing states, including North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Democrats have not won North Carolina since Barrack Obama’s victory in 2008, but they are hoping increased turnout among Black voters in rural counties (and an advantage over a far-right Republican gubernatorial campaign) can help them replicate their 2008 success. In Pennsylvania, Senator John Fetterman and Governor Josh Shapiro, both Democrats, outperformed national Democrats in rural areas, thanks in large part to focusing on reducing their opponent’s margins in traditionally red counties. In an encouraging sign for the Harris campaign, a recent report showed that voter registration among young Black women is up a whopping 175% compared to 2020. If those voters turn out for Harris, it could be enough to propel her to victory in states with a large Black population, including Georgia and North Carolina.?

Harris (and Walz) also sat for their first extended media interview.?If the plan was to make no mistakes, Harris passed with flying colors.

The Trump campaign also received a boost this past week when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ended his Independent bid for the Presidency and endorsed Trump. RKF Jr., who initially entered the race as a Democrat before switching to an Independent said, “[Trump] invited me to form a unity government and we agreed to be able to continue to criticize each other on issues on which we don’t agree. But these issues are so important for unifying our country. We need in this country to reach a point where we love our children more than we hate each other.” Despite his storied last name in Democratic circles, Kennedy’s brand of vaccine skepticism and distrust of the government made it more likely he would pull votes from Trump than Harris. Kennedy has said there were “no commitments” in exchange for endorsement, but Trump has said he is open to having Kennedy serve in his cabinet, and later said he would put Kennedy in charge of declassifying the documents related to his uncle’s assassination in 1963.

Former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020, also endorsed Trump last week. Gabbard has made a slow lurch to the right since leaving Congress, becoming a regular on Fox News and stepping up her public criticisms of national Democrats. The endorsement is unlikely to sway voters given Gabbard’s profile, but the two endorsements give the Trump campaign a veil of bipartisanship.?It also fuels the “weird” criticism, especially with this story.

In New York, the end of summer also unofficially marks the start of budget planning for the upcoming fiscal year. The Department of Budget will hold public hearings, generally in October, where state agencies outline their capital budget requests and answer questions from Members of the Legislature. In November, representatives from the Division of the Budget, the Senate Finance Committee, the Assembly Ways and Means Committee, and the Office of the State Comptroller will hold a public “Quick Start” meeting to discuss revenue estimates and spending projections for the upcoming year.?

Of course, there is still government business from this year’s legislative session that needs to be wrapped up. There are still over 500 bills that were passed by the Legislature that are awaiting action from Governor Hochul. Some of the more notable pieces of legislation include a measure to regulate short-term rentals by requiring units be registered every two years, as well as allowing municipalities to collect occupancy and sales tax on the rentals. Another bill, named the Climate Change Superfund Act, would create a $3 billion annual fund to invest in climate resiliency projects over the next 25 years, with large oil and gas companies who have operated in New York footing the bill.?

Hochul was at the New York State Fair last week where she vowed to keep a glass of milk at 25 cents for fairgoers, which the state has long subsidized as a way to promote the local dairy industry.?Fair attendees consume between 350,000-400,000 cups of milk each year, which then-Governor Andrew Cuomo said cost the state $90,000.?While the Monday Morning Memo strives to be fair and balanced, it is the best milk we have ever tasted.

Hochul also took in the famous butter sculpture, which this year features a farmer planting a tree and a family relaxing on a river bank. The sculptors, Jim Victor and Marie Pelton, said the sculpture has enough butter for over 76,000 pancakes and weighs as much as nine newborn calves.?

In Washington, D.C., Congress will return to Session next week with a lot to do. Lawmakers have until October 1st to come to an agreement on an annual appropriations bill, pass a short-term Continuing Resolution (CR), or risk a government shutdown. Of the twelve bills that make up the annual appropriations package, the House of Representatives passed only half of them before leaving for August recess, and the bills that are remaining are among the most politically fraught. Leadership in the House and Senate both indicated that a short-term CR may be the easiest lift, but that too presents potential roadblocks.?

The White House has asked for an additional $3.7 billion to be included in any spending package to address natural disasters and emergencies, including the recovery efforts in Maui and the repair of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. The Department of Veterans Affairs is also facing a $15 billion budget shortfall that must be addressed before October 1st. Hardline Conservatives in the House, many of whom voted against their own party’s appropriations bills for not enacting deep enough cuts, are sure to take issue with any supplemental funding requests from President Biden and the White House.? While a CR seems like the most likely path, it is unclear whether lawmakers will try to move a permanent spending measure later this year or wait until next year when a new administration and a new Congress are in power.?

Which party controls the House may very well depend on what happens in New York. Republicans gained five seats in New York in 2022, narrowly paving the way for the GOP to retake control of the lower chamber. Here are a few competitive races to watch:?

NY-03: Incumbent Rep. Tom Souzzi (D) v. Mike LiPetri (R)??

• After winning a high-profile Special Election to replace disgraced former Rep. George Santos, Souzzi will run against former Assembly Member Mike LiPetri for the Northwest Long Island-based seat.?Suozzi has represented parts of this seat for over a decade and remains the favorite to hold it.

NY-04: Incumbent Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) v. Laura Gillen (D)??

• In Southwestern Long Island, first-term Rep. D’Esposito will run against Gillen in the General Election for the second cycle in a row. D’Esposito beat her by 4 points in 2022, but Gillen, a former Hempstead Town Supervisor, has received financial and strategic support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in the hopes of faring better this time around.?Labor is split in this race while Kamala Harris may help drive turnout in neighborhoods that will help Gillen. This will be one of the most closely contested races in the nation and a bellwether for control of the House.
• NY-17: Incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler (R) v. Mondaire Jones (D)??

• In the lower Hudson Valley, freshman Rep. Mike Lawler narrowly defeated the former Chair of the DCCC, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in 2020 after the chaotic redistricting process caused Jones, then Congressman for the 17th Congressional District, to run in NY-10. Jones ultimately lost a very contentious primary. Both campaigns have accumulated serious war chests—Lawler has raised $5.7 million with $3.9 million cash on hand, and Jones has raised $5.5 million with $4.3 million cash on hand as of June 30.?Jones lost some “progressive” support after his endorsement of Westchester County Executive George Latimer against Rep. Jamaal Bowman in a neighboring primary.?Lawler has been taking a victory lap on the current “pause” on Congestion Pricing and remains a slight favorite.

NY-18: Incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan (D) v. Alison Esposito (R)?

• Rep. Ryan’s victory in the Mid-Hudson Valley was one of the few bright spots for Democrats in 2022, and they are intent on holding the seat. Ryan has raised nearly $5.3 million while Esposito, who built a statewide profile during her unsuccessful run for Lieutenant Governor in 2022, has raised just $1.3 million.?Ryan enters September as the favorite especially with the rising Democratic fortunes in the presidential race.

NY-19: Incumbent Rep. Marc Molinaro (R) v. Josh Riley (D)?

• Like NY-04, this race will be a rematch from 2020 when Molinaro narrowly defeated Riley despite Biden outperforming Trump in the district. Riley has raised almost $5.3 million with $4 million cash on hand, while Molinaro raised $3.6 million with over $2.2 million cash on hand.?The district encompasses large parts of the Southern Tier, including all of Delaware, Ostego, Sullivan, Chenango, Broome, Columbia, Green, and Tompkins Counties.?Republican Molinaro has leaned into abortion, usually a strong Democratic issue, and holds a slight edge.

NY-22: Incumbent Rep. Brandon Williams (R) v. John Mannion (D)??

• Williams won in 2022 by just 1 percentage point, and the new lines have made the district marginally more favorable to Democrats. Mannion, a current State Senator and former teacher, was first elected in 2020 and won reelection in 2022 by a mere 10 votes.?A recent investigation cleared Mannion of accusations of being a bad boss, only adding to Mannion’s surging momentum and energy in this race, where labor and a strong coordinated campaign portend a Democratic upset.

Finally, the warring Gallagher brothers have put their differences aside for an Oasis reunion!?

Great news because, after all, you are my Wonderwall!

[Read here about the six burning questions surrounding the tour.]

-Jack O’Donnell