Campaign Interceptions

It was a close call last week for Elon Musk’s Starlink contract and American booze sales in Ontario. A trade war with the U.S. has been averted – for now – but the threat of American tariffs remains top of mind for businesses across the province. ?

With the pause on tariffs tracking to lift in about 3 weeks, the focus of the Ontario campaign trail shifted from cross-border concerns to issues closer to home last week. ?

Party Pledges?

Here are the top highlights from the week:?

PC

• Gridlock: Build the “next generation” of GO train service, including a freight rail bypass along the Highway 407 corridor in Peel Region.?
• Affordability: Eliminate tolls on Highway 407 East and permanently cut the provincial gas tax by 5.7 cents per litre and on diesel by 5.2 cents.?
• Transit: Upload the Ottawa LRT to the province, taking over maintenance and capital costs. ?

Liberal

• Social support: Double the Ontario Disability Support Program benefits permanently.??
• Healthcare: Offer a bonus to Canadian doctors and nurses working in the U.S. if they return to Ontario to work.?
• Affordability: Cut the small business tax rate in half to 1.6 per cent.??

NDP?

• Housing: End encampments by building 60,000 new supportive housing units.?
• Healthcare: Recruit 3,500 new doctors in Ontario.??
• Education: Spend an additional $830 million annually for 10 years to repair schools. ?

Political Crossfire?

Hot Mic Fumble: Premier Ford shared candid remarks about his initial support of President Trump’s victory.?The Grits and NDP immediately pounced on the hot mic moment to cast Ford as a Trump supporter, who therefore cannot hold Ontario's frontline when negotiating with Washington.??

Narrative Shift: NDP and Liberal leaders, Marit Stiles and Bonnie Crombie, are travelling the province, pushing their own messages on healthcare, social supports, and housing, forcing the PC’s “protect Ontario” slogan to the sidelines.???

Starlink Reboot:?By?nearly ripping up the province’s $100 million contract with Starlink, Ford took one of the opposition’s more cogent attacks on him out of their arsenal.?

Why it Matters?

Ford’s “protect Ontario” message and hands-on approach to tackling tariffs has resonated with voters, with recent projections showing the PCs holding a commanding lead over the Liberals and NDP. ?

While polling has consistently favoured the PCs, the NDP and Liberal campaigns have had recent success in changing the channel from tariff talks to other core priorities, including housing,?healthcare and affordability. As a result, Ford found himself playing defense after weeks of quarterbacking Canada’s anti-tariff message.???

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