The Camel and the Needle: A Political Odyssey in the Somali Region of Ethiopia.

For six long years, the opposition in Ethiopia’s Somali Region has attempted to oust President Mustafe, tirelessly battling with words, protests, and political stratagems. Yet, their efforts have resembled a Sisyphean struggle—an almost surreal attempt to push a camel through the eye of a needle. The camel, lounging in regal repose within the palace walls, remains unbothered, while the opposition, now experts in needlecraft, stand frustrated at the impossibility of their mission. Each time they think they've found a path, Mustafe smiles, leans back, and says, “You missed a stitch.”

Such is the political landscape in Ethiopia's Somali Region: a blend of intractable governance, unyielding persistence, and the magic of maneuvering, all underscored by the surreal reality of power. In this land where tradition and modernity collide, the needle's eye is narrow, yet the camel—symbolizing both power and the weight of regional dynamics—continues to occupy its space undisturbed.

The Ethiopian Political Backdrop: Power and Precarity

To truly appreciate the conundrum that is Mustafe’s presidency, one must first understand the larger political landscape of Ethiopia. A nation of vast ethnic diversity and complex regional tensions, Ethiopia has long been governed by a delicate balance of federalism. The Somali Region, geographically expansive and historically marginalized, occupies a strategic but fraught position in this puzzle.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power was seen as a herald of change—his vision for unity, economic reform, and political liberalization rekindled hope across the nation. Yet, in the context of the Somali Region, the dynamics are more intricate. Mustafe’s administration has often been viewed as both a stabilizing force and, paradoxically, a barrier to broader political evolution. The region's prosperity has grown under his watch, with improved infrastructure, social projects, and relative peace compared to its turbulent past. However, this prosperity is often attributed not just to Mustafe’s own leadership but to the hidden mechanisms of the Somali Prosperity Party (SPP), whose influence casts a long shadow over the political landscape.

The Needle’s Eye: Should Mustafe Stay or Go?

The debate surrounding Mustafe’s continued tenure can be likened to the absurdity of pushing a camel through the eye of a needle. On one hand, there are undeniable advantages to his staying in power: stability, continuity, and the preservation of regional autonomy in the face of external pressures. Under Mustafe, the Somali Region has witnessed progress that many argue could be jeopardized by a sudden shift in leadership. The camel, in this analogy, represents not just Mustafe but the region’s complex political apparatus—a system that cannot simply be forced through the narrow constraints of conventional governance without risking fragmentation.

Yet, the cons of his prolonged leadership cannot be dismissed. Critics argue that Mustafe’s governance has become overly reliant on political patronage, and the opposition’s frustrations reflect broader concerns about the erosion of democratic processes. The constant struggle to remove him, likened humorously to "missing a stitch," is emblematic of the broader disconnect between the ruling elite and the governed populace. Every attempt to dislodge him reveals not just the tenacity of his political survival but the inadequacies of the opposition to present a viable alternative.

A Needle’s Edge: The Role of the Somali Prosperity Party

At the heart of this political impasse lies the Somali Prosperity Party (SPP), the unseen force that sustains Mustafe’s hold on power. Often described as a magical entity, the SPP’s influence is subtle yet pervasive, like a whisper in the corridors of power that ensures the camel remains comfortably seated in the palace. The SPP is both an instrument of governance and a symbol of the region’s complex political culture—one where clan dynamics, loyalty, and pragmatism intertwine.

Though corruption and nepotism have arguably hit their peak and seem to be decentralized, a byproduct of a policy aimed at retaining power, Mustafe now faces a critical juncture. The coalition of vested interests—an unimaginable gang of powerful individuals who have long thrived in the shadows—has taken for granted their ability to sustain their self-serving, blood-sucking endeavors. These forces, deeply embedded in the system, may become the greatest obstacle Mustafe will have to overcome if he is to break free of their grip and ensure the region’s governance serves the people, not the few.

The opposition, for all their fervor, finds themselves not just battling Mustafe but the very fabric of political order. Their exasperation—voiced in the comical plea, "This is our last chance, let’s push the camel through the needle!"—speaks to the futility of confronting a system that resists change. When the big guy finally asks, “Are we even sane?” the question resonates not just with those in the room but with the entire region at some points in the nation, wondering whether the struggle for power is itself a form of madness.

Ethiopia and the Region: Power, Poetry, and Paradox

The situation in the Somali Region is, in many ways, a microcosm of Ethiopia’s broader political struggles. Across the nation, leaders like Dr. Abiy Ahmed find themselves navigating the delicate balance between reform and stability, federalism and centralism, unity and diversity. Even Dr. Abiy, as the joke goes, is left scratching his head at the complexity of the situation in the Somali Region, remarking, “There’s no way to untangle this one; better look for a solution from another galaxy!”

Ethiopia’s political reality is one of paradoxes. Leaders who offer the promise of change are often constrained by the weight of history and tradition. Mustafe’s continued presidency is not merely a question of governance but a reflection of Ethiopia’s struggle to reconcile its federal structure with the demands of modern democracy. The camel, ever-present and resilient, embodies the burdens of power, and the needle—the narrow path to reform—remains elusive.

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The Brewing Storm: Stability or Change?

As the political landscape in Ethiopia shifts with growing tensions and uncertainty, the brewing storm of regional and national challenges has made it clear that maintaining the status quo may be the safest course for now. In the Somali Region, where stability is as delicate as a desert breeze, the idea of sudden, radical change carries risks that could unravel the progress made over the past few years. Mustafe, with his deep understanding of the region’s intricate clan dynamics and the hidden intricacies of governance, represents an experienced driver who can guide the Somali Region through this stormy political weather.

The question, then, is not whether Mustafe should remain in power indefinitely but whether the region is ready for an abrupt leadership transition during such a volatile time. For now, the answer seems clear: stability is the most valuable currency. With Mustafe at the wheel, the Somali Region can continue to navigate the turbulent waters of Ethiopian politics, preparing for a future in which new, visionary leadership can emerge. But that future must be built thoughtfully, with the next generation of leaders ready to inherit a region that is stronger, more cohesive, and more prepared for the challenges ahead. Rushing through this process would be risking losing the ground already gained. For now, experience is the wisest compass to lead the way.

Mustafe’s Political Diary: The Missed Opportunities

As President Mustafe continues to hold the reins, it is crucial for him to revisit his political diary and reflect on the missteps and missed opportunities that have marked his tenure. Among the most pressing issues is the imbalance in federal representation, where the Elephant remains underrepresented in key national decision-making processes. This disparity has fueled frustrations among constituents and heightened regional tensions. Additionally, Mustafa's handling of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) has often been criticized as a miscalculated move, shifting between periods of political accommodation and tension that have left many in the region questioning his strategy. The ONLF, a significant political force in the region’s history, remains a delicate issue that could have been leveraged more effectively to unify rather than divide.

If Mustafe is to leave a lasting legacy, he must steer the region toward genuine political reconciliation and ensure that the voices of the Somali people are heard at the federal level. The region stands at a crossroads, and correcting these past missteps is essential for it to move in the right direction. The time has come for him to acknowledge that his preordained leadership—fortified by the unseen powers of the "galaxy"—is not eternal. The next chapter of the Somali Region’s political journey should be built on the lessons learned from his administration’s failings, ensuring that whatever remains of his tenure is spent setting a foundation for future leadership that is equitable, inclusive, and prepared to face the challenges of tomorrow.

The Poetry of Power: A Closing Reflection

In the Somali Region, as in Ethiopia at large, power is a poetic dance. It is not always about the strength to govern but the ability to navigate the narrow spaces between loyalty and leadership, tradition, and transformation. Mustafe, for all his flaws, has mastered this dance, moving with the grace of a camel that knows its place in the desert. The opposition, frustrated and floundering, continue their quixotic quest to push him through the needle's eye, unaware that the true magic lies not in the needle but in understanding the rhythm of the region’s political heartbeat.

As the curtain falls on this long-running political drama, one is left to wonder: Will the camel ever pass through the eye of the needle? Or is the real challenge learning to live with the paradoxes of power, where sometimes, the impossibility of change is itself the most enduring reality?

In the words of Ethiopia’s poets, perhaps the answer lies in the wind, weaving through the deserts of the Somali Region, whispering that true power is not in the destination, but in the journey.

Mohamud A. Ahmed – Cagaweyne

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