Call Me . . . Maybe?

OK, we’re well into the 21st century—a quarter of the way through, to be exact. We live in an incredibly connected world where we send emails, WhatsApp messages, WeChat texts, voice notes, videos, and calls probably hundreds, if not thousands of times a day. You’d think world leaders would be just as capable of hitting “send” or picking up the phone.

But apparently not.

We’ve just wrapped up the Chinese Lunar New Year, a time when fireworks light up the sky to ward off evil spirits. But some of the biggest fireworks I saw weren’t in China—they were set off by President Donald Trump.

Making good on his campaign promise, Trump signed an executive order slapping 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, plus an additional 10% on Chinese goods, bringing total tariffs on Chinese imports to a hefty 35%.

Cue the panic calls.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum each phoned Trump and secured a one-month reprieve from the tariffs. Trump also hinted he’d be speaking with Chinese President Xi Jinping soon. But as the tariff deadline ticked away, the call never happened. Instead, Trump shrugged and said he’d talk to Xi “at an appropriate time.”

So . . . when exactly would that be?

Flashback to early 2023, when the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon floating over America. Then-President Joe Biden tried to smooth things over, saying he’d call Xi “in mid-February.” Spoiler alert: the call never happened. The two leaders finally spoke in person in November 2023, when Xi attended the APEC summit in San Francisco.

So, if spy balloons and tariffs are any indication, a Trump-Xi phone call isn’t happening anytime soon. And that’s probably just fine with Xi.

Why isn’t Xi picking up the phone?

From the outside, China looks unified—a single, monolithic political system where everyone marches in sync. Wrong. The reality is infinitely more complex.

Think of China’s political system like a giant school of fish: at first glance, it moves as one, but in reality, it’s shifting in dozens of directions at once, driven by competing factions, bureaucracies, and power centers.

Let’s break it down: ? The Communist Party – Think of it as the wise old grandparent, overseeing everything with centuries of accumulated wisdom (or at least that’s how it markets itself). ? The Bureaucracy – Divided into power-hungry ministries, each fighting for its own budgets, leadership, and influence. ? The Military – A behemoth in itself, spanning the Army, Air Force, Navy, Missile Defense, and Space Force. ? The Provincial Governments – Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, and every single province, each with its own priorities, interests, and conflicts. ? The State-Owned Enterprises & Private Sector – Competing for power in industries like finance, real estate, and manufacturing. ? Local Governments – Focused on keeping the population happy (or at least quiet), ensuring social stability at all costs.

Exhausted yet? So is Xi.

Managing this political Rubik’s Cube means every decision he makes—especially one involving Trump—has domestic consequences. Xi doesn’t just need to consider how the U.S. will react; he has to worry about how it plays at home, across all these competing factions.

Three Reasons Xi Won’t Call Trump Anytime Soon

1?? Nationalism Matters. Xi is China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. His signature policy? “National Rejuvenation”—essentially a long-term mission to erase China’s ‘Century of Humiliation’ at the hands of Western powers. His supporters won’t tolerate him looking like he’s caving to U.S. pressure. A Trump phone call that ends in more U.S. demands? Not a good look.

2?? More Tariffs Are Coming. Trump has already ordered a review of the Phase One trade deal from his first term, and more tariffs are almost inevitable. Plus, with his cabinet stacked with China hawks like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, any attempt at diplomacy could just blow up in Xi’s face. Why take the risk?

3?? Keeping Trump at Arm’s Length Has Its Advantages. When Trump says the U.S. should ‘own Gaza’ and relocate all Palestinians, China looks like the reasonable global power. Keeping his distance from Trump helps Xi position China as the leader of the Global South—the champion of developing nations that see America’s foreign policy as chaotic and reckless.

Plus, Trump’s sudden cancellation of all U.S. foreign aid is basically an open invitation for China’s diplomats to step in and strike new deals with local governments.

What’s Next?

All of this adds up to one thing: no quick, easy, or friendly Trump-Xi call. The path ahead is unpredictable and volatile—so buckle up.

From Shanghai, Alexander Glos