The Californian Floating Edition

Well a post-GOW and Seanergy 'hi' to everyone,

I was going in a different direction on this one, but the California Energy Commission (CEC) approved the final strategic plan for offshore wind development in fed waters off the California coast and then . This reminded me of an unused article I had written concerning the pathway to commercial floating wind in California at the turn of the year.

So I have dusted this off, to look at whether this strategy answers any of the questions I raised. Warning...it's a long one, so grab that coffee and kick back.

Well this edition brings you:

? My new lead blog: A comparative analysis: The pathway to commercial floating wind vs. AB 525 Offshore Wind Energy Strategic Plan.

? Some news and where you can bump into us...

? ...and of course some ? coffee...a word from our sponsor, plus a new coffee venue in my hometown of 'The Ferry'!

???? ...and the wet experience of Download Festival.

So please read on and share this with colleagues...get them to subscribe!

'Welcome to Floating Wind California, Such a lovely place (such a lovely place), Such a renewable grace, Living it up with Floating Wind California, What a nice surprise (what a nice surprise), Bring your alibis' - (Not) The Eagles

The challenges of floating wind has been in the news recently. We have seen Westwood and GWEC not surprisingly move 2030 targets to the right. Certainly we have had a chilling effect in offshore wind and though economic conditions for projects will improve into H2 2025, the sentiment of developers being more conservative will last longer however. While this has impacted fixed, it has shone an light on floating wind.

GWEC with it's 8.5GW of floating for 2030, to me this is on the optimistic side. But our success will not be 3, 5 or 8GW in 2030 but the viability and year on year growth of constructed capacity.

The industry is remembering that not every GW is equal, a good project is one that can be financed in a specific market. Obviously a huge amount of requirements are bundled up into that statement, but in any pipeline, whether a market's or a developer's there will be good projects, amber projects and well...bad projects. Projects that will go the way of Atlantic Array, Rhiannon, and Navitus Bay. All cancelled for various reasons.

We need floating wind. Fixed will push towards deeper water, but at one point only floating wind will exploit the abundant wind resources off many coasts. But we need good projects. developable, financeable or bankable projects. So how do we get there, especially off California?

The Pathway to Commercial Floating Wind

The journey of floating wind from demonstrative projects to GW-scale commercial projects represents a vital milestone in the successful deployment of floating wind, and so offshore wind in many markets which cannot deploy enough fixed bottom offshore wind due to water depths. As we stand on this cusp of the energy transformation, the key lies in understanding the multifaceted challenges and identifying cost and risk reduction pathways crucial for scaling up floating.

From Demonstration to ‘Stepping stone’ projects

The leap from small-scale demonstrations to mid-sized projects, or ‘stepping stone’ projects is not just a matter of scaling up physical assets. It involves a paradigm shift in project planning and execution within the developer’s project team as well as its financing. Firstly, the supply chain needs to adapt and expand. While current supply chains are tailored for demonstration projects, a ‘stepping stone’ project demands a more robust and scalable supply chain. This transition necessitates strategic partnerships, enhanced logistics capabilities, and investments in specialised equipment and facilities.

Secondly, financing models for mid-sized projects must evolve. Demonstrative projects often rely on government grants and subsidies and can be balance sheet financed. However, as we move towards larger projects, the financial structure needs to be more diverse, incorporating debt financing as well as equity investment, and possibly green bonds. This shift also means a heightened focus on de-risking projects to make them more attractive to a broader range of investors.

The Gigawatt challenge

Scaling up to GW-sized projects presents its own set of challenges. Here, the complexity of project development and management escalates exponentially. Ensuring seamless coordination across various stages of development, construction, and operation becomes more critical than ever.

Cost efficiency is another vital aspect. The larger the scale, the more imperative it becomes to innovate in design and deployment methodologies to drive down costs. This could mean exploring new materials for turbine and platform construction, optimizing design for mass production, or innovating in installation and maintenance techniques.

Risk reduction pathways

1. Technological Innovation: Advancements in turbine technology, mooring systems, key component exchange, and platform designs will play a crucial role in enhancing efficiency and reducing costs. Investing in R&D and fostering collaborations between tech companies and wind energy experts is crucial.

2. Supply Chain Optimisation: Developing a global, robust supply chain capable of handling large-scale projects is essential. This includes localising elements of the supply chain to reduce logistics costs and carbon footprint.

3. Regulatory Frameworks and Policy Support: Clear, supportive policies and regulatory frameworks are vital for the growth of floating wind. This includes streamlined permitting processes and policies that encourage investment and innovation in the sector. EG California desperately needs one or two ‘stepping stone’ projects and appropriate Offtake strike prices to help develop the industry on the US West Coast.

4. Financial Models and Investment: Developing new financial models that can accommodate the scale and risk profile of gigawatt-scale projects is imperative. Encouraging public-private partnerships, and exploring innovative financing options like green bonds, can play a significant role. The IRA and the innovations happening there can help this in the US. ?

5. Stakeholder Engagement and Knowledge Sharing: Engaging with stakeholders - including local communities, governments, and environmental groups - is key to project success. Additionally, sharing knowledge and best practices across the industry will accelerate learning and innovation.

The AB 525 Offshore Wind Energy Strategic Plan published only last week , similarly addresses these areas but with a focus on California's unique context. Let us look to see how well the new strategy aligns with my concerns:

1. Transition from Demonstration to Commercial Projects

I am convinced of the importance of moving from small-scale demonstrations to mid-sized ‘stepping stone’ projects before scaling up to GW-scale commercial projects. This transition requires a robust and scalable supply chain, strategic partnerships, and evolved financing models.

AB 525 Alignment:

Supply Chain Adaptation: The AB 525 plan acknowledges the need for a scalable supply chain. It discusses significant investments in port infrastructure to support offshore wind activities, which is crucial for scaling up from demonstration to commercial projects.

Financing Models: While I emphasised evolving financing models, AB 525 touches on economic and workforce benefits but could expand more on diverse financing mechanisms, such as green bonds or public-private partnerships.

2. Technological Innovation

I proposed that advancements in WTG technology, mooring systems, and platform designs are pivotal for enhancing efficiency and reducing costs.

AB 525 Alignment:

Innovation Focus: The strategic plan does recognise the need for technological advancements in floating offshore wind platforms. It identifies different floating platform designs suitable for California's deep waters and acknowledges ongoing R&D needs.

3. Supply Chain Optimisation

I stressed the importance of developing a global, robust supply chain, including localising elements to reduce logistics costs and carbon footprints.

AB 525 Alignment:

Local Supply Chain Development: AB 525 outlines the necessity for upgrading California’s port infrastructure, which aligns with the goal of creating a local supply chain. It also identifies specific ports like Humboldt and Long Beach as critical sites for offshore wind development.

4. Regulatory Frameworks and Policy Support

I asked for clear, supportive policies and streamlined permitting processes are vital for the growth of floating wind.

AB 525 Alignment:

Regulatory and Policy Framework: The strategic plan emphasizes the complexity of the permitting processes and the need for a coordinated and efficient framework. This includes working with multiple state and federal agencies to streamline approvals, which aligns well with your call for clear regulatory support.

5. Financial Models and Investment

Developing new financial models that accommodate the scale and risk profile of large projects is imperative. I highlight the importance of public-private partnerships and innovative financing options.

AB 525 Alignment:

Economic Benefits and Investment: While the plan outlines potential economic and workforce benefits, it could provide more detail on specific financial models. There is an acknowledgment of the importance of investments in infrastructure, but further emphasis on diverse financing strategies would enhance alignment with your recommendations.

6. Stakeholder Engagement and Knowledge Sharing

Though obvious, I expressed the importance of engaging stakeholders and sharing best practices across the industry are crucial for project success.

AB 525 Alignment:

Stakeholder Engagement: The strategic plan extensively covers stakeholder engagement, particularly with California Native American tribes, local communities, and environmental groups. It highlights the importance of meaningful consultations and developing Community Benefits Agreements (CBAs), reflecting a strong commitment to inclusive development.

...but grids

The main purpose or idea behind the article was to compare my original blog on commercialisation against AB 525, but of course what about grid connection?

Well obviously the AB 525 Strategic Plan does highlight the crucial need for robust transmission infrastructure to support offshore wind projects in California. It notes that the North Coast's relatively isolated grid requires significant new infrastructure, while the South-Central Coast, though more robust, still needs long-term planning for future expansion.

Any consultancy that supported previous auctions will understand this, we did plenty of studies.

The plan emphasises the integration of floating offshore wind turbines through midwater-suspended electrical cables connected to onshore or offshore substations feeding into the bulk transmission grid.

Trying to address the associated risks, the plan underscores the complexities of transmission planning, including environmental and permitting challenges, financial investment needs, and technological reliability. It calls for streamlined permitting processes, substantial funding, and ongoing technological advancements to mitigate these risks.

No real solution per se, just a recognition of the issue. But an offshore grid solution will likely need to be considered seriously.

Conclusion

So in my opinion, the AB 525 Offshore Wind Energy Strategic Plan aligns well with many of the key areas I identified in my above blog. It addresses the need for robust supply chains, technological innovation, regulatory frameworks, and stakeholder engagement.

However, there are some areas where the strategic plan could be enhanced to fully meet the comprehensive vision I have outlined, particularly in 'stepping-stone' projects, expanding on diverse financing models and providing detailed strategies for financial risk management. Overall, the new strategy reflects a strong commitment to developing a sustainable and scalable floating offshore wind industry in California, echoing many of your critical insights.

So while the commercialisation of floating wind is replete with challenges, it also presents unprecedented opportunities. Through collaborative efforts across technology, supply chain, policy, finance, and stakeholder engagement, we can effectively get this exciting segment to where it needs to be. The future of floating wind is not just about harnessing the wind; it's about pioneering a sustainable, scalable model for the world's energy future.

We need Giga Watts, not Braga Watts...good projects.

A bumper crop of recent news and some excellent blogs from OWC and the rest of the ABL Group . Check out the news and insights and reach out if you want to know how we can help you:

1. OWC conducts Black Sea offshore wind feasibility study >> read more
2. OWC and Bridge Wind Management to collaborate on offshore wind investments >> read more
3. ?rsted appoints ABL to provide marine warranty survey >> read more
4. Announcement: A Landmark Decision for Renewable Energy >> read more
5. HEREMA appoints OWC for support in the Wind Resource and Metocean Measurements Strategy (Greece) >> read more
6. Longitude helps power new Greenpeace International vessel >> read more
7. ABL Offshore Wind T&I expert Mike McLachlan ’s awarded the 2024 SOMWS Len Messenger Award >> read more
8. ABL to identify Navigational Risk to German North Sea Offshore Wind Sites >> read more
9. Australia Focus Blog #1: Navigating the Turbulent Waters of Bass Strait for Offshore Wind Construction >> read more
10. Australia Focus Blog #2: Weather Challenges in Bunbury and Their Impact on Offshore Wind Construction >> read more
11. OWC Runner-up in Technical Advisory of the Year at the 2024 Wind Investment Awards >> read more
12. The Impact of CfD (Contracts for Difference) on Italy’s FER2 Decree >> read more
13. OWC appoints Rubin Sidhu as US head of onshore renewables >> read more
14. ABL electrifying zero-emission offshore charging station >> read more
15. ABL to support maritime decarbonisation in the Maldives >> read more
16. From Price to Progress: Impacts of evolving offshore wind auction criteria >> read more
17. OWC ramps up Celtic Sea presence >> read more

This edition comes to you powered by KAWA Coffee Ltd . Thanks again to KAWA founder Regan Black for his continued support of this Newsletter...it runs on coffee...

I am kind of annoyed as I had not realised that a new coffee shop and roaster, Maison Dieu had opened up in Broughty Ferry, my wee home town. Now we have a range of coffee shops in 'The Ferry', from the usual international chain to local café. But none that are also a speciality coffee café. So I popped in and bought a few of their roasted beans. Labelled with hand written roasting dates, as they say 'no roasting date on your coffee bag? No Bueno!'

What is also great, is that they hold events for coffee nerds; Barista Masterclasses, running clubs, tasting evenings and social mixers. In the Ferry café and in Brechin, their home town.

So if you are in Brechin or Broughty Ferry, make sure you visit.

The final word from our sponsors, KAWA Coffee Ltd, if you are in Portobello, make sure you visit: The Little Green Van (on Portobello prom), Root Down Portobello (79 Portobello High St). Portobello Market, Malvarosa (262 Portobello High St), The Beach House Cafe (Portobello prom), and The Willow. Visit the KAWA website for full details of the locations and how to order your roasted beans.

New logo ???? !

So how does everyone like the new logo?

Really pleased with it, and delighted with the work from renowned UK underground death metal graphic artist Sludgework Meg .

Now the loudest, mosts eriously caffeinated offshore wind newsletter on LinkedIn has a logo to match!

Download Festival

So onto Download Festival. Hmmmm. A bit wet.

Positives:

Pantera were brilliant. I was skeptical of them touring without the brothers, (For the fans, for the legacy...for the pension!), but it was a fantastic set. Zakk did not ruin things, thought he had Darren's tone down well and did not do too many signature pull offs. Got a ticket for the UK tour already (at eye watering prices...).

Mr Bungle. The set for the weekend for me. Insane, mad, hilarious. Likely the most Mike Patton project for Mike Patton. Potentially the only opportunity to see the The Raging Wrath of the Easter Bunny Demo re-recoding line up. But what a line up. Genius.

(???? to Ioannis Papadopoulos )

URNE. If you mix Mastodon, Gojira and Metallica into a blender, this is what you get. One of the UK's most impressive young bands.

Many more great bands.

Negatives:

The rain. The idea that throwing some straw down does the trick (every year guys?), the massive amount 'technical issues' that delayed and shortened sets, the poor disabled / accessibility infrastructure and organisation (again).

You cannot legislate for the weather, but the venue has always been a poor one for drainage and June is a WET month!

Well, that was my 40th year at a metal festival at Donington Racing Track. That is mainly why I attended. I will likely travel further afield next year for my early summer festival. I am looking longingly at Metaldays in Slovenia...Great to attend with Keilan and Raymond, great company lads.

3 weeks and it's Bloodstock Festival however. ??????

So let me know and we can try a meet up.

Well that's it for this edition.

Thanks for spending some time reading it. Please subscribe, comment, and share with colleagues.

So stay safe, enjoy life, and catch you next time and at events in the real world. ????

Cheers