Is Calexit a Joke and What Will It mean to Wineries?

This much I am sure of...that the anger that is being displayed across United States will allow those in favor of California seceding from the United States to get enough signatures for this referendum be on the fall voting ballot.

Before everyone starts screaming about how crazy this idea is remember that weeks leading up to the vote by the citizens of Great Britain to leave the European Union it was thought to have no chance of succeeding at all. Even the day of the vote it was assumed by the media that it would fail...but it didn't. The UK was already a sovereign nation with its own currency (the British pound) so the changes hasn't been to disruptive, at least so far.

I see one of two things happening; the Calexit vote will fail and be a major setback to the liberal effort in California, however if it succeeds there will be considerable changes.

The first major change in California would be the shutting down and moving of all military bases. The shift of the naval base in San Diego will have serious repercussions.

If California should leave the Union all military contractors will either need to leave California or shut their doors. The US military would never use goods produced outside the US. I also think there will be a lot of bad blood so that would be another reason not to use these products. The economic impact of these two events would be serious.

There will be a profound immigration of similar thinking people leaving east coast states and moving to California.

The effect on the 4,000+ California will be profound. Like all imported wines each bottle of wine produced in California will need to apply to the TTB for label approval. Even if there is no backlash against these producers it will be from several months to a half year before the TTB could catch up. Currently imports from non-domestic producers see an increase of 4 times the bottle price to the US retail shelves...it shouldn't be that much but I would not count on a low tariff on California wines. There are countless small producers who would never survive the wait and price increases. Again, while that COLA approval was happening those in the other 49 states won't stop drinking wine. Mostly, they will have no choice but to go today's imported wines. Will Americans shift back with significant price increases to drinking California wine???

Lastly I wonder about those counties that are primarily "red" (versus "blue"), will they stay or go (or form their own "new" state)? If you want to laugh at what I have written please review all the press article written prior to the Brexit vote, you may not be laughing too long.