A calendar full of uncertainties
Thomas Wilson
Yacht industry-Yacht production and selling- Race coach-Coaching professional Yachtmaster instructor-Yachtmaster Ocean-Master 200GT
Below is a list of major events that will take place during the European political agenda of 2017:
- 15 March Netherlands Election
- 31 March UK Article 50 deadline
- 23 April France Presidential election first round
- 7 May France Presidential election second round
- 24 September Germany Parliamentary election
Other events: Italy elections Likely no earlier than June 2017
A few years back, most of these events would have been predictable:
- The Dutch would have continued their everyday life
- France would have seen a candidate from one of the main parties win
- Merkel would be guaranteed strong support and another term
Instead, as we enter March, the political scene is full of uncertainties, and no result is predictable anymore.
Could the first shock come from the Netherlands?
Polls have long predicted that the anti-Islam, anti-EU Geert Wilders’ populist Party for Freedom (PVV) could emerge as the country’s largest party. The difference between the Netherlands and other countries is that the rise of the PVV would be due to a fractioning of the Dutch political system rather than a consolidation into one strong party. We have all seen that coalitions make it difficult to run a country effectively.
Next election of significance: France
A strong showing by the Front National and Marine Le Pen seems certain. Will it be enough to cause the biggest shock ever to hit the EU?
The French political establishment is in a panic (as well as the EU) and trying to take every measure to derail her campaign. Such an approach could backfire and help a further rise of nationalism and anti-establishment movements in France. We saw it happen in the USA.
Should Marine Le Pen win, she has proposed to hold a referendum on Europe: Frexit.
The most important difference between Frexit and Brexit is that the main supporters of Frexit come from the youth of France, whereas the elders of Britain were the main supporters of Brexit. As the youth of Europe (sub 25years old) is the segment of the population suffering the most from unemployment, such a reaction comes as no surprise.
Germany: Uncertainty has appeared on the horizon
A few months back when Angela Merkel mentioned that she would stand for another term, most newspapers were declaring her the automatic winner.
A lot has happened since. On one side the Social Democratic Party is making significant gains and on the other, the more extreme parties, both far-right and far-left, are also gaining momentum.
As a result, the German federal election of 2017 is no longer a slam-dunk.
The other problem for Merkel is that this election is in September and a lot can happen in 7 months.
A very non–German trait, lack of planning when allowing the substantial waves of immigrants into Germany, is starting to backfire.
Figures for the cost of the migrant crisis vary, but all of them are horrifically high. It certainly helps the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AFD) party.
More than one million migrants entered Germany last year, and some regions have complained that they are overwhelmed and without a plan for them. There has also been series of assaults on women by North African men in various parts of the country and mainly in Cologne. As a result, concerns about crime has mounted throughout Germany. The head of the German police admitted that there are as many as 40 no-go zones across the country.
This problem is likely to be compounded by a decline in German exports in 2017. As the EU is built around Germany being a massive exporter, such a drop could have catastrophic consequences.
A German friend once made a great remark about Germany:
“Germans are very patient people and can endure a lot, until one day they snap…”
Is Germany reaching the snapping point?
Intertwined in this agenda is the ongoing process and debate of Brexit and an ongoing crisis in Italy and Greece.
The net result is a highly volatile and unpredictable environment. Investors will need nerves of steel or rather even better, nerves of gold.
With all the uncertainty, investors need to consider their options and consider investing in gold. Especially physical gold. Gold is a sensible way to diversify and protect a portfolio where the ever growing uncertainty of the Euro lies.