Calculating Success Post-COVID: How Estimators Combat High Prices & Long Lead Times

SKYROCKETING PRICES, AGONIZING LEAD TIMES. How do estimators navigate today’s post-COVID climate? Architect Ricardo Lopez and Civil Engineer Sergio Ortiz lays bare the stark differences in the industry before and after COVID; how they’re coping with those changes; and, what it takes to survive it all.?

Estimating: the wild art of crunching numbers. To Architect Ricardo Lopez-Molinar and Civil Engineer Sergio Ortiz—estimators for a general contractor and subcontractor respectively—that definition has only rung stronger after the pandemic.

“Before COVID, they (subcontractors) can hold a price for thirty to sixty days. Now, it’s really hard to get somebody who can hold the price for more than ten days,” lamented Ricardo. Working for a general contractor, he finds bidding to be a tougher sport now than it was pre-pandemic.?

Sergio, estimator for Aztec Masonry & Concrete (AMC), has witnessed up to a 40% rise in the cost of concrete per barrel and agonizing lead times for rebar. “They’re hard to predict,” he put simply. Prices change erratically almost every month, and vendors rarely hold prices for the long-term.

Unstable costs and prolonged lead times trigger a chain of—sometimes catastrophic—events in a project's life cycle. Inconsistent numbers risk change orders, and late deliveries push the construction schedule back.?

Many owners unwantedly hit the brakes on projects; skeetering away when faced with bid offers that are outrageously higher than what they had fantasized.

How They’re Coping?

1. Prepare. Prepare. And Prepare.

Ricardo fiercely advocates for transparency in pre-construction meetings. An honest GC assures clients of contingencies for materials that could hurt the project schedule: materials or equipment with low availability, have long fabrication times, or exceed the owner’s preferred budget. Be cognizant of what these materials are and identify alternatives early on.?

“We bring all these items to the table and assure the owner and the architect that we have a solution for every single item,” Ricardo iterated.

2. Be fast. Not furious.?

Before COVID, owners took their sweet time before awarding a project. Today, that luxury is no more. Owners are encouraged to award the project as quickly as possible so that the GC can lock-in prices from subs.?That sense of urgency goes for everyone in the team. Communicate changes swiftly and encourage the team to do the same.

More communication means lesser headaches; it pays to always be on your feet! But it is important to keep in mind that the entire industry is reeling from the pandemic’s aftermath. You just might come up with the perfect solution before breaking the bad news—all because you kept your cool.?

3. Love estimating, and estimating will love you back.

It takes a special breed to enjoy crunching numbers for construction materials. What seems tedious for everyone else is just another meaningful day at work for Ricardo and Sergio.

Ricardo loves driving past a finished project thinking “I didn’t build it, but I was part of it.” Though he never picked up a tool himself, he was pivotal in securing a project for everyone else to equip their tools for.

“You fall in love with estimating. The first time you get successful, you get hungry. Then it moves you to keep estimating," agreed Sergio.

COVID’s economic repercussions made their craft more challenging, but the impact they make in El Paso and beyond keeps them going.?

So, what makes a great estimator??

A sharp eye for detail. “You gotta be very good at math (…) but more importantly, you have to be very good at reading,” Sergio advised. Pay attention to the fine print.?

Always communicative. Keeping communication lines open wins projects and preserves professional relationships. A good estimator ensures the that subcontractors and clients are always kept on the loop.?

Patience. A million spreadsheets, plans & specs to flip through, and another million phone calls to make; you sure need patience–and a whole lot of it.?

As El Paso residents, Ricardo and Sergio takes pride in knowing that their sleepless nights and tedious calculations help their beloved region reach greater heights.