CA Surplus & FDI, Raw Food Exports, Customs Delays, Ind-Pak Smog, Pak IT Exports, BD Rice Tenders.

TOPLINE

• Pakistan's current account posted a surplus of $218 million in the first four months of FY25, driven by a 36% increase in workers' remittances, which reached $11.8 billion. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan increased by 32% in the first four months of FY25, totaling $904.3 million, compared to $683.5 million in the same period last year.
• Pakistan's raw food exports rose 21.73% to $2.36 billion in July-October FY25, compared to $1.94 billion last year. In FY24, exports totaled $8 billion, up from $5.8 billion. Sugar exports surged by 413.46% to 187,247 tonnes, mainly to Afghanistan, while rice exports grew by 52.53%, with basmati rice shipments up 47% in quantity and 66% in value.
• Changes in Customs' Green Channel parameters have caused delays, with clearance rates dropping from 47% to below 26%. This has led to financial losses for importers and delays in the supply of medicines, steel, and pulses. Containers face up to seven days delay.
• The Punjab government announced the reopening of schools across the province, except in Lahore and Multan divisions as Lahore’s AQI has dropped out of the hazardous category for the first time in 12 days. AQI readings in the capital New Delhi hit their highest this year as visibility dropped to 100 m in Delhi. Delhi’s 24-hour air quality index (AQI) reading was at 484, classified as “severe plus”, the highest this year.
• Pakistan's IT exports grew 35% to $1.21 billion in July-October 2024-25, driven by a broader client base, relaxed retention limits, and exchange rate stability. October exports reached $330 million, a 39% year-on-year increase.
• Bangladesh's state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers due by Dec. 2. The move follows the destruction of 1.1 million metric tons of rice due to floods, leading to increased rice imports amid rising food prices.

AGRI-UPDATES - COMMODITIES, POLICY & DEVELOPMENTS

• Daily Rates: Find the following rates on the hyperlinked titles: [Shipping Intelligence], [Pakistan Stock Exchange], [Kibor International Kibor Rates], [BRIndex100 & BR Sectoral Indices], [Activities of Karachi Port Trust, Port Qasim]
• Textile Exports Grow 5.9%: Pakistan's textile sector achieved a 5.9% month-on-month growth in export revenues in October 2024, reaching $1.56 billion, and a 7% year-on-year increase compared to October 2023. Despite this positive trend, textile exporters express skepticism over the accuracy of these figures, citing challenges in managing export orders and comparing the situation to perceived discrepancies in official inflation data. [ET]
• Cotton Arrivals Rise 22% but Fall 34% YoY: Raw Cotton (Phutti) arrivals at ginning factories reached 4.894 million bales by Nov 15, marking a 22% rise over the last three fortnights but 34% lower year-on-year. Punjab contributed 2.245 million bales and Sindh 2.649 million, with Sanghar and Bahawalnagar leading production. The textile industry procured 4.14 million bales. [Dawn] [The News]
• Raw Food Exports Up 21.73% in FY25: Pakistan's raw food exports rose 21.73% to $2.36 billion in July-October FY25, compared to $1.94 billion last year. In FY24, exports totaled $8 billion, up from $5.8 billion. Sugar exports surged by 413.46% to 187,247 tonnes, mainly to Afghanistan, while rice exports grew by 52.53%, with basmati rice shipments up 47% in quantity and 66% in value. Despite rising food prices, raw food exports have continued to increase. [Dawn]
• Agricultural Machinery Imports Up 4.3% in October 2024: Rs 2.75 billion was the value of agricultural machinery and implements imported in Oct 2024, up 4.3% compared to imports of Rs 2.64 billion last year. [ET]
• Sports Goods Exports Drop 9.8% in October 2024: Rs 8.98 billion was the value of sports goods exported in Oct 2024, down 9.8% from exports of Rs 9.95 billion last year, according to the PBS. [ET]
• Opinion: Pakistan’s Tobacco Control Dilemma - “A comprehensive approach to tobacco control in Pakistan will require aligning with international best practices, including maintaining strong leadership roles like the FCTC focal point, enforcing pack size regulations, and strengthening restrictions on underage smoking. By restoring this critical position and ensuring its independence, Pakistan can reinforce its dedication to public health, both for its citizens and in line with its global obligations.” - By Radma Nouman Shah [BR]

ENERGY - WEATHER, WATER & POWER

• Government Loses Rs 1.95 Billion: The government lost Rs 1.95 billion in fees to a Financial Advisor for a failed PIACL transaction that attracted a single Rs 10 billion bid against an Rs 85 billion reserve. Minister Aleem Khan assured the Senate committee of improved oversight and hiring experienced advisors for future privatizations, including DISCOs. [BR]
• Border Towns Strike Over Trade Restrictions: A shutter-down strike was observed in border towns of Rakhshan and Makran divisions to protest restrictions on Pakistan-Iran border trade, including a three-day weekly halt and oil transport curbs. The closure has disrupted Iranian fuel supplies, left thousands jobless, and crippled local economies dependent on border trade. [Dawn]
• Customs Green Channel Changes Cause Delays: Changes in Customs' Green Channel parameters have caused delays, with clearance rates dropping from 47% to below 26%. This has led to financial losses for importers and delays in the supply of medicines, steel, and pulses. Containers now face up to seven days of delay for clearance, overwhelming port operators. [Dawn] [ET]
• Pakistan to Sell 35% of Gas Reserves to Raise $4-5 Billion: A committee led by Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar decided to sell 35% of newly discovered gas reserves to private companies via bidding to tackle liquidity issues and attract $4-5 billion in offshore exploration investment. The proposal, including a cap of 100 million standard cubic feet per day for the first year, will be submitted to ECNEC for approval. [Dawn]
• Punjab Allocates Rs 5 Billion for Landfill Projects: Punjab has allocated over Rs 5 billion for landfill sites and material recovery facilities in Faisalabad and Gujranwala. The projects will be developed with national and international firms on a design, build, and operate basis. Rs 4.51 billion is allocated for Faisalabad, and Rs 504.57 million for Gujranwala. [ET]
• Residents Demand Action Against Illegal LPG Sales: Residents of Islamabad and Rawalpindi are calling for action against illegal LPG and petrol sales, citing safety risks. Unregulated vendors in areas like Bari Imam and Koral are selling gas without proper precautions, raising concerns of accidents, especially with the approaching winter and expected gas shortages. [ET]
• Task Force Approves Gas Reserves Sale to Private Firms: A task force led by Deputy PM Ishaq Dar has approved selling 35% of future gas discoveries to private companies through bidding, aiming to attract $5 billion in investments. Despite opposition from Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik, the move is expected to address gas sector challenges, reduce circular debt, and help resolve the energy crisis. [ET]
• Pakistan Launches Maritime Policy with Tax Incentives: Pakistan's Maritime Affairs Minister Qaiser Ahmed Sheikh announced a new maritime policy offering tax incentives to foreign investors. He highlighted Pakistan's strategic location for access to China, Central Asia, and the Middle East and encouraged international shipping companies to invest. [ET]

PAKISTAN - ECONOMICS, POLITICS & SECURITY

• PTI Vows Islamabad Sit-In Continuation: PTI vowed to continue its Islamabad sit-in until its "stolen" mandate is restored, the Constitution upheld, and Imran Khan freed. Declaring Nov 24 a "day of deliverance," PTI pledged a massive protest against the government. It also criticized the Sharif family over Hasan Nawaz's bankruptcy ruling in the UK. Islamabad police have requested extensive anti-riot gear, including 40,000 teargas shells, 50,000 rubber bullets, and 22,000 security personnel, to manage PTI’s Nov 24 protest. They also sought 1,200 containers, anti-riot kits, and funds for meals and transport for deployed forces. The administration has extended a ban on 10 activities under Section 144 for two months.? [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET]
• ADB Delegation Discusses Governance Strengthening: An ADB delegation, led by Tariq H. Niazi, met Finance Minister Aurangzeb to discuss initiatives for strengthening governance and fiscal management in developing countries. Aurangzeb also held a virtual meeting with the State Bank Governor and PBA Chairman Zafar Masud to review financing progress for priority sectors and discuss building an inclusive financial ecosystem. [BR] [BR]
• PM Shehbaz Pushes for Saudi Loan Deal Closure: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged the early closure of a $1.2 billion Saudi loan deal and directed tax authorities to present a plan to address the revenue shortfall, ensuring the IMF programme stays on track. Officials reported no major concerns from the IMF, but issues like tax collection shortfalls, external financing gaps, and full implementation of the National Fiscal Pact need resolution. [ET]
• Ahsan Iqbal Sees Opportunity in Trump's Second Term: Pakistan's Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal called US President-elect Donald Trump's second term a "unique opportunity" to strengthen ties with Washington, emphasizing the importance of mutual respect and constructive engagement. At a USAID event, he advocated for expanding bilateral trade, enhancing market access, and pursuing joint ventures in key sectors like IT, agriculture, and manufacturing. [Dawn]
• Punjab Reopens Schools After Smog Relief: The Punjab government announced the reopening of schools across the province, except in Lahore and Multan divisions, starting Tuesday, due to improvements in air quality. The decision follows a period of school closures due to worsening smog, with Lahore’s air quality index (AQI) showing some improvement, dropping out of the hazardous category for the first time in 12 days. [Dawn]
• Moody's Warns of Rising Interest Costs: Moody's warns that Pakistan's interest costs will rise to nearly 40% of total spending in 2025, up from around 25% in 2021, due to new multilateral financing conditions. While Pakistan secured a $7 billion IMF programme to ease liquidity pressures, meeting the conditions of this financing could increase social risks and may not fully replace maturing debt. [BR]
• FDI in Pakistan Rises 32%: Despite a decline in October 2024 FDI and challenges in portfolio investment, overall foreign investment surpassed $1 billion, driven by strong FDI inflows. [BR] [Dawn]
• Current Account Posts $218 Million Surplus: Pakistan's current account posted a surplus of $218 million in the first four months of FY25, driven by a 36% increase in workers' remittances, which reached $11.8 billion. This marked a significant turnaround from a $1.528 billion deficit in the same period last year, with October 2024 seeing the highest monthly remittance inflow of over $3 billion. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
• IT Exports Grow 35% in FY25: Pakistan's IT exports grew 35% to $1.21 billion in July-October 2024-25, driven by a broader client base, relaxed retention limits, and exchange rate stability. October exports reached $330 million, a 39% year-on-year increase, marking the 13th consecutive month of growth. [Dawn] [ET]

INTERNATIONAL - MARKET, POLITICS, SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT

• Israeli Genocide: Israeli military strikes in Gaza and Beirut on Monday killed 30 people, including six in attacks on tents housing displaced families. In Gaza, four Palestinians, including two children, were killed in an airstrike on a teForeign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan increased by 32% in the first four months of FY25, totaling $904.3 million, compared to $683.5 million in the same period last year. nt camp in Al-Mawasi, while two others died in shelters in Rafah and another in drone fire. In Beit Lahiya, an Israeli missile hit a house, killing at least two and injuring several others. A separate Israeli airstrike on a residential building in Beit Lahiya on Sunday caused numerous casualties. [Dawn]
• Lula Launches Global Alliance Against Poverty: At the G20 summit in Rio, Brazil’s President Lula launched a global alliance to combat poverty and hunger, supported by 81 countries. Discussions on trade, climate, and security were influenced by US president-elect Trump’s return to power and his proposed policy changes, including tariffs and a new approach to the Ukraine conflict. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
• Kremlin Accuses Biden of Escalating Ukraine Conflict: The Kremlin accused President Biden of escalating the Ukraine war by allowing Ukraine to use long-range US missiles against Russia. This follows a missile attack on Odessa, with Ukraine seeking such strikes to defend against Russian bombardments. Biden's authorization, aimed at countering North Korea's support for Russia, has drawn criticism, including from Donald Trump Jr., who accused Biden of provoking World War III. [Dawn] [ET] [ET]
• Bangladesh Seeks Rice Imports After Flood Losses: Bangladesh's state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers due by Dec. 2. The move follows the destruction of 1.1 million metric tons of rice due to floods, leading to increased rice imports amid rising food prices. [BR]
• Delhi Switches to Online Classes Amid Severe Smog: India's capital switched to online classes on Monday due to worsening smog, with pollution levels soaring over 60 times the WHO's daily limit. PM2.5 pollutants peaked at 907 micrograms per cubic meter, far exceeding the WHO's "unhealthy" threshold of 15. Some areas recorded even higher levels, reaching 980 micrograms, as hazardous conditions smothered the city. [ET] [PT]
• Gold Prices Rebound After Losses: Gold prices rebounded on Monday after six consecutive sessions of losses, boosted by a pause in the US dollar’s rally and anticipation of comments from Federal Reserve officials on interest rate policy. Spot gold rose 1.3% to $2,593.32 per ounce, while US gold futures climbed 1.1% to $2,597.80. [BR]
• Oil Prices Rise Amid Tensions: Oil prices rose by about $2 a barrel on Monday following the halt of crude production at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield and escalated tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war. Brent crude increased by 2.8% to $73.04 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.8% to $68.90 a barrel. [BR]
• Opinion: Trump’s Win a Worry for an Already Struggling Wind Industry - “Faced with rising costs and thin margins, wind energy developers have lately been reducing their ambitions. By raising prices and slowing the costly introduction of ever-larger turbines, companies have recovered financial health, although profits are still thin for an industry that needs to keep investing in new plants and technology to maintain the double-digit growth of recent years. Vestas, based in Denmark, can be considered emblematic of the wind industry. Last week, it reported a profit of 127 million euros on €5.2 billion in revenue for the third quarter — not big money, but an improvement on the loss of €1.6 billion in 2022.” - By Stanley Reed [NYT]

OPINION(S) & REMAINDERS

• PTA to Block Non-Registered VPNs: The PTA announced that non-registered VPNs will stop working after the Nov 30 deadline, focusing only on registering commercial VPNs used by businesses. The Senate committee questioned the legality of blocking non-commercial VPNs and referred the matter to the law ministry for further review. [Dawn] [ET]
• Jazz Invests Rs 33 Billion in Digital Ecosystem: Jazz invested over Rs 33 billion in 2024 to boost Pakistan’s digital ecosystem, contributing Rs 97 billion in taxes. Rs 41 billion was spent on expanding high-speed mobile broadband, R&D, and supporting startups. [Dawn]
• CCP Approves Aquashore Acquisition: The Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) has approved Aquashore SA’s acquisition of a 50% stake in Total Parco Pakistan Limited (TPPL) from TotalEnergies Marketing Services. This follows a series of high-profile petroleum sector transactions, including Saudi Aramco’s purchase of a 40% stake in GO Petroleum and Wafi Energy’s acquisition of a controlling stake in Shell Pakistan. [BR]
• Opinion: A Plan to Combat Smog in Punjab - “The smog that engulfs Punjab every winter has grown from an environmental issue into a full-scale crisis, suffocating millions and jeopardizing public health and livelihoods. Lahore, in particular, has become synonymous with hazardous air quality, with PM 2.5 levels frequently exceeding 136 μg/m3, a staggering 27 times higher than the World Health Organization’s safe limit. The path forward requires bold, visionary leadership and a collective commitment to change. Punjab and indeed Pakistan must act now, not just to clear its air but to secure the health and well-being of future generations.” - By Sajid Mehmood Qazi [BR]