Climate Change and Security in Africa

“A regular fighter who discards peace will be fought by his anger”. This African proverb underscores the high value of peace. So valuable is peace that even battle-hardened fighters desire it. It, therefore, goes without question that all legal avenues to pursue it need to be exploited to the fullest. Climate action is one of these avenues. But why is peace so valuable? ?

Africa, a region that already lags the rest of the globe in actualizing the SDGs and in which progress has stagnated, suffers dire losses from conflict. Currently, about 30% of countries in the region are afflicted by conflict, and this causes a 2.5% lower annual growth relative to a no-conflict scenario. Conflict and fragile countries lose an opportunity to double their GDP over 20 years. Cumulatively, Africa loses an estimated 15% of its GDP every year because of conflict. The losses suffered by some of the region’s hotspots over the years are typical, considering that conflict depletes precious resources needed to address critical socio-economic priorities of these countries.

As dire as these losses are, climate change comes in as a risk multiplier, with already highly vulnerable regions in the developing world bearing the brunt. The science tells us that while climate change is projected to shrink incomes globally by 23% every year, incomes in developing economies already disproportionately vulnerable will decline by a monstrous 75%. Africa’s economies face a shrinkage of up to 15% in the next nine years and 50 – 85% by 2050. These losses heighten the risk of conflict through competition for diminishing resources on one side and the loss of traditional livelihoods, which encourages some individuals to explore membership in armed groups as a potential alternate source of income

Studies show that 80% of countries host the most multilateral peace operations personnel are highly exposed to climate change. Approximately 250 million people are projected to suffer from water and food insecurity during the 21st century because of climate change. ?Two corollaries are deducible from this situation. First, combating climate change in Africa is strategic to tackling conflict and should become a critical peace-building strategy globally. Second, the primary driver of risks is a low socio-economic base. Therefore, climate action that should be fostered is that which directly accelerates the realization of socio-economic development priorities. I will dwell on how militaries can engage and collaborate with Africa in driving the above two dimensions of climate action. And for this, I will share the following takeaways.

Moving from talk to action

First, to effectively address the nexus of climate change & conflict, we need a paradigm shift in the narrative and deployment of military resources. Whenever militaries are engaged, we think of the deployment and use of armaments. However, what we increasingly see in modern conflicts across Africa, especially terrorism, is that the use of military force has not been 100%. Military combined with ideological counter-narratives has also not delivered 100%. It is time that this arsenal is enriched with an additional tool underpinned by an insightful African proverb that says, “money is sharper than the sword”. Up to 85% of recruits to popular terrorist organizations have finished secondary school but with low access to income & employment opportunities. With the youngest population on the one hand and with the highest climate vulnerability, Africa bears high risk and urgently needs this socio-economic paradigm addressed.

?The SAHEL provides a typical case study to demonstrate this nexus of climate change leading to socio-economic distress and, in turn, fuelling conflict due to diminished opportunities. Where people lack socio-economic opportunities, their stake in a peaceful society is diminished. In other words, they have little to lose in the absence of peace. Let’s face it – the SAHEL emits less than 3% of the greenhouse gases that just one industrialized country emits, but temperatures are rising 1.5 times faster than the global average. The Sahel is experiencing extreme temperatures, fluctuating rainfall, and droughts, which degrade land, change grazing patterns, and reduce water supply for both animals and people. Just one country, for instance, loses up to 100,000 hectares of arable land every year. Such losses have jeopardized food and livelihood security, driven strife, competition for limited opportunities, and compounded insecurity. Deploying military solutions has had a sub-par impact. Tactical successes do not translate into overall progress. For example, over seven years of military operations by local forces of the Sahel, combined with international military support, has yielded minimal improvements. Jihadist attacks have increased five times, including killings in January 2022, and inter-ethnic violence has ballooned.

The message is simple – creating socio-economic opportunities for people will be a critical strategy to incentivize peace-building as communities will find a stake in maintaining peace. And how climate action can unlock such opportunities is vital. These need not be complex, capital-intensive solutions. For example, just 0.3% of the sun in the SAHEL region has been equated as nearly equivalent to all of Spain’s energy needs. Decentralizing affordable solar dryers to pastoralist communities – where over 60% of the population are engaged enables them to dress their animals before droughts and enable them to dry and preserve the meat can potentially reduce depreciation by up to 6 times. This translates to more incomes and savings for communities, incentivizing locally generated peace and even dissuading the temptation of being lured into terrorism and crime to earn an income. Militaries the globe over are known to be repositories of the best talent and resources a country has to offer. It will be good to have this socio-economic dimension become part and parcel of security collaborations in Africa, in addition to the ideological & classical tactical responses.??

Second, the focus of actions should be to strengthen the informal sector and youth-driven enterprises that deliver on-demand, market viable climate solutions. To be impactful in any venture, priority must be on an area of strength. Africa’s economic participation comprises up to 80% of informal sector players and youth, who at 60% form the most significant group of implementers. These critical constituencies have hitherto not featured in the climate and environmental action mainstream. This is an opportunity for climate action that has so far remained untapped. For example, while mainly being informal, the charcoal industry in Africa is responsible for adding over $20billion to the continent’s economy. It is also at the core of fuelling terrorist activity.

For example, in East Africa, the Al Shabab terror organization generates over $380 million every year from the illicit charcoal trade. But what happens if the market shifts to an alternative product? This is what climate action solutions of waste-recovery to clean cooking fuel briquettes present. While clean cooking briquettes have clear market advantages in terms of being up to 2times cheaper than charcoal, clear climate advantages by minimizing forest degradation, which is the primary driver of land-based emissions that account for over 50% of Africa’s emissions, and apparent health benefits by reducing indoor pollution that kills up to 700,000 precious souls each year in Africa, availability of this alternative is at a lowly 1%. Engaging to incentivize the informal sector that produces nearly all the charcoal in Africa, to shift their business models towards climate solutions of waste recovery to fuel briquettes, to then change consumer preferences towards fuel briquettes will go a long way in stymieing an easy source of revenue for terror groups across Africa. This dimension should be a subject of economic collaboration between militaries and African countries towards addressing the climate change and conflict nexus in Africa.

“It is better to live like a lion for one day rather than 100 years as a sheep. In my understanding, this African proverb would be an ideal mindset to champion in any successful military operation, given the grave yet essential responsibilities you undertake towards peace. Today, I call upon you to use the same motto in executing the tenets of addressing climate change and conflict nexus. In short, failure is and should not be an option.

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