C for COVID-19, C for Crisis: Is there a need for Plan C?

So, C for COVID-19 and C for Crisis. Does this mean something, or anything, or signify any meaningful correlation? Well, that’s not my point. I wanted to start my article like that, so I have. 

However, there is too much of C connected with this concerning situation of ‘C’orona virus. For example, in terms of individuals, Vitamin ‘C’ effectively helps in terms of building up one's immune system during a pandemic crisis. In terms of businesses, the immediate thing that small and large organizations need now is ‘C’ash. Ofcourse, cash is king, but it is the same instrument in these times that is a virus-carrier. But hold one, this pandemic is also a blessing in many ways.

If you remember, SARS epidemic in 2003 led Alibaba become a $470 billion company.

Let’s move further. I attended a Crisis Leadership session, hosted by Harvard Business School (HBS) for leaders from Asia. I have a few take-home points from that, and some reflections that I want to share with you. Dutch Leonard HBS faculty says that COVID-19 is a medical phenomenon, but the COVID-19 crisis goes far beyond this. I am sure, we all have our bit of fears of recession, depression, and maybe oppression, or suppression, and some other ‘sions’. However, this time is extraordinary. We are talking about one government, one planet. We are talking about one currency around the world, as United Nations hinted on yesterday. I can more than ever, relate to the importance of Distributed Leadership, where leadership has nothing to do with the top, and the most powerful. Amy Edmondson, another HBS faculty member, author of The Fearless Organization book, says Psychological Safety (people need to feel safe and secure) is more significant than immediate innovation.

As a doctoral candidate, let me also put some research framework to frame this crisis. Timothy Coombs in 1995 proposed Situational Crisis Communication Theory (SCCT). As per his theory, effective crisis response depends on the assessment of the situation. He distinguishes three clusters of crises: (a) Victim: where the organization is a victim of the crisis (e.g. natural disasters, rumours), (b) Accident: where the organizational actions leading to the crisis were unintentional (e.g. equipment or product failure), and (c) Intentional: where the organization knowingly took inappropriate risk. As per this theory, many organizations now fall in the ‘Victim’ cluster of the crisis, but moving beyond COVID-19, they will witness ‘Accident’ and ‘Intentional’ cluster of crisis, which will have major repercussions, some being illustrated below.

McKinsey in one of their recent whitepapers on COVID-19 suggest that this massive scale of the outbreak and its sheer unpredictability makes it challenging for executives to respond. It is leading to a ‘landscape scale’ crisis, which is an unexpected event or sequence of events of enormous scale and overwhelming speed, resulting in a high degree of uncertainty that gives rise to disorientation, a feeling of lost control, and strong emotional disturbance. Similarly, Wall Street Journal in the present scenario quotes that rather than holding fast to the first impression and analysis of the crisis, be flexible to embrace new information as it comes along. This is similar to action research, in academic lingo.

Before I finish this short article, let me touch upon a few other C’s. First, C for Civic Sense:  COVID-19 is a human tragedy more than a high impact event. The fabric of society should improve during and post COVID-19 crisis. Our civic sense should prevail, and improve. We all should ask questions like: Who we are? And What are the things we care about? Next, C for Confidence: Professor Anand, HBS faculty reinforces that COVID-19 is leading to Confidence Crisis. This includes self-confidence, and confidence people have on others (including their leaders, their employers and their governments).

Stanford economist Paul Romer well quoted that “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.”

Melanie Butler from PWC aptly said that the response window for a crisis is typically measured in months, while recovery is measured in years. But a crisis doesn’t necessarily mean disaster. So, we will emerge through this crisis, but we need a Plan C, which is not a third plan, but a series of plans. Let’s call it a marathon of plans, or planned actions.

Godspeed, Mansoor (12 April 2020, Kuala Lumpur)

References: 

Coombs, W.T., Holladay, S.J. (2012) The Handbook of Crisis Communication, Oxford, Wiley-Blackwell

Inc Magazine (2020) 10 Steps to Effective Coronavirus Crisis Leadership

McKinsey (2020) Leadership in a crisis

PwC (2020) COVID-19: Four essential crisis management lessons

The Wall Street Journal (2020) Crisis Leadership: Five Principles for Managing the Unexpected

White, C.M. (2019) Social Media, Crisis Communication, and Emergency Management: Leveraging Web 2.0 Technologies, Boca Raton, Taylor & Francis