BYD's NFPP Na Ion Battery Could Be 30% Cheaper Than LFP In 2026

There are 5 significant requirements for Light Electric Vehicle applications:

1. Low cost

2. High Safety

3. Wide Temperature Range

4. Long Cycle Life

5. High Rate

At the begining, LEV market is occupied with Lead Acid Batteries which has low cost and high safety. (1+2 advs)

Due to pollution issue for the heavy metal Pb, Cd materials from LAB, China government published new standard GB17761-2018 to limit the max E-scooter weight to 55kg, which leaves no room for LAB in this market due to its low energy density. (Launched on 15th April 2019, activated on 15th April 2024, with 5 years transition period)

Currently the LEV market is full of Nickel Manganese Cobalt Lithium Ion Batteries, due to the high energy density, light weighted, long mileage, mature chemistry.

With over 21 thousands known E-scooter NMC LIB fire or explosion accidents happening in China 2023 especially summer time, and 80% of them are due to lithium battery thermal runaway when charging, government launched GB 43854—2024 on 25th April and will activate it on 1st November 2024, which requires LEV battery to pass NAIL PENETRATION test without fire or explosion before launching in vehicles.

LiFePO4 chemistry LFP LIB will replace a lot of NMC LIB Chinese LEV market due to the new policy, as they are much safer and with good cycle life, but low temperature and high rate performance is not good. (2+4 advs)

One of a very potential chemistry Li4Ti5O12 LTO LIB has almost all the LEV needed advantages like high safety, wire temperature range, long cycle life, high rate, but the expensive cost of raw materials, low energy density and low platform voltage stopped its mass using in LEV market. (2+3+4+5 advs)

The last option comes to the Sodium Ion Batteries, with its abundant raw materials, no pollution on mining, low carbon footprint.

SIB is generally safer than LIB but not as safe as LAB, 2+3+4+5 advs are all there for SIB, only the price is waiting to be improved through the industralization.

There are typically 3 technical routes for SIB, Layered Oxide which is like NMC, similar combination of 3 transition metals with high nickel to support its high energy density. LO shares similar production line with NMC LIB, hereby most of Chinese SIB cell manufacturers are paving on this road, with HiNa Battery Technology Co., Ltd. leading the way.

But to continuously making good LO SIB is a difficult work, as gas generation has been a common issue for it during charging discharging, which makes the internal chemistry unstable, and leading to potentially low cycle life or flying like a rocket when mass releasing the internal gas.

The wide voltage range for LO in 4V-1.5V is another challenge for accessories and applications to match with it, some people use smart BMS and DCDC to manage the voltage mismatch, but I think it's not an ultimate solution for the commercialization.

Prussian Blue/White series SIB is a traditional route, in which researchers are seeking the solution to remove the crystal water and minimize the toxic precursor risk to human beings. Natron Energy in USA is leading this way with its aqueous PB, which has ultra long cycle life, high power and nonflammable chemistry, but the 20-30WH/KG low energy density has decided its narrow usable market and low possibility of commercialization.

To talk about Polyanion Compounds SIB, hard to not mentioning its pioneer Tiamat Energy in France, who produced its first PC SIB fast charging, long cycle life and superior safety 18650 power cell in 2016, later widely used in power tool application which requires continuous high power output in 2023 with MWh level C Sample Status. Meanwhile moved to Gen 2 LO energy cell to widen its market opportunities since higher energy density.

The fact is, current NFPP polyanion SIB cost is about 67% higher than LFP (based on 100,000RMB/ton Lithium Carbonate price level), while energy density 40% less than its same size FC46120P 3.2V 24Ah 173Wh/kg, which estimated will be improved to same BOM cost level and ED 34% less in 2025, 30% cheaper while ED 25% less in 2026.

Product strategy key technologies: Aluminum shell material + laser sealing + tabless design.

Product advantages with high PPM in cylindrical cell for large capability, high consistency, more automatically produced. Less swelling and potentially lower cost.

BYD NFPP 46120 SIB cell passed varies safety tests like short circuit, over charge, over discharge, impact, fall, NAIL PENETRATION. with 60 degree Celsius storage 7 days, better capacity retention and recovery than LFP, 7days float charging better capacity retention and recovery than LFP.

At 1.5V-3.6V 100% DOD 0.5C/1C, BYD NFPP 46120 SIB estimate will have over 8,000 cycles life to 80% SOH at room temperature, while 4,000 cycles at 45 degree.

At room temperature, 10C discharge capacity retention is over 95%, -20 degree 4C discharge temperature raise within 20 degrees, capacity retention is even better than smaller rate, and 0.2C -40 degree capacity retention is over 70%.

Based on current high price, renting mode could be a good way to break down the cost from its Product Lifecycle Management, just like renting the LTO 20,000-30,000 cycles life into 20-30 years daily cost. BYD's NFPP 46120 SIB is running pilot project on E-scooter swappable stations for food delivery market.

In all, NFPP is a highly potential SIB chemistry, which will also be widely used in BESS later with its potentially 10,000 cycles life and cheaper cost than LFP. Let's get prepared for it.

-Jerry Wan