The Butterfly Effect

No one ever comprehended that President of Tunisia Ben Ali would have to go home when Mohomed Bouazizi self-immolated. What has that got to do with the President of a country?

Do you see any similarities? A protestor is attacked, and next, we know, people are on the streets. Let's not dwell on politics here. But this is a clear manifestation of what we call a VUCA world. A world that is Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. An event may not have direct relevance, connectivity, or rationale but could create a chain of action in quick time and previously unfathomed.

The butterfly effect was popularized by Professor Edward Lorenz, a modeling professor. He found that a minor change to a particular parameter can create a massive outcome elsewhere. At the point of introducing this, he posed a question; '"Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?" This provocative question illustrated the idea that some complex dynamic systems could bring in unpredictable behaviours due to minor changes.

·?????Did you know that an east German bureaucrat's mistake on live TV led to the fall of the Berlin Wall? A butterfly effect indeed.

The Tunisian saga, in many ways, was a butterfly effect. A minor incident where Mohomed was not allowed to do business resulted in himself immolating. This resulted in agitation first in his small village, town, and then countrywide, eventually President having to flee. The information exchange and its speed manifest this VUCA world at an incredible pace, resulting in changes practically every minute that no one can predict. That is the uncertainty with which we live today. We also, at times, do not know what's right and what's wrong. For example, is cholesterol good or bad?

Yesterday, what happened in Sri Lanka reminded us how the VUCA world manifests and moves to create a butterfly effect. The morning was peaceful, and the country was at a standstill by night. It was,

·?????Volatile due to unexpected challenges. Yesterday was peaceful, and today we have countrywide problems.

·?????Uncertain as It's almost impossible to predict. What would it be like tomorrow? Can we predict? Media like Twitter has changed the information landscape.

·?????Complex as Simple cause and effect actions are replaced by a complex set of interconnected events. A meeting in Colombo, and within hours protests are in Trinco.

·?????Ambiguous as unclear and contradictory relationships occur. What military theorist Carl Von Clausewitz called 'the Fog of War.' Multiple plausible interpretations exist of a situation, and you are unclear which is what. So, we do not know which is correct.

No one knows what is right and wrong anymore, which creates chaos. The butterfly effect is also known as the chaos theory. VUCA effects take over and cloud the decision process.

This same thing happens in commercial organisations. Be it neglected employee-centered issues, union demands, or customer/business partner issues. Today an unhappy customer could create a butterfly effect through social media. Similarly, an employee or a team such as a union. If you are not vigilant, the tornado will hit before you can think, bringing the entire process down or to a standstill. A neglected union action could bring your entity to a grinding halt. Besides, these could be interrelated politically, especially if the union is affiliated, thus bringing more complexities. Today's entities consist of many interrelated aspects, both internal and external, with rapid information exchange. Its chain reaction and one minor incident could trigger a significant problem elsewhere. A suspension of an employee could end up with an organisation-wide strike.

The idea of this narrative was to bring focus to the VUCA world, especially during troubled times, and draw parallels to the commercial sector. Executives need to be vigilant as a simple matter could engulf social media turning your business into negative gear. The same could happen with your career too. Hence, there is an inherent risk with today's rapid information transition ability as much as it is a tool to propagate positive action. But remember. Most situations can be turned to your advantage in the business world if you handle them early and well.

Tip to young executives- social media and the VUCA world are hand in glove. Be attentive and monitor changes frequently. Don't procrastinate, and always respond and don't react. VUCA can be managed by carefully probing the content and context and responding.