The Butterfly Effect

In December 1972, Edward N. Lorenz, a Professor of Meteorology at MIT presented a talk at the American Association for the Advancement of Science held in Washington, D.C. entitled “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set a Tornado in Texas?”

Months before that talk, on a cold wintry day, Lorenz entered some numbers into a computer program simulating weather patterns and then left his office to get a cup of coffee while the program ran. When he returned, he noticed a result that eventually would change the course of Science. On this day, Lorenz was repeating a simulation he had run earlier - but he had rounded off one variable from .506127 to .506. To his surprise, that tiny alteration drastically transformed the whole pattern his program produced, over two months of simulated weather. 

The unexpected result led Lorenz to a powerful insight about the way nature works: small changes can have large consequences. This came to be known as the Butterfly Effect - a concept that highlights the possibility that small causes may have momentous effects. The butterfly seemed to provide the ideal illustration of smallness. Many researchers recognized years later that Lorenz’s work challenged the classical understanding of nature. His work also led to significant improvements in weather forecasting. 

Seemingly disconnected and distant events that nevertheless connect and intersect to form a cause-and-effect relationship. The “butterfly effect” eventually became a metaphor used in very diverse contexts, many of them outside the strict realm of Science. 

Turning to the familiar arena of IT and Digital transformational programs and projects. They too can have their share of this metaphor. Over the years, a mixed bag of successful and less successful projects has taught many of us a pretty obvious lesson:  A “butterfly wing flap” sized miss of critical factor(s) at the start of a project is very likely to result in undesirable effects downstream – misaligned solution, missed schedules, mismatched expectations and what not. 

Shaping, sizing and starting a project or program well is half the battle won.  

Investing adequate time with a purpose in preparation of the “game plan” or “execution strategy” would significantly help streamline the rigor of a project’s execution. Otherwise, the cost of misses and mistakes can get attributed to the “butterfly effect”.  Practicality tells us to expect the butterfly to keep “flapping its wings” during the course of a project. Prudence tells us to have a clear and timely response mechanism to address such occurrences.

The “core team” of a project is expected to collaborate and do all that it takes to keep the project's “weather parameters” within acceptable thresholds, to avert a “butterfly effect”. And thereby, no butterflies in the stomach too.