The Butcher, The Baker, The Candlestick Maker; Will Artificial Intelligence take over our jobs?

A science-fiction enthusiast might be familiar with the quote, "This mission is too important for me to allow you to jeopardize it.", A quote from Arthur C. Clerks' famous creation "2001" A Space Odyssey." A fictional Artificial General Intelligence Computer, HAL9000 (Heuristically Programmed Algorithmic Machine), disobeys human command and turns rogue in outer space.

During the past decades, many science fiction entertainment and literature were created with popular plots where AI-driven robotic overlords ruthlessly take over humanity and subsequently humanity's fight-back to regain control from the machines.?However, such incidents are limited to sci-fiction. However, with the omniscient, omnipresent, and almost omnipotent nature fueled by quantum science, the increasing power of AI has arisen questions time and time again. At present, we witness the rapid development of Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) through Machine Learning and Deep Learning Neural Networks. With the rapid growth, we are on a course to gradually achieve the status of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) in the future.?

The future possibilities and predictions of AI technology can be compared to Pandora's Box's myth. However, we are aware of what Pandora's Box contained. With the rapid growth in the field and untapped spectrums, the future of AI, on the other hand, remains relatively unclear, which justifies the question that we are faced with again and again, and that is, Will Artificial Intelligence replace humans? However, humanity does not have to fear getting conquered by machines in the foreseeable future; yet, it has come to crossroads where there are concerns and predictions that Artificial Intelligence will replace many jobs in the coming years. In context, an invasion and take over of tasks performed by humans.

As illustrated by the Critical Automation Job Loss Statistics, around 37% of the global workforce has concerns about losing their jobs to machines. It has been projected that approximately 20 million manufacturing jobs displaced due to the rise of robots and automation. A recent report from Oxford Economics estimates that 8.5% of the global manufacturing will be replaced by robots, with over 14 million manufacturing jobs in China alone. As per the statistics provided by US News Publication last year, there are 2.25 million robots in the global workforce and have multiplied threefold over the past 20 years, doubling since 2010. According to the report, every third robot is installed in China. The country accounts for about 20% of robots worldwide. Additionally, since 2004 each new robot installed in the manufacturing sector has displaced an average of 1.6 workers.

We have discussed the foreseeable threat arising from automation, and let us look at the concern optimistically. Carefully analyzing the figures, it may be witnessed that most of the threat attribution pertains to the monotonous jobs in the manufacturing segment. However, the term "routine" can be applied to make more sense in the service industry. To have a clear idea, we need to move back in time to analyze historical facts to justify our optimism. With substantial knowledge of the history of innovation, the world has seen three industrial revolutions, and at present, we are on the brink of the fourth. The Industrial Revolution was when machines first became essential to the economy. Starting around 1760 in England and running till about 1850, many innovations and new technologies dramatically reshaped (or 'revolutionized') the economy.

?Revolution of the Machines

The First Industrial Revolution used water and steam power to mechanize production. It revolutionized many industries after introducing steam power, including manufacturing and transport. As a result, there were mass movements from the rural farming community to the cities where the industries thrived.

The Second Industrial Revolution used electric power to create mass production. The Third used electronics and information technology to automate creation. Concepts such as Scientific Management to scientifically determined jobs and management practices to improve efficiency and labour productivity. As illustrated in the book of Richard L Daft, "A New Era of Management."?In late 1800 a young engineer Fredrick Winslow Taylor proposed re-establishment like machines. Subsequently, advancing towards recalibration of physical and mental gears for better productivity. Taylor insisted that improving productivity meant management itself would have to change could be determined by scientific study. The concept paved the way for the term Scientific Management. He suggested that decisions based on rules of thumb and tradition be replaced with the precise procedure after carefully reviewing an individual situation. This concept still exists where the main objective is improving economic efficiency, especially labour productivity. This method created the monotonous and routine concept of humans working as machines focusing only on a program or a specific task to speed up the production pushing creativity to the lower end of the matrix.?

The Fourth Industrial Revolution started with the development of digital technology, gradually taking the leading role through the past couple of decades, building on the third. The IT revolution created techniques where the routine tasks performed by humans can be carried out by machines and beyond, moving into self-learning. This change is distinguished by a fusion of technologies blurring the lines between the physical, digital and biological spheres where AI is slowly moving into self-learning machines carried out through concepts of Machine Learning and Neural Networks. As industries embrace the technologies, automated devices absorb the routine and programmed tasks. The change in the working theory is where the statistic mentioned above come into play. Naturally, don't we need to become more intelligent than the machines carrying out routine tasks? The change has to tip the scale of the creativity matrix towards the higher side. It is a paradigm change of concept rather than elimination.

Considering the above vital factors of the historical background of technology development, the attributed revolutions, and changes, conceptually, there should be a positive correlation between technology and unemployment if the argument of human redundancy on emerging technology is valid. The linear equation will consider the factor of the growing world population as well.?As illustrated by Ian Berkin, A digital Transformation Industry Veteran,?the US unemployment rate was the lowest in 2019 in 50 years. Organizations are finding difficulties recruiting the right talent for their development to face the fourth industrial revolution. Statistics show that are no indicators of wide-scale layoffs due to automation. World Economic Forum predicts that 58 million jobs will be in the pipeline due to automation within the next five years.?Deloitte states, " While technology has potentially contributed to the loss of over 800,000 low skilled jobs, there is equally strong evidence to suggest that it has helped to create nearly 3.5 million high specialized ones in their place".Finally, Gartner estimates that AI would create more jobs than it eliminates.?

?Are we only looking at one side of the coin?

The hype headlines of "robots are coming for our jobs, and our jobs are doomed"; these headlines are proven baseless, which creates a boring playdown. The job story is particularly emotional, and yes, we should have a particular worry about wide-scale layoffs and disruption to our livelihood. Nevertheless, this is not what we are witnessing. We are seeing the hours given back to the organization due to automation. It frees the existing staff to carry out more creativity and valuable work.?With a more positive outlook and the inevitable change is coming, there should be a non-myopic view into the future. As Deloitte suggested, certain job types will no longer need humans to perform, and organizations should be prepared and strategized to accommodate the change.

Organizations should leverage the hours given back to the system using it prudently to enhance creativity and create more valuable tasks that will use human creativity. Organizations need to recruit people with logical and technical skills combined with empathy, creativity, and communication. Authors such as Raymond S. Nickerson and Thomas H.Davenport used purple people to describe employees of this nature. Purple people will have more technical and business skills to bridge the two worlds and ensure that technology is applied correctly. With new positions such as AI algorithm trainers, digital process designers, data scientists, automation engineers, digital labour stewards, robotic operating centre specialists, organizations will have countless opportunities to upskill and retrain the existing human resources.???Instead of laying off supplies, organizations should create an augmented environment of combining humans and machines. Instead of focusing and allowing the "Rise of the Machines," we need to "Rise with the Machines."

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