Business Markets & Pandemics.

Past, Present & The Future .

Global equity markets have rebounded from viral outbreaks in the past, if we look back, global equity markets experienced a Bear Market (i.e. contraction of 15% and more) for almost 10 times in the period from 1969 - 2019, followed by Bull Market. good news is that while bear markets have varied widely in severity and length, stocks have come back from each downturn and often have made sizable gains in the following months.

Bear Markets had an average fall of -31% for a period of 1 Year, having said that, Bull Markets had an average growth of 167% for a period of 3 years & 11 months.

The past is no guarantee of future results, but historically even the worst markets have been temporary dips in a general march upward for stocks.

So this all sums up to, whats most important is "The Present".

Top Priorities today are to stay physically healthy & get our businesses back on track.

Leading Business Through the Coronavirus Crisis 

The Covid-19 crisis has now reached a new critical phase where public health systems need to act decisively to contain the growth in new epicenters outside China.

Clearly, the main emphasis is and should be on containing and mitigating the disease itself. But the economic impacts are also significant, and many companies are feeling their way towards understanding, reacting to, and learning lessons from rapidly unfolding events. Unanticipated twists and turns will be revealed with each news cycle, and we will only have a complete picture in retrospect.

Nevertheless, given the very different degrees of preparedness across all the companies, the further potential for disruption, and the value of being better prepared for future crises, it’s worth trying to extract from what we have or are learning each day of this pandemic.

1) Update intelligence daily.

Events are unfolding with astounding speed, and the picture changes on a daily basis. Only several days ago, it looked like the outbreak was mostly confined to China and was being brought under control. More recently, a number of fast-growing epicenters of infection have sprung up beyond China, signaling a new phase and potentially necessitating new strategies of mitigation rather than containment.

2) Beware of hype cycles / news cycles.

News organizations often focus on what’s new rather than the big picture, and they sometimes don’t distinguish between hard facts, soft facts, and speculation. Yesterday’s news is likely to frame how our organization thinks about the crisis today. When exposed to fast changing information, be it a new technology or an emerging crisis, we have a systematic tendency initially to overlook weak signals, then to overreact to emerging issues before we eventually take a more calibrated view. As we absorb the latest news, we think critically about the source of the information before acting on it.

3) Don’t assume that information creates informedness.

In our connected world, employees have direct access to many sources of information. Leaders might reasonably conclude that there is so much information and commentary available externally that they don’t need to do anything additional. We have found, however, that creating and widely sharing a regularly updated summary of facts and implications is invaluable, so that time is not wasted debating what the facts are — or worse, making different assumptions about facts.

4) Use experts and forecasts carefully.

Experts in public health, logistics, insurance, banking and other disciplines are indispensable in interpreting complex and shifting information. But it’s clear that expert opinions differ on critical issues like optimal containment policies and economic impact, and it’s good to consult multiple sources. Each epidemic is unpredictable and unique, and we are still learning about the critical features of the current one. We need to employ an iterative, empirical approach to understanding what’s going on and what works — albeit one guided by expert opinion.

5) Constantly re-frame our understanding of what’s happening.

A big-picture synthesis of the situation and a plan to deal with it, once captured on paper, can itself become a source of inertia. A Chinese proverb reminds us that great generals should issue commands in the morning and change them in the evening.

But large organizations are rarely so flexible. Managers often resist disseminating plans until they are completely sure, and then they are reluctant to change them for fear of looking indecisive or misinformed, or of creating confusion in the organization. A living document, with a time-stamped “best current view” is essential to learn and adapt in a rapidly changing situation.

6) Beware of bureaucracy.

Controversial, sensitive, or high-profile issues will typically attract review by senior management, corporate affairs, legal, risk management, and a host of other functions. Each will have suggestions on how to best craft communications, leading to an overly generalized or conservative perspective and a slow, cumbersome process.

Assembling a small trusted team and giving them enough leeway to make rapid tactical decisions is critical. Overly managing communications can be damaging when each day brings significant new information to light. Use the clock speed of external events as a guideline for pacing the internal process, rather than starting with the latter as a given.

7) Ensure that our response is balanced across these seven dimensions:

? Communications: Employees will likely be exposed to conflicting information and feel anxious or confused about the best course of action. Be sure to communicate policies promptly, clearly, and in a balanced manner. Furthermore, communicate contextual information and the reasoning behind policies so that employees can deepen their own understanding and also take initiative in unanticipated situations, such as employee holidays in a restricted location or at an unexpected time.

? Employee needs: Restrictions on travel and congregation will trigger employee needs for access to education, health care, daily provisions and the like. We should anticipate and develop solutions to these and create an information hub where employees can find all the information they need. Many of these needs will be locally specific, requiring a multi-tiered approach to policy making.

? Travel: Make sure that travel policies are clear in terms of where employees can travel to, for what reasons, what authorizations are required and when the policy will be reviewed.

? Remote work: Be clear on our policies — where they apply, how they will work, and when they will be reviewed. Home working is rare in some geographies, like China for example, and the need for additional explanation should be anticipated.

? Supply-chain stabilization: Attempt to stabilize supply chains by using safety stocks, alternative sources, and working with suppliers to solve bottlenecks. Where rapid solutions are not possible, co-develop plans, put in place interim solutions, and communicate plans to all relevant stakeholders.

? Business tracking and forecasting: It’s likely that the crisis will create unpredictable fluctuations. Put in place rapid-reporting cycles so that we can understand how our business is being affected, where mitigation is required, and how quickly operations are recovering. A crisis doesn’t imply immunity from performance management, and sooner or later markets will judge which companies managed the challenge most effectively.

? Being part of the broader solution: As a corporate citizen we should support others in our supply chain, industry, community, and local government. Consider how our business can contribute, be it in health care, insurance, banking, food, or some other domain. Focus on the intersection between acute social needs and our specific capabilities — in other words, living our purpose.

8) Prepare now for the next crisis.

Covid-19 is not a one-off challenge. We should expect additional phases to the current epidemic and additional epidemics in the future. Harvard Business Schools research on the effectiveness of organizational responses to dynamic crises indicates that there is one variable which is most predictive of eventual success – preparation and preemption. Preparing for the next crisis (or the next phase of the current crisis) now is likely to be much more effective than an ad hoc, reactive response when the crisis actually hits.

9) Intellectual preparation is not enough.

Many companies run scenarios to create intellectual preparedness for unexpected situations. Scenarios must be updated and customized, however, in the light of the most material risks to a business at any given time. Those risks have shifted even over the last few days, with the rise of new disease epicenters.

Intellectual preparedness alone is not enough, however. Something can be well understood but unrehearsed as a capability. Scenarios should therefore ideally be backed up by war gaming to simulate and learn from behaviors under stress. A war room set-up, with a small dedicated team empowered to decide and execute, can cut through organizational complexity.

10) Reflect on what we’ve learned.

Rather than heaving a sigh of relief and returning to normal routines when the crisis subsides, efforts should be made not to squander a valuable learning opportunity. Even while the crisis is unfolding, responses and impacts should be documented to be later reviewed and lessons distilled. Rapidly evolving situations expose existing organizational weaknesses, like an inability to make hard decisions or an excessive bias towards consensus, which constitute opportunities for improvement.

For example, airline safety is one of the most effective global learning systems we have in this respect. Each time there is an incident from minor mishaps to tragic accidents resulting in lives lost, root causes are investigated in forensic detail according to pre-agreed protocols, and binding recommendations are made. It’s not surprising that flying has become one of safest forms of travel, thanks to cumulative learnings and adaptations from previous misfortunes.

11) Prepare for a changed world.

We should expect that the Covid-19 crisis will change our businesses and society in important ways. It is likely to fuel areas like online shopping, online education, and public health investments.

Last but not the least, Stay-Safe, Stay-Healthy . To reiterate again "Our top Priorities today are to stay physically healthy & get our businesses back on track".

We are all in this together! This too shall pass!