BurnRisk: Homes Doubled, Danger Escalates

Recent years have witnessed a staggering surge in the destruction caused by wildfires across the Western United States, challenging the perception that these events are isolated incidents. A 246% increase in the number of homes and structures destroyed by wildfires in the contiguous Western U.S. between the decades of 1999-2009 and 2010-2020.

This surge is not merely an outcome of increased burned areas or the construction of homes in historically fire-prone regions. Rather, it signifies a growing vulnerability to wildfire disasters that outpaces both of these factors. Major fires in 2017, 2018, and 2020, including destructive incidents in California, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington, contribute significantly to this upward trajectory.

From 1999 to 2009, an average of 1.3 structures per 4 square miles burned, but this number more than doubled to 3.4 structures during the subsequent decade. The disturbing rise in home and structure loss demands a closer look at the evolving dynamics of wildfires in the Western U.S.

One key revelation is that 88% of wildfires in the West over the past two decades destroyed zero structures. However, the remaining 12% that did result in structure loss demonstrated a notable human influence. Unplanned human-related ignitions, including backyard burning, downed power lines, and campfires, were responsible for 76% of wildfires with structure loss.

The area burned from human-related ignitions increased by 51% between 1999-2009 and 2010-2020.

This human involvement in igniting wildfires is crucial because it leads to more destructive outcomes. Areas near buildings are more prone to human-caused wildfires, which burn in grasses that dry out easily and spread rapidly. Moreover, the number of structures in areas surrounded by flammable vegetation has increased by 40% over the past two decades across the West, contributing to the heightened risk.

The consequences of human-caused climate change, such as vegetation becoming more flammable later in the year, amplify the impact of accidental ignitions. The December 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado serves as a poignant example, with powerful winds driving the fire through neighborhoods and dry vegetation, despite it being late December.

While the instinct to extinguish all fires may arise, this approach could exacerbate the problem. Fire suppression, lack of Indigenous fire stewardship, and a general fear of fire have contributed to an increase in flammable vegetation.

The silver lining is that individuals can actively contribute to change. Minimizing unplanned human-related ignitions becomes paramount, necessitating more than individual actions. Addressing infrastructure issues, such as downed power lines, is crucial to preventing some of the deadliest wildfires.

Reducing the risk of destructive wildfires requires transformative changes in how we build, provide power, and manage lands.

It calls for innovative approaches and perspectives that consider socioeconomic levels. Each state's unique circumstances demand tailored strategies, from accommodating widespread burning in less developed regions to careful planning in growing communities.

While climate change remains a looming challenge, immediate action is imperative. Combining efforts to address climate change with proactive measures to reduce risks offers a comprehensive approach to living more safely in an increasingly flammable West. Such dual perspective presented underscores the urgency for collective action to mitigate the escalating threat of wildfires in the Western United States.

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Sources:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/wildfires-threaten-more-homes-and-people-in-the-u-s-than-ever-before/

https://theconversation.com/western-wildfires-destroyed-246-more-homes-and-buildings-over-the-past-decade-fire-scientists-explain-whats-changing-197384