Bulletproof Victory: Trump's Brush with Death and the Road Ahead

"Trump just won the election." These words, initially confusing when received via WhatsApp, took on a chilling new meaning as news broke of a shocking incident at a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. In a span of mere minutes, the political landscape of the United States was dramatically altered.

The Incident

The scene unfolded with startling rapidity: Donald Trump, wearing his signature red MAGA hat, was delivering a speech at a rally when gunshots suddenly rang out. The former president was struck, with bullets hitting his chest and grazing his ears. The ensuing chaos was captured in real-time, showing Trump ducking behind the podium before re-emerging, bloodied yet defiant, raising his fist as the crowd erupted in cheers.

Tragically, at least one rally attendee was killed, and the suspected shooter, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks from Pennsylvania, also died. Another attendee is in serious condition. Trump, described as "fine" by his spokesman, was transported to a local medical facility for evaluation. The image of Trump being carried away by Secret Service agents, his fist still raised and his face spattered with blood, quickly became iconic. It spread worldwide, eliciting intense reactions across the political spectrum. This attack is the most serious on an American president or ex-president since John Hinckley shot and wounded Ronald Reagan in March 1981.

Immediate Reactions

The aftermath was immediate and far-reaching. President Joe Biden and leaders from both parties condemned the attack and denounced political violence. Commentators began speculating about a landslide victory for Trump in November, with some even referring to him as the "uncrowned king." The incident has reignited debates about political violence in America, with some, like Jason Meister of the Trump 2020 Advisory Board, quick to blame "the media and the Democrats." Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of Twitter, chose this moment to "fully endorse" Trump for president, further fueling the political firestorm.

Historical Context and Security

Running for high office in America has always been perilous. Four sitting presidents have been assassinated, and the Secret Service has thwarted countless other attempts. Established by Abraham Lincoln shortly before his assassination in 1865, the Secret Service has significantly enhanced presidential security, even as the availability of high-powered rifles and telescopic sights has made protection more challenging.

The Secret Service is highly professional and has further improved since its most catastrophic failure to prevent the assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963. With over 8,000 agents, the agency provides robust security, but it only takes one lapse for a tragedy to occur. The rampant speculation on social media about conspiracies is unfounded and dangerous, potentially inciting further political violence. Politicians should refrain from fueling such baseless theories.

The Path Forward

While mourning the bystander who perished and others who were injured, Americans can breathe a sigh of relief that the assassin failed in his objective. It would be appalling for an already fraught election to be decided by a bullet, allowing one unbalanced individual to override the democratic preferences of millions of voters. The attempt on Trump’s life adds to the parallels with 1968, another year of political turmoil, when Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated during his run for the Democratic nomination. This year, Robert’s son, who shares his initials, is running as a third-party candidate. The Democrats will soon convene in Chicago for their convention, with the sitting Democratic president under pressure to step aside. Street violence and protests marred the 1968 Democratic convention and likely contributed to the election of law-and-order Republican Richard Nixon. This time, police should be firm but fair, and protesters should show restraint.

Political Implications

This sudden shift underscores the unpredictable nature of American politics. In mere minutes, the Republican Party gained more approval than during their entire campaign, while the Democrats were caught off guard. However, predictions about the election outcome remain speculative and uncertain. The reactions of senior Republicans and Democrats are crucial at this juncture. When Reagan was shot in 1981, he lightened the situation by joking that he hoped the surgeon was a Republican. Trump would be wise to adopt a similar approach. His initial response was commendably calm, even though some of his allies blamed political opponents for the attack. Trump should make it clear that no one should seek vengeance on his behalf.

Market Reactions and Economic Implications

As world financial markets reopened following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, one outcome seemed certain: the Trump trade would gain momentum. Investments betting on the Republican’s return to the White House—anticipating tax cuts, higher tariffs, and looser regulations—had already been rising since President Joe Biden's poor debate performance last month cast doubt on his re-election prospects. Trump's defiant resilience after being shot in the ear at a Pennsylvania rally galvanized supporters and drew widespread sympathy, boosting the dollar and Bitcoin.

“This news reinforces Trump as the frontrunner,” said Mark McCormick, global head of foreign-exchange and emerging-market strategy at Toronto Dominion Bank. “We remain bullish on the US dollar for the second half of 2024 and into early 2025.” However, the threat of political violence in the US may drive investors toward haven assets, complicating the Trump trade in the bond market. Treasuries typically rally when investors seek safety, which could distort the expected steepening of the yield curve due to Trump’s fiscal and trade policies.

“Political risk is binary and difficult to hedge, and uncertainty was already high due to the close nature of the race,” said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Investment Management. She believes this increases the likelihood of a Republican sweep, adding pressure on the yield curve. Equity investors are bracing for a near-term surge in volatility when S&P 500 futures begin trading, with expectations of price swings given the boom in artificial-intelligence stocks and risks from elevated interest rates and political uncertainty.

Investors have also been eyeing gains in bank, healthcare, and oil-industry stocks under a Trump victory. “The unprecedented nature of the attack will boost volatility,” said David Mazza, CEO at Roundhill Investments, predicting investors might seek temporary safety in defensive stocks like mega-cap companies. He noted that it also supports stocks performing well in a steepening yield curve, especially financials.

“If the market perceives that Trump’s chances of winning have improved since Friday, we would expect a sell-off at the back end of the bond market, similar to the reaction seen immediately after the debate,” wrote Michael Purves, CEO and founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, in an email.

Bond traders have been expecting at least two interest-rate cuts in 2024, but according to Michael Purves, CEO and founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors, a significant rise in Trump's election odds might cause the Federal Reserve to keep its current policy unchanged for a more extended period. Purves stated, "Trump’s policies are more inflationary compared to Biden’s, so we believe the Fed will seek to preserve as much flexibility as possible."

Conclusion

The? attempt on Trump's life could, in the best-case scenario, offer a chance to reset the tone of this election. Regardless of the nation's deep divisions, it is crucial that even Trump's harshest critics acknowledge that political violence has no place in a democracy. As the immediate shock of this unprecedented event begins to fade, significant questions about the future of American politics emerge. Will this incident propel Trump back to the White House, or will it lead to a national reflection on the state of political discourse and the threat of violence?

It is evident that American democracy is facing substantial challenges. The normalisation of political violence, deepening polarization, and the unpredictable nature of modern campaigning all contribute to an environment of uncertainty and tension. As we approach what could be the most pivotal election in recent history, it is vital for Americans to consider the state of their democracy and the future they wish to create. The upcoming months will undoubtedly test the nation's resilience and dedication to democratic principles. In these turbulent times, one thing is certain: the future of American politics is anything but clear.