A Bullet Named Kamala

Analyzing the U.S. election by gazing at our own navels and viewing it through our own self-perceptions and worldviews, rather than understanding the intricacies of American politics, media, and socio-political culture, is to make decisions from a blind spot #Blindspot. The reality is that to understand how it affects us, we need to start from their internal battles and the strategic role they are playing in the global political economy, not from our good wishes or beliefs. For example, using the #SuperPeso as a barometer for Mexico's effects from Biden's decline and the high possibility of Kamala Harris running against Donald Trump is a partial and limited perspective. The first step to stop gazing at our navels is to understand that reality in the U.S. is also built on the television channel you watch news on, the newspaper you read, and your social media feed. No, it's not the same as in Mexico; the differences between CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC, to name a few networks, are absolute. Changing the channel from one to another is seeing the same event from entirely different perspectives to the point where you might think they are talking about different events. The land of the free is increasingly narrowing its citizens' views on crucial issues. Let's accept once and for all that the United States has ceased, by decision and circumstance, to be the balance in global matters. Not only is its economy increasingly protectionist, but its starting points on any public arena issue, local or global, are also becoming less liberal. In the few days between Biden's decline and the support for Kamala, the agenda has focused on her role as a prosecutor and Trump's alleged criminality. This is just the beginning because the crisis of institutions is a common denominator in geopolitics. In the United States, the latest average trust in major institutions is 28% (2024), marking the third consecutive year that trust has been below 30%. Before 2022, the average trust was between 31% and 43% (Gallup). The bullet Trump dodged also bleeds this trust and contributes to institutional erosion. The Secret Service director acknowledged that the assassination attempt on July 13th is the worst operational failure in decades and took full responsibility, emphasizing that nothing she says seeks to shift responsibility to any other police agency. This is the size of the hole the bullet leaves. There is another factor, the mood of the citizens of that country. A good thermometer is their perceptions of migration due to its multiple impacts on their community and economic life. According to Gallup, between May 2020 and June 2024, the percentage of people who believe it should decrease rose from 28% to 55%. The highest recorded level is 65% between 1993 and 1995, during the Mexican economic crisis that expelled many compatriots to the neighboring country. Many things are changing in the United States and consequently in the world. The election is not just Trump versus Harris; it's also about what we were promised it would be, what it is, and what we are becoming. The relationship decisions between the two countries by the cabinet led by Claudia Sheinbaum require, more than ever, an integral and not ideological vision. Otherwise, we will only contribute to building micro cold wars. China's investment in Mexico is just the tip of the iceberg.

@osandovalsaenz

Published in El Universal on July 24, 2024.