Building a Future Rural Self

A recent Wall Street Journal article reveals that “brain patterns that emerge on an MRI when people think about their future selves most resemble the brain patterns that arise when they think about strangers. This finding, replicated by other research groups, suggests that, in the mind’s eye, our future selves look like other people.” But the article explains that how we think about our future selves “could make the difference between decisions you ultimately find satisfying and ones you might eventually regret.”

Some moments in time are clear turning points – or at least points at which critical turns might be taken. Other moments seem to last longer, though in the long-range span of history, a “moment” may stretch for a while.

Rural spaces are in such a moment. Post-Great Recession economic growth in rural America has reached 14.8%, while urban areas enjoyed growth rates of 19.2%. Employment overall has rebounded more slowly than other periods of domestic economic downturn, but that should not be surprising given the extensive impact of the Great Recession. The USDA reports 40% of rural employment deficits can be traced back to lower population growth rates in rural as opposed to urban areas, as well as older, less educated workforces. Importantly, however, rural recovery differed from community to community, and these data can inform strategic decisions for rural spaces.

On average, Great Plains states that combined agriculture with a diverse mix of other sectors fared better than regions that relied on more limited sources of economic contribution. Areas with an array of professional services jobs fare rebounded more rapidly than areas that relied heavily on manufacturing. Notably, a recent survey reported that nearly 60% of rural Americans are interested in tech jobs/careers. These findings align well with other data indicating that rural spaces are home to approximately half the number of tech jobs that one would expect to find based on national employment patterns. Stated differently, there is untapped demand in rural spaces, and “work from anywhere” models can help connect interested workers with desired jobs. These include software developers, systems engineers, and cybersecurity specialists. Combined with data from the USDA Economic Research Service reporting increased educational attainment in rural areas, a confluence of demand, opportunity, and ability appears (for a deeper look at these issues, please see this Smart Rural Community report).

And then add a “sense of place.” A 2021 American Enterprise Institute survey found that 19% of big-city residents rate their cities as excellent places to live. By comparison, 30% of small-town residents and 36% of rural area residents rate their communities as excellent places to live. These data reflect perspectives on current conditions.

So, how does a community build to achieve its future rural self?

Recovery trends following the Great Recession argue for efforts to build accelerators and incentives that encourage those and other telework-capable jobs in rural spaces. Communities can measure progress and adjust where necessary, either individually or in regional coordination, by defining metrics or key point indicators (KPI). These can contemplate more factors than only the number of available jobs and include such data as average starting wages; healthcare and retirement benefits; commuting time; and opportunities for career advancement including promotions and training. These are, respectively, inflection points and KPI ?that can help communities envision and build toward future selves that are rooted in the best they have to offer, and which will ultimately look more familiar than the stranger future selves that are more commonly observed.