BUILDING THE DIKES: A Case for an Africa Anti-Coup Strategy
Empirical evidence suggests that democracy enables economic growth.[1]??However, this position is not without its critics.??The assertion does not prejudice communist China and its economic advances.[2]??Yet, the democracy-growth correlation is more jaundiced when comparing Sub-Saharan Africa to other regions.??For instance, democracy failed to yield sustained improvements in Africa’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita or its total GDP.[3][4]
Yet, there is a sufficient argument for democracy as Africa's best form of government.[5]??While the benevolent dictator holds some allure, there is insufficient empirical evidence to validate the promises. Instead, inclusive institutions can address several factors that dispose Africa to economic underperformance.[6]
Given that liberal democracy is a crucial channel for instituting inclusive institutions, Africans must strive to uphold this system of government and improve its chances of success. But, for now, we proceed with Winston Churchill's position that democracy remains the “worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried.”??Even Jason Brennan’s “epistocracy” - rule by citizens with political knowledge - positioned as a cure for the malaise of the uninformed voters, is hardly practical.[7]??In “Intellectuals and Society,” Thomas Sowell?was unsparing when he cautioned against arrogating too much relevance to intellectuals, who constitute about one percent of society.[8]
Africa must safeguard its democracy. Margaret Atwood, the Canadian writer, cautioned that “the fabric of democracy is always fragile everywhere because it depends on the will of citizens to protect it, and when they become scared, when it becomes dangerous for them to defend it, it can go very quickly.”??While democracy seems to be on a retreat globally[9], Africans still hold on to it.??An analysis[10]?of the 2018 Afrobarometer Survey showed that although there was a slight deep in preference for democracy from 72 percent in 2012 to 68 percent in 2018, Africans still showed high acceptance for multiparty competition (63 percent), high-quality elections (75 percent), and presidential term limits (75 percent).
Democracy in Africa faces significant challenges.??A 2016 study on “The Future of Democracy in Africa” shows that three reasons constrain this form of government from delivering on its development potential: lack of governance capacity, poor quality of electoral democracy, and neopatrimonialism that undermines electoral democracy.[11]??The paper presented two scenarios for Africa in 2070: a?democratic regression?or a?positive wave of democracy. The outcome depends on how the continent realises the critical components of electoral democracy.
Recent events point to a trend towards regressed democracy.??In the last two years, Africa recorded six military coup d’états: two in Burkina Faso and one each in Sudan, Guinea, Chad, and Mali.??This trend is a reversal from an Africa that saw a significant decline in coups for much of the past two decades.??In the decade before 2021, Africa recorded less than one successful coup a year.[12]??However, it has seen two already in 2022.
Is the Sahel region at a tipping point???With five military coups in the region, do the other countries risk a “neighbourhood effect?”??How does this risk interact with other challenges: violent insurgency, socio-economic hardships, severe impact of climate change, emerging geopolitical dynamics, and the threat of an impending global recession???What is the bulwark against the further spread of coups in the region???Who should be doing what, and when???What’s the role of former and current political leaders???Who coordinates the civil leaders (traditional and religious) to raise public opposition to coups???Is there a shared strategy amongst the different nations???If yes, who is coordinating it???If not, who should be?
Africa needs an anti-coup strategy.??The strategy, which should be developed in collaboration with its international partners, should strongly and unequivocally denounce every disruption to the democratic process.??While there is sufficient evidence to debunk the myth of a “good coup”,[13]?the U.S. government often flirts with that myth.[14]??The January 6, 2022, insurgency at the U.S. Capitol should caution U.S. leaders that coups are no longer restricted to the developing world.??The risk of nativist populism holds its risks for the West as well.??As such, there should be shared incentives to call a coup by its name with no prevarication.
African leaders and their development partners should not be lured by the supposed popularity of military coups even if the citizens take to the streets to celebrate the coupists.??Humans have selective amnesia.?Societies may experience a “halo effect” immediately following a coup as the people convince themselves that things will be different this time.??More importantly, citizens with a knee on their necks would hail anyone who provides some relief even when they fear that history may repeat itself.
Coups will probably continue until the world communicates, in clear terms, that there is no place for such arrangements.??The world has the tools to make this happen.??Economic sanctions can be effective, especially when such governments are cut off entirely from capital markets and development funds.??The West may not be eager to pursue such a strategy unless it has partners in Africa – previous and current leaders – championing such a course.??The arguments against sanctions are well-documented, especially the impact on the citizens.??As with many public policy challenges, it will be a choice of lesser evils.??Whatever the case, the best time to build the dikes against the flood (of coups) was yesterday.??Today is the second-best time.
[1]?Helliwell, J.F., 1994. Empirical linkages between democracy and economic growth.?British Journal of Political Science, 24(2), pp.225-248.
[2]?Ang, Y.Y., 2016.?How China Escaped the Poverty Trap. Cornell University Press.
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[3]?Khodaverdian, S., 2022. The African tragedy: the effect of democracy on economic growth.?Empirical Economics, 62(3), pp.1147-1175.
[4]?The study locates “The Africa Tragedy” in demography changes (size of the population and changes in the age structure).??The evidence suggests that without significant improvements in health outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa, the region is set on a path toward a Malthusian trap.
[5]?Cheeseman, N. and Ayittey, G., Is multi-party democracy the best form of governance in African countries?. In?Debating African Issues?(pp. 237-249). Routledge.
[6]?Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, J.A., 2012.?Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. London: Profile.
[7]?Brennan, J., 2017.?Against Democracy. Princeton University Press.
[8]?Sowell, T., 2012.?Intellectuals and society. Hachette UK.
[9]?The 2019 Freedom in the World report titled,?Democracy in Retreat”,?showed that a decline in global freedom for the 13th consecutive year.??Even long-standing democracies are tending towards more authoritarian leaders.
[10]?Gyimah-Boadi, E. (2018).??Is there a retreat from democracy? Ask Africans.?Afrobarometer.
[11]?Cilliers, J., 2016. The future of democracy in Africa.?Institute for Security Studies Papers, 2016(19), pp.1-32.
[12]? Powell, Jonathan & Clayton Thyne. 2011. Global Instances of Coups from 1950-Present.?Journal of Peace Research?48(2):249-259.
[13]?Miller, A.C., 2011. Debunking the myth of the" good" coup d'etat in Africa.?African Studies Quarterly, 12(2), p.45.
[14]?Erica, D., 2022. Why does US still believe in the 'good coup'?. [online] Onlineathens.com. Available at:?https://www.onlineathens.com/story/opinion/2019/11/15/de-bruin-why-does-united-states-still-believe-myth-of-good-coup/2283866007/?[Accessed 5 October 2022].?
Business Development Consultant
2 年Interesting, but your article seems to imply that we should ignore the very trying events that typically lead to coups, wherever they exist, and just prevent coups at all cost. I agree coups are disruptive but sometimes that is what it takes to steer the ship away from the looming iceberg. Ironic that Western governments who actively sponsored coups in the past would be squeamish about the concept of coups to correct a bad system. Besides, some of the coups in the past two years that you cite were fostered and supported by some of the same Western governments. Some even pushed for coups in places where things seemed to be going well, at least from the citizens' point of view, rather making a bad situation worse. I think the simple answer lies in good governance. No doubt a careful study of the "why" would reveal the "how to" shield against or prevent coups, from a governance perspective.
Consultant in Political Monitoring, Analysis, and Strategic Advisory.
2 年?I think anti-coup strategy in Africa cannot be divorced from unfavorable democratic outcomes. In Africa, coups seldom emerge from a vacuum. There's almost always a backdrop of civil discontent with political leaders and status quo (the latest wave of coups indicate same). This is what forms the fertile ground that coupists exploit. I wager that it would be more pragmatic to proactively deal with this backdrop than to adopt an anti-coup stance after the deed has been done, and suffer the populace with economic sanctions. The backdrop can be dealt with by ensuring that democratic outcomes favour the populace and not the only the leaders. A coup should it happen in these circumstance would erode any form of "halo effect" and by extension any veneer of false legitimacy. A coup that has no backdrop to exploit is dead on arrival and would backfire in a matter of days, as citizens perception about it would be unfavorable and could form the springboard for resistance. The world should encourage African leaders to deliver on their mandates, as incompetent leadership not only threatens political stability of their countries but also regime security.
Adviser| Private Sector | Political Economy |
2 年I think Africa needs a couple of shining cities on a hill (nations with strong and effective state and a thriving democracy). Until we have these exemplary nations, African countries will be rolling the dice of coups, pseudo-democracy, autocracy, and whatever ideas that enter the heads of the elites and whoever is bold enough to shoot first.