Building a Confident Wind Industry in a 3X Renewables World

The wind industry is in a pivotal moment.

The historic COP28 adoption of a target to triple renewable energy by 2030 to accelerate the energy transition onto a Paris Agreement trajectory showed the extent to which the world needs an acceleration of wind power deployment reach its climate goals.

Among policymakers and international institutions, there is a strong understanding that the world must accelerate installations of existing, readily available technologies – namely wind and solar PV – if the world is going to move to a cleaner, modern and more flexible energy system in the timeframe required.

?This places both a unique opportunity and a unique challenge in front of our industry. Essentially, as outlined in this year’s Global Wind Report, we need to accelerate wind energy installations from a level of 117 GW in 2023 to at least 320 GW of annual installations by 2030. This tripling of annual wind installations would bring us to around 3 TW of cumulative wind energy capacity by the end of the decade.

It took us over 40 years to reach the 1 TW mark of worldwide installed wind power. We now expect to install the next 2 TW by the end of 2029, and even this isn’t enough.

?While reaching our goals is possible, it will require an unprecedented level of focus, determination, collaboration and ingenuity.

?Industry growth is speeding up, and the industry will set new records of annual growth every year from now on, according to Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) 's forecast in the just published Global Wind Report 2024. But as the report shows, current growth is highly concentrated in the key markets of China, the US, Germany, India and Brazil.

This will change in the coming years. An unprecedented number of countries have now established ambitious national targets – particularly those with strong offshore resources – including major industrial economies and large emerging markets such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Kenya. Supporting these countries to push through regulatory complexity and scale up investment will play a big part in accelerating wind installations beyond 300 GW per year.

?However, there are still many parts of the world where growth has been sluggish or non-existent, particularly in the Global South. Policymakers and investors will need to work hard to come up with better solutions for the millions of people in areas like sub-Saharan Africa to ensure that they too can play a role in the energy transition, and gain access to clean electricity and sustainable economic growth opportunities.

?At present, market frameworks are still rewarding investment in fossil fuels, while companies in renewable energy and other key transition areas see thin returns and sluggish equity valuations. Concerted effort will be needed to ensure enough finance flows to renewables, to remove planning barriers, and to ensure that the supply chain can grow to the level needed to keep the transition moving.

?But there is a strong case for optimism. Climate diplomacy is arguably the single most collaborative, action orientated, rules-based, multilateral discussion in the world right now. After 28 COP meetings, we are seeing the world sitting down seriously to discuss increasing climate action, preparing for fossil fuel phase out, and pledging to achieve 3X renewables and net zero. The push for 3X is slowly but surely filtering into targets, policy and regulation as governments look to the means on hand – essentially wind and solar PV – to meet their climate commitments.

?The Global Renewables Alliance (GRA) – initiated by GWEC and the leading global renewable technology associations to create a combined voice – has found massive public and political support for its message of “Double Down, Triple Up, Time 4 Action.”

?Meanwhile, the three main emitting blocs, China, the US and Europe, are all taking unprecedented action to speed up emissions reduction and build green industries, with massive programs of policy, regulatory and financial support. This is already having a big effect, with record installations in China, an approaching installation rush for onshore and offshore in the US and positive effect of new regulatory urgency in the key European market of Germany.

?GWEC is working hard with governments, stakeholders and companies to continue working through the bottlenecks in countries around the world – many highlighted in the Global Wind Report’s Markets to Watch – through initiatives such as the Global Offshore Wind Alliance, the Ocean Energy Pathway technical assistance programme, Women in Wind, our work on supply chains and other activities.

?The shift towards greater urgency and action is hugely positive. But at the same time, we face increased economic and social volatility, the predominance of geopolitical thinking and a return to widespread military action. These days, as the UN Secretary General has lamented, countries seem to turn to force before thinking of the wider consequences.

?Governments will need to find the right balance between national industrial policy on the one hand, and maintaining open global trade, competition and innovation on the other. We need to try very hard to make sure that healthy competition for leadership in the energy transition does not turn into rivalry, protectionism, trade wars, deepened inequity for the Global South and a race to secure materials at the expense of others.

?International collaboration, dialogue and managed competition: these will continue to be the bedrock of economic growth and the energy transition in the coming period.

?The alternative is a fragmented world and military conflict, and an inward-looking, more hostile political climate where extremist ideas and false narratives can run wild. In my view, this “dark domino” scenario would have dire impacts for the transition and renewable energy sector.

?The wind industry can’t fix all these problems, of course. But it can help fix the most important – runaway climate change – while injecting positivity and hope into society’s discussion and providing a pathway to a fairer and more prosperous planet. We can push for collaboration across geographies and cultures, inclusivity, building new and unprecedented mega engineering projects that are truly awesome – these are some of the things which we can contribute as we expand and mature as a sector.

?The challenges are many. But the important thing is put fear aside and take the concrete steps every day that are needed to overcome these challenges.

?Working together, we are confident that the wind industry will contribute to the building of the Confident Green World that we all wish to see.

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