Build the plane as you fly it, but the missiles don't stop falling...

Building a Global Peace: Lessons from Switzerland and Beyond

With the recent escalation in weaponry, including longer-range missiles being used in the war in Ukraine, including the French PM Macron statement to ship Mirage 2000 warplans and training, I questioned whether there is currently sufficient international support for a high-level conference to launch the peace process in Ukraine, even though French PM Macron will also attend this upcoming peace summit in Switzerland. These days, it seems, everyone is building the plane as you fly it.

Historical Peace Conferences: Lessons from the Past

Everyone knows that it is not easy to build a place as you fly it. A few years ago, I had a near-fatal head injury while trying to adjust my bicycle seat on the move at 4km/h (walking speed). But things are moving much faster these days, and I have never heard so many nuclear threats in so little time. So what could happen now in the coming days, weeks, and months... of increased war in Ukraine, and what about the other wars in so many different parts of the world?

Switzerland will host the Ukraine Peace Summit at the BurgenStock mountain retreat. Switzerland’s renowned neutrality and experience in mediating international disputes make it a credible host for such a conference. However, the prospect of convening this conference without Russia's participation introduces significant complexities and risks that need careful consideration.

Reflecting on why historical peace conferences failed can provide valuable insights for the present situation. Here are some key lessons:

1. Lack of Buy-In and Commitment: Agreements without the direct involvement of conflict parties lack legitimacy and commitment from those affected. For example, the Treaty of Versailles (1919), imposed on Germany without its meaningful participation, led to long-term resentment and eventually World War II.
2. Absence of Key Perspectives: Excluding key parties means their grievances, needs, and perspectives are not addressed. ( Ukrainian 10 point peace plan, Chinese 12 point peace plan, among many other peace and war plans being drafted as we speak) The Oslo Accords (1993) initially excluded some major Palestinian factions, which later undermined the peace process.
3. Implementation Challenges: Agreements reached without the involvement of conflict parties face significant challenges, as the necessary support and cooperation are missing. The Dayton Accords (1995) struggled with implementation because some local leaders felt sidelined.
4. Continued (and accelerating) Hostilities: When key conflict parties are not engaged, they may continue hostilities, viewing the outcomes as illegitimate. The exclusion of the Taliban from the Bonn Agreement (2001) led to ongoing conflict in Afghanistan.
5. Erosion of Trust: Exclusion erodes trust and goodwill, essential for lasting peace. There are even fears that Switzerland as a host might be losing its neutrality by Russian and some other parties. The Paris Peace Conference (1919-1920) excluded Soviet Russia, exacerbating East-West tensions and contributing to the Cold War.
6. Missed Opportunities for Comprehensive Solutions: Peace processes without all conflict parties often result in superficial or temporary fixes. The exclusion of ethnic Albanian representatives from early stages of the Rambouillet negotiations (1999) hindered comprehensive solutions for the Kosovo crisis.
7. Missed opportunities for ceasefire and de-escalation.

So what Can Ukraine Learn from Switzerland?

1. Conflict Mediation and Diplomacy: Switzerland's extensive experience in hosting international peace talks can benefit Ukraine. Swiss expertise in mediation and facilitating dialogue between conflicting parties is invaluable.
2. Swiss Multilingualism: Switzerland manages and celebrates its multilingual and multicultural population, providing a framework for Ukraine to foster unity and inclusion among its diverse population. How will Ukraine be able to build its nation with both Ukrainian and Russian speaking populations? Promoting language and cultural inclusivity can strengthen national cohesion. Multilingualism, a key building block in the European Union, is seen as a source of strength rather than a threat.
3. Swiss Neutrality: Switzerland's longstanding policy of neutrality has enabled it to avoid external conflicts while maintaining strong international relations. Ukraine can explore how strategic neutrality might foster peace and stability in its region.
4. Swiss Success: Despite its small size and limited natural resources, Switzerland is a beacon of stability and prosperity. Ukraine can emulate Switzerland's focus on innovation, education, and high-quality infrastructure to build a robust economy.
5. Swiss Democracy: Switzerland’s model of direct democracy, where citizens have a direct say in legislation through referendums and initiatives, can inspire Ukraine to enhance its democratic processes and increase public participation in governance. Learning about the self-determination of regions and communes and the decentralization of governance can also be beneficial.
6. Economic Success: Switzerland’s strong financial sector, high-quality manufacturing, and commitment to free trade offer valuable insights for Ukraine to diversify and strengthen its economy.
7. Education and Innovation: Switzerland’s emphasis on education, particularly in science and technology, drives its innovation and economic success. Ukraine can invest in similar educational reforms to boost its technological advancements and global competitiveness.
8. Low Levels of Corruption: Switzerland has a robust system to reduce corruption and increase accountability and transparency at all levels. Ukraine can learn from Swiss practices such as stringent anti-corruption laws, independent oversight bodies, and a strong legal framework that holds public officials accountable.

So what is "building the plane as we fly" for Peace:

In our pursuit of peace, several key actions can pave the way for a more harmonious world: A ceasefire would be most practical, of course, but when impossible, we can consider the following ideas:

1. Promote Dialogue and Diplomacy

Encourage open, inclusive, and continuous dialogue between conflicting parties. Establish neutral platforms for mediation and negotiation to resolve disputes peacefully.

2. Strengthen International Institutions

Support and reform international bodies like the United Nations to ensure they are effective in conflict resolution, peacekeeping, and fostering cooperation among nations. What happened to the use of UN Blue Helmets for peace-building and maintaining peace?

3. Enhance Economic Cooperation

Foster economic interdependence through trade, investment, and development programs. Address global inequalities by supporting sustainable development in impoverished regions. We might need to review the value and effective use of sanctions. seriously!

4. Invest in Education and Culture

Promote education systems that emphasize critical thinking, empathy, and global citizenship. Encourage linguistic and cultural exchange programs to build mutual understanding and respect among different cultures. What can Switzerland and Europe teach us about multiculturalism and multilinguism?

5. Ensure Justice and Human Rights

Uphold international laws and human rights standards. Support justice systems that can fairly and effectively address grievances and hold violators accountable.

6. Promote Sustainable Development

In many cases, we can address the root causes of conflict, such as poverty, resource scarcity, and environmental degradation, through sustainable development initiatives. But in some cases, the root cause of conflict in geopolitical, and so international law should be more clear for a planetary level of sustainable development, especially in times of climate crisis.

7. Strengthen Civil Society

Empower local communities and civil society organizations to participate in peace-building efforts. Ensure their voices are heard in national and international forums. The Swiss-Ukraine Peace summit should include civil society and business... we cannot afford to leave the discussions only in the hands of politicians.. can we?

8. Support Disarmament and Non-Proliferation

Work towards the reduction and elimination of weapons of mass destruction. Promote disarmament initiatives and strengthen non-proliferation treaties. Here, significant improvements to the the UN security council processes and powers and the UN general Assembly processes and powers must be reviewed for a UN 2.0 upgrade with urgency. No nation should risk Nuclear warfare... I hope this is crystal clear for everyone reading...

lastly, I know that AI is being used in the war in Ukraine and elsewhere. So I ask myself that last question, how does AI has the potential to significantly contribute to peacebuilding? here are some possible ways to think:

1. Data Analysis for Conflict Prevention: AI can analyze vast amounts of data from various sources, including social media, news reports, and satellite imagery, to identify early signs of conflict or tension. By detecting patterns and trends, AI systems can provide early warnings, enabling policymakers and peacekeepers to take preventive action. Having open, transparent, accountable, and accessible information here would be valuable to all stakeholders in both the war reduction and peace effort.
2. Mediation and Negotiation Support: AI-powered negotiation platforms can assist mediators and negotiators by providing real-time analysis of negotiation dynamics, suggesting potential compromise solutions, and predicting the outcomes of different negotiation strategies. These tools can help facilitate more effective and efficient peace talks and truly help us reduce misinformation and disinformation.
3. Conflict Resolution and Reconciliation: AI can analyze historical data on conflicts, peace processes, and reconciliation efforts to identify common patterns and strategies that have been successful in resolving conflicts. This knowledge can inform the development of more effective conflict resolution and reconciliation initiatives. I played around with integrating the Ukrainian peace plan with the Chinese peace plan, and also other peace plans created by complex negotiators I know in Geneva. The results are outstanding and do contact me if you want to know more here or perhaps I will publish in near future my results on this.
4. Monitoring and Verification of Peace Agreements: AI-enabled monitoring systems can help ensure compliance with peace agreements by monitoring key indicators, such as troop movements, ceasefire violations, and human rights abuses. These systems can provide timely and accurate information to peacekeeping missions and international observers, helping to prevent violations and build trust between conflicting parties.
5. Countering Disinformation and Propaganda: AI algorithms can analyze online content to detect and combat disinformation and propaganda campaigns aimed at fueling conflict or undermining peace efforts. By identifying false narratives and promoting fact-based information, AI can help reduce tensions and foster dialogue and understanding.
6. Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response: AI-powered predictive analytics can help humanitarian organizations anticipate and respond to humanitarian crises, such as natural disasters and refugee flows, more effectively. By analyzing data on population movements, resource availability, and infrastructure damage, AI systems can help optimize the allocation of resources and improve the delivery of aid to those in need. I feel this is where Switzerland can do more to match its neutrality, and humanitarian tradition and to promote greater peace in ukraine and around the world.

Hope you enjoyed reading me as much I as enjoyed drafting this. Do share your thoughts on pathways to peacebuilding today.