Buhari's Second Term: Making 2019 to 2023 Count for Nigeria

SETTING AGENDA FOR BUHARI'S 2ND TERM: 

6 THINGS BUHARI NEEDS TO WORK ON AS HE BEGINS HIS SECOND TERM

1. Reducing the Burden of the Centre - Review of Sub and Super-Structure

The need to have more viable federating units, depopulate the almighty exclusive legislative list, devolve power, cut down big government and allow each region develop and own its competitive advantage are key discussions around which the current debate on restructuring is focused. While these issues are germane, we may actually be leaving out a key ingredient needed for the success of any restructuring effort – A focus on the hewers of wood and fetchers of water as defined by “the base”. Drawing from the Marxist view of society - human societies consist of two structures - 1. Super-structure (as defined by the nature of governance and political power) and 2. The base or sub-structure (as defined by wealth distribution and the forces that shape production). While our argument on restructuring has tended to focus on the super-structure, truth be told, restructuring will have little or no impact except we also focus on the base. While it is true that in a restructured Nigeria, each region will have responsibility for the base; we must yet have a common denominator if we hope to lower social tension and create a harmonious relationship between federating units post-restructuring.

2. The Economy

Nigeria exited recession in Q2 2017 having overcome 5 consecutive quarters of negative growth; as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.55% (year-on-year) in real terms. Since then, Nigeria's growth has been rather sluggish as mass migration to greener pastures in Europe, America and Asia continues to happen especially among the middle class, draining the much-needed brains required for national revival. At the lower end of the pyramid, millions are now within the poverty bracket, with the outcome being banditry and criminal activities especially in the Northern parts of the Country. There is a need therefore for a more robust growth so job and poverty alleviation can begin to soothe frayed nerves.

Beyond growth, however, the real impact of economic progress will come if government assiduously focus its attention on development rather than growth. It is often said that while growth is about figures, development is about people. Currently, all development indicators, compared to Nigeria's resources, are still abysmally low. How do you explain these ratings?

i. Unemployment rate: 14.2%

ii. Life Expectancy - 52.75

iii. Probability of dying between 15 and 60 years m/f (per 1 000 population, 2015) 368/318

iv. Number of school-aged Children out of School - v..5Million (the highest number in sub-Saharan Africa)

v. Population below $1.90 per day poverty line - 53.5%

vi. Human Development Index: 152 out of 188 Countries

When you compare these low Human development ratings with other indicators, the picture as regards the work needed to get Nigeria out of the woods become even larger:

vii. Index of Economic Freedom - 116 out of 176 Countries

viii. Global Competitiveness Index - 127 out of 148 Countries

ix. Doing Business Index - 169 out of 189 Countries

x. Corruption Perception Index - 136 out of 177 Countries.

3. Changing the Value System

How do we change the values associated with leadership and above all, how do we end the cycle of poverty that fuels crisis and causes instability? So, while we work on streamlining the super-structure, we must not forget the base. For me, addressing the failure associated with production and real development at the base requires three things:

4. Education

Tied to poverty is illiteracy. How do we avail the right kind of education that can feed our development needs? Is it the education that prioritises white-collar jobs or blue-collar, one that seeks to accelerate development and one that targets the bottom of the pyramid - giving them requisite vocational skills that can feed into a chain of small businesses and can guarantee a supply of support skills that can help quicken our infrastructure and industrial development?

5.Energy

Growth and Development are actually not synonyms. In Nigeria's case, before 2015, growth had averaged 5.4% for 10 years (2005 -2014) without commensurate development. How can a nation fast-track development with electricity supplies to the national grid averaging 2,500 Megawatts in a nation of 187 million people? It is often said that small businesses are the engine room of development in any economy, and China remains a classic example. There is a correlation between access to energy and cost of doing business as well as the development of small businesses.

6. Agriculture and Food Security

Agriculture contributes about 39% of Nigeria's GDP but it is largely done at subsistence level with no empowerment for the rural and small-holder farmer, hence the high-level of rural-urban drift and tied to this is the high level of destitute and crime in our urban centres. How can we empower small-holder farmers, implement a value chain approach to the development of our Agriculture while moving from Farm-gate to factory-gate?

Buhari needs to answer these questions, and by so doing,[ deliver a Nigeria that works. This will indeed be a worthy legacy for a man who has been part of every Presidential contest since this republic began.

MAY NIGERIA SUCCEED