BTT (10th) - UK New Conservative Leader, Myanmar Crisis & USA Presidential Elections
Lin Haoying
Innovation @ Credit Agricole | NUS Business School | NUS Sustainability & Governance Emissary
Welcome to the 10th Edition of Beyond The Ticker! Over the past ten weeks, we have welcomed a total of 280 new subscribers. Thank you to everyone who has joined us and made this a part of your weekly routine.
This week will be pivotal as we approach the highly anticipated U.S. Presidential Elections of 2024. Recently, several significant events have occurred, including the appointment of Kemi Badenoch as the new leader of the Conservative Party in the UK, the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, and discussions surrounding the implications of the U.S. elections for Asia.
[UK] New Conservative Party Leader - Kemi Badenoch
Kemi Badenoch, appointed as the leader of the UK Conservative Party on November 2, 2024, is a prominent figure in British politics, known for her strong convictions and often contentious stances. Born in the UK to Nigerian parents, Badenoch has made history as the first Black woman to lead a major political party in Britain. Her political career has been marked by a commitment to conservative principles and a desire to return the party to its foundational values after what she perceives as a drift towards the political center. She believes that the Conservatives lost ground in the last general election because they "spoke right but governed left," emphasizing the need for the party to stop mimicking Labour and instead embrace traditional conservative policies (BBC News, 2024; The Economist, 2024).
Badenoch's policies focus on several key areas:
Anti-Woke Agenda: She has positioned herself against what she terms "progressive identity politics," criticizing liberal interest groups that she believes undermine Conservative policies. This includes a strong opposition to "woke" ideologies that promote social justice narratives, which she argues contribute to societal divisions and bureaucratic overreach (The Economist, 2024).
Economic Policy: Badenoch advocates for reducing government regulations and public expenditure, arguing that excessive bureaucracy stifles economic growth. She has proposed a "war on the blob," referring to what she sees as a new bureaucratic class that perpetuates ineffective governance and hinders progress (The Economist, 2024).
Immigration: While supportive of Brexit, Badenoch has nuanced views on immigration. She emphasizes the importance of cultural integration over numerical targets for immigration, suggesting that who enters the UK and their intentions are more critical than sheer numbers (New York Times, 2024).
Social Issues: Badenoch has taken strong positions on issues such as gender identity, opposing self-certification for transgender individuals and advocating for traditional views on gender roles. Her remarks have often sparked controversy, reflecting her combative style and willingness to engage in polarizing debates (BBC News, 2024; Wikipedia, 2024).
Badenoch's leadership could lead to a significant shift in UK domestic policy. Her focus on reducing government intervention may appeal to traditional Conservative voters but could alienate centrist constituents who favor more progressive policies. As she seeks to rejuvenate the party ahead of the next general election in 2029, her ability to unify different factions within the party will be crucial. The potential for increased polarization in British politics is high, particularly regarding social issues where her views may clash with those of more moderate voters.
[ASEAN] Myanmar Crisis
The situation in Myanmar remains critical as the country grapples with a multifaceted crisis that has escalated since the military coup on 1 February 2021. The junta, led by General Min Aung Hlaing, has intensified its violent crackdown on dissent, resulting in widespread human rights abuses and a severe humanitarian crisis affecting millions of civilians.
Since the coup, Myanmar has witnessed a dramatic deterioration in human rights conditions. The military has employed brutal tactics, including airstrikes and artillery shelling against civilian populations, leading to an estimated 5,000 civilian deaths and the displacement of over 3 million people. Reports indicate that more than 20 million individuals require urgent humanitarian assistance. The situation is particularly dire for the Rohingya population, who face systemic violence and persecution, exacerbating their plight as they attempt to flee ongoing hostilities (Human Rights Watch, 2024; UN Security Council, 2024).
The United Nations has expressed deep concern over the escalating violence and the humanitarian implications of the junta's actions. In recent statements, UN officials have called for urgent international action to address the crisis, including imposing arms embargoes and targeted sanctions against military-owned enterprises. However, progress has been hampered by geopolitical dynamics, particularly the veto power held by China and Russia within the UN Security Council, which has blocked meaningful resolutions and actions to hold the junta accountable (Human Rights Watch, 2024; Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, 2023).
[USA] Presidential Election - Impact on Asia?
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the political landscape is increasingly polarized, with significant implications for both domestic and international audiences. Recent developments highlight the contrasting positions of the leading candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, as they prepare for a contentious electoral battle.
President Biden's administration is facing mounting challenges, including economic concerns such as inflation and a divided Congress that complicates legislative efforts. His approval ratings have dipped as public dissatisfaction grows regarding the pace of economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. The political environment is further complicated by Trump's ongoing influence within the Republican Party, where he remains a formidable candidate despite legal challenges and controversies surrounding his previous administration (BBC News, 2024).
The implications of this election extend beyond American shores. If Trump were to secure a second term, analysts predict a continuation of his confrontational stance toward China. This could lead to heightened tensions in trade relations and increased military posturing in the Asia-Pacific region. Trump's previous administration saw significant tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and a withdrawal from international agreements that could be detrimental to regional stability (Channel News Asia, 2024). In contrast, a Harris presidency would likely prioritize diplomacy and partnership with Asian nations, potentially fostering stronger economic ties and collaborative efforts on pressing issues like climate change and public health.
Malaysia’s Deputy Investment, Trade and Industry Minister - Liew Chin Tong's assertion that the difference between Harris and Trump is one of intensity rather than direction suggests that while both candidates may pursue similar goals regarding U.S.-China relations—such as containing China's rise—their approaches could lead to vastly different outcomes for regional stability. A Trump presidency might escalate tensions further, while a Harris-led administration could seek to mitigate conflicts through dialogue and cooperation (Straits Times, 2024).
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
Current Financial Metrics:
Palantir has shown significant growth potential, driven by its strong position in the AI sector. The company's revenue has a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.1%, with expectations of 24% growth for Fiscal 2024 and 20.7% for Fiscal 2025 (Yahoo Finance, 2023). Notably, Palantir's net dollar retention rate of 114% indicates that existing customers are increasing their spending, which is a positive sign for future revenues (Palantir Technologies, 2023).
However, the stock's high P/E ratio suggests that much of this growth is already priced in, raising concerns about valuation sustainability. Analysts have mixed views; while some see potential for significant upside due to AI demand, others caution against high expectations given the stock's volatility and expensive valuation metrics (The Motley Fool, 2023).
领英推荐
CVS Health Corporation (CVS)
Current Financial Metrics
Shares of CVS Health?dropped 3.2%?after the release of its disappointing?Q2 earnings ?on Aug. 7. While it surpassed its EPS expectations, it fell short of revenue expectations. The next earnings will be announced on November 6th.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect CVS’s EPS?to decline 26.7%?year over year to $6.41. Moreover, the company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It exceeded the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing on one occasion. CVS Health stock has a?consensus “Moderate Buy”?rating. Out of 24 analysts covering the stock, 12 recommend a "Strong Buy," three suggest a "Moderate Buy," and nine advise a "Hold."
Thought-Provoking Question of the Week
"In an increasingly digital world, how should companies balance the need for data-driven decision-making with the ethical considerations of consumer privacy?"
Authored by: Lin Haoying
Thank you for taking the time to read the 9th edition of this newsletter! I created this platform as a personal initiative to stay informed about market news and general affairs. My hope is that you will gain as much insight from this journey as I have while compiling it. Currently, I am a student at the National University of Singapore (NUS) Business School, where I am pursuing a Bachelor of Business Administration with a major in Finance and a minor in Information Systems. My interests lie at the intersection of finance, technology, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues. Future editions of this newsletter will focus on these three topics, providing deeper insights and analyses as I continue to learn and grow in these fields.
References
BBC News. (2024). Kemi Badenoch: Who is new Tory leader and what does she stand for? Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1d59k513qgo
The Economist. (2024). Kemi Badenoch, the Tories’ new leader, plans war on the “blob.” Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/11/02/kemi-badenoch-the-tories-new-leader-plans-war-on-the-blob
New York Times. (2024). Kemi Badenoch, New Leader of the U.K.’s Tories, Vows to Make the Party More Conservative. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/world/europe/kemi-badenoch-uk-tory-leadership-election-2024.html
Wikipedia. (2024). Kemi Badenoch - Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemi_Badenoch
Human Rights Watch. (2024). UN shows conflicting approaches to Myanmar crisis. Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/04/04/un-shows-conflicting-approaches-myanmar-crisis
Special Advisory Council for Myanmar. (2023). New SAC-M Report: How the UN Is Failing Myanmar. Retrieved from https://specialadvisorycouncil.org/2023/10/report-un-failing-myanmar/
UN Security Council. (2024). As Crisis in Myanmar Worsens, Security Council Must Take Resolute Action to End Violence by Country’s Military. Retrieved from https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15652.doc.htm
Straits Times. (2024). If Asia could vote: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? Retrieved from https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/if-asia-could-vote-kamala-harris-or-donald-trump
Channel News Asia. (2024). Two roads to the same cliff? What a Harris or Trump presidency could mean for China-US ties. Retrieved from https://www.channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/china-policy-us-presidential-election-harris-trump-trade-taiwan-4712801
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Palantir Technologies: Analyzing Growth Potential vs. Valuation Risks. Retrieved from https://www.fool.com
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