BTC/USD, DAILY TIMEFRAME

Since our last analysis, buyers managed to push the price of Bitcoin toward the Daily Supply Zone (61,542.00-63,073.00), which then consolidated around the trendline. With the confluence of the Daily Supply Zone and trendline, sellers took control on 2nd July 2024, pushing the price down to the Daily Demand Zone (i) (57,195.00-58,735.00), breaking the recent low of 58,367.00 from 24th June 2024. This indicates dollar strength against Bitcoin.

Last week's Non-Farm Employment Change data exceeded expectations, coming in at 206K versus the forecast of 191K and previous 218K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1% from 4.0%, matching the forecast of 4.0%. These mixed signals suggested gains in the dollar, as evidenced by the price action and volatility.

Sellers' persistence is evident, with the price trading in the Daily Demand Zone (ii) (53,003.00-54,962.00) and being rejected, indicating buyer presence. We expect consolidation until the CPI data release.

As of today, 8th July 2024, Bitcoin continues to trade below the key level of 58,367.00 and between the two Daily Demand Zones. Earlier today, the price tested and was again rejected by the Daily Demand Zone (ii), showing strong buyer resistance.

Since the price is trading below the Daily Demand Zone (i), we will temporarily rename it to Daily Supply Zone (i) (57,195.00-58,735.00). This week is likely to be volatile, with Jerome Powell testifying on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by the USD CPI announcement on Thursday. The previous CPI reading was 3.3%, with a forecast drop to 3.1%. A reading above 3.1% would likely strengthen the dollar, while a reading below 3.1% would suggest reducing inflation, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Additionally, USD PPI data will be released on Friday.

To get a better perspective on the price movement, check out my previous analysis: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/chiyaba-chiwala-762397109_btcusd-bitcoin-usd-activity-7211513029803294720-a_KG?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

It is important to note that the timing of these movements, whether upward or downward, remains uncertain and will be determined by market dynamics.