BTC US$79K. Trump creates Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

In Markets

Few could have predicted that President Donald Trump would both honour the insanely bullish crypto promises he made during his campaign — including the creation of a Bitcoin reserve — and that crypto markets would tank anyway. But prices are down across the board since January’s inauguration, with Bitcoin down 18.5%, Ethereum falling 35.5% and Solana diving 49.1% (TRON somehow managed to increase 2.9%). As of yesterday, Trump's own crypto project World Liberty Financial had lost more than US$110M on paper. The current crash isn’t primarily about crypto, however, with the Nasdaq losing 4% and the S&P 500 closing 2.8 per cent lower on Monday as Trump declined to rule out the possibility of a recession. Adding to the gloom, there's a Friday deadline for an agreement to avert a US government shutdown. Even Trump’s biggest supporters are uncertain where his tariffs and trade war strategy is headed, although podcaster Anthony Pompilano argues that he’s crashing markets deliberately to get interest rates down ahead of the US refinancing US$7 trillion in debt in the next six months. Bitcoin is down 7% this week to trade around US$79,625, while Ethereum has fallen another 11% to trade at US$1,882. Everything else was down, including XRP (-12%), Solana (-15%), Cardano (-19%) and Dogecoin (-20%). While Bitcoin is down around 28% from its peak, Rektcapital points out that BTC has seen four corrections greater than 20% this bull run, with the deepest in mid-2024, retracing 32.8%. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index finishes the week at 20, or Extreme Fear.

From the OTC Desk

Market overview

• Bears in full control: Despite pro-crypto developments this week, including an executive order establishing a strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the United States and a crypto summit hosted by the President, bears dominated the market. BTC/USD began the week at $US86,055. It briefly rose to US$93,000 due to market excitement from positive news but failed to sustain the upward momentum, and we hit lows of $US77,000 on Independent Reserve just hours ago.

• The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: The executive order stipulates that Bitcoin in the Reserve will not be sold and authorises the Secretary of Treasury and Commerce to develop budget-neutral strategies if there are no incremental costs to taxpayers. However, the market viewed this as negative, as there was no further commitment to purchase assets, and furthermore, the other altcoins mentioned by Trump were not referenced. This correspondingly led to further pain in the altcoin space, as ETH/USD traded down to lows of $US1,763 and SOL/USD traded down to 113.9. BTC Dominance is now at 62.03%, up from 61.27% at the start of the week.
• Global macro conditions added further headwinds: The U.S. stock market lost US$4 trillion in value with the imposition of new tariffs. The Nasdaq 100 saw its worst day since 2022, dipping 3.8%, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%. Tesla Inc. sank 15% on the day as well, adding further downside pressure to the cryptocurrency industry. Market participants are concerned about the possibility of a recession, but some others have suggested that it might be a potential strategy by the Trump administration to push an agenda for lower interest rates.

OTC desk activity

• The desk has noticed increased altcoin buying at current levels, while earlier this week, we observed more sell-flows in major cryptocurrencies when markets were stronger.
• The desk saw heavy stablecoin buying over the week.?

Key economic calendar events (SGT)

• Wednesday, March 12, 8:30 p.m.: U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus: 2.9%)
• Wednesday, March 12, 8:30 p.m.: U.S. Core Inflation Rate YoY (Consensus: 3.2%)
• Thursday, March 13, 8:30 p.m.: U.S. PPI MoM (Consensus: 0.3%)
• Monday, March 17, 10:00 a.m.: China Industrial Production YoY
• Monday, March 17, 10:00 a.m.: China Retail Sales YoY?

In Headlines

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Incredibly enough the market crash comes in the same week Trump signed an executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The reserve will never sell any Bitcoin seized in criminal or civil proceedings, with Crypto Czar David Sacks calling it a "digital Fort Knox for cryptocurrency" and ordering a full audit of how much Bitcoin the US currently has (200,000 BTC is the oft-cited figure). The Treasury and Commerce departments won’t be immediately buying Bitcoin but will be able to develop "budget-neutral strategies" for acquiring additional Bitcoin. Ether, which Trump said just a few days earlier would be at the “heart” of the reserve, has been relegated to a separate “US digital asset stockpile”, along with XRP, ADA and SOL. Digital assets from this secondary stockpile may be sold.

Community underwhelmed by reserve

The reaction to the Reserve announcement was mixed, with Bitcoin falling 6% immediately afterwards, likely due to dashed hopes the Government might start buying up Bitcoin to add to the reserve (although that would likely require legislation and not just an executive order). “This limited scope fell short of market expectations and resulted in considerable disappointment,” Temujin Louie, CEO of Wanchain said. Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise’s head of research argued, however, that the new Reserve means "other countries will buy Bitcoin" and financial institutions will no longer have any excuse to not invest in it. Austin Arnold, co-founder of Altcoin Daily, said the price fall was just a sell-the-news event and “Long term, this is bullish.”

Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

The Texas Senate has voted to approve the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Investment Act. The act establishes a reserve to stockpile Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies with a market cap above US$500 billion. "Some have called Bitcoin ‘digital gold,’ and I believe its limited supply and decentralised nature make it a critical asset for Texas’ future,” said Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives where it needs to pass before becoming law.?

White House Crypto Summit

The first White House crypto summit was held in the State Dining Room last week, with top officials and legislators along with Strategy's Michael Saylor, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Gemini's Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and Bitcoin entrepreneur David Bailey. During the event Trump backed legislation providing "regulatory certainty" for crypto and said that he wants to see a stablecoin bill on his desk before August. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the government intends to use stablecoins to keep USD the dominant currency of the world. Meanwhile, sources told Decrypt today that Trump is set to sign another executive order this week to explicitly roll back the rules aimed at debanking crypto companies as part of Operation Chokepoint 2.0.

Pectra upgrade under attack

Ethereum's forthcoming Pectra upgrade hit a snag on the Sepolia testnet after an attacker repeatedly sent zero value transfers causing nodes to produce empty blocks. After a bit of back and forth the devs came up with a fix and the upgrade is now stable. Pectra also encountered a bug during testing on the previous Holesky testnet.

OCC greenlights banks to custody crypto

US regulator, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, has released guidance confirming that national banks and federal savings associations are allowed to custody crypto assets and to use stablecoins. It also permits the "participation in independent node verification networks such as distributed ledger." The new guidance was contained in a letter rescinding the previous requirement for OCC-supervised institutions to seek permission to deal in crypto due to liquidity risks.

Singapore Exchange to list Bitcoin perpetual futures

Singapore Exchange (SGX) is set to launch Bitcoin perpetual futures in the second half of 2025, expanding institutional access to crypto derivatives. The move comes as major traditional exchanges deepen their involvement in digital assets, buoyed by President Trump’s pro-crypto stance. According to a report by Bloomberg, SGX aims to bridge the gap between regulated financial markets and crypto trading, with a strict focus on institutional clients and professional investors. While the offering is still awaiting regulatory approval, the exchange believes its strong credit rating and structured approach will provide a trusted alternative to offshore crypto derivatives platforms.?

Bits and pieces?

Deepfake scams have hit Singapore again, with fraudsters using AI-generated videos to impersonate Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, falsely endorsing cryptocurrency schemes. Wong issued a public warning after seeing fake ads featuring him on social media, urging Singaporeans to stay vigilant and report suspicious content. Former Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was similarly targeted in 2023, with scammers using deepfake technology to fake an interview endorsing a crypto investment. Michael Saylor’s Strategy has announced it will issue and sell US$21 billion of perpetual strike preferred stock to buy more Bitcoin.

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