BTC ETF Charts
I'm looking forward to this debate with Bloomberg's James Seyffart and Blockwork's Felix Jauvin at Permissionless III in Salt Lake.
??updating some of my charts.
I will explain onstage.
Breakdown of Assets
Total asset growth stalled in March. iShares IBIT (blue) is taking a bigger and bigger share from Grayscale GBTC (orange). Everything else (red) is about a third.
Daily and Cumulative Flows
$18B in cumulative flows (black). Where did most of it come from?
Hedge fund basis trades (not directional bets) and transfers from on-chain to trade accounts.
Coinbase's retail flows are down as they compete with ETFs for retail flows. Stock down too.
Average Purchase Price
Daily flows weighted by the close suggest that the $18B of flows (above) have an average purchase price of $61.5k. The current price is $62.3k.
So, the AVERAGE investor holds a 2% gain vs 4% for the AVERAGE money market investor.
Not good!
iShares (IBIT) vs Grayscale (GBTC) Assets
Grayscale fees 150 bps/year
iShares fees 30 bps/year
Yes, fees matter!
Average Trade Size
Blackrock said 80% of IBIT trades are from self-directed online brokerage accounts.
The average size is just $14.4k (black), far below other ETF favorites. This suggests that the BTC ETF is not an institutional or wealth manager product but a "retail tourist" product.
Staking Yields versus Treasury Yields
Why has the ETH ETF been struggling to attach money (net outflows since they started trading in July)?
ETH has a yield (green). There is no incentive to move to the Tradfi account and HODL the ETF ETFs and earn 0%.
Gold versus Crypto since The Halving
Gold appears to be the asset of choice for hedging against financial instability and monetary stimulus.
BTC versus 3x QQQ
If BTC is just leveraged QQQ, I would argue this is not good. We don't need another leveraged QQQ. We already have one.
BTC needs to be independent of leveraged QQQ. It must start acting like its own asset class, not another Mag 7 stock with leverage.
I comment on Financial Markets CLICK #jcobservations to see my posts
5 个月Surprised to see a respected economic commentator like you promoting Bitcoin Giving credibility to a worthless gambling chip is likely to lure less well informed investors to take unacceptable risks with their hard earned money Are you being paid a commission of some kind by the Bitcoin promoters?
Venture Developer, Board Member, Pre-Seed Investor
5 个月Same people (QQQ investors) chasing BTC, so predictable result. Equities Assets 55T USD BTC Asset value: 0.