Bryant Bank Market Update - December 7, 2023

Good morning, markets are quiet today after jobless claims differed little from forecasts, giving us no additional color on the state of the labor market before tomorrow’s November payroll data release.? Here’s where the benchmarks are now:

Yesterday, we found out that ADP’s data indicated private payroll gains from November surprised on the low side, but that is a volatile data series and today’s jobless data did not corroborate that indication.?

All eyes are now firmly fixed on tomorrow’s 7:30 AM release of November’s full payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and markets will likely be quite sensitive to a surprise in either direction.? A low-side surprise, as suggested by ADP’s data, will push rates down as it would further cement the market’s view that peak rates are behind us.? A high-side surprise would indicate the labor market is not slowing as presumed and give rates a lift as investors erase rate cuts they’ve penciled in for early 2024.

We hope you have a great day!? Please let us know if there is anything we can be doing to better serve your needs.

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Quote of the Day:? “Feeling gratitude and not expressing it is like wrapping a present and not giving it.”? --William Arthur Ward