THE BRO/KEN WALL BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE & NATIONAL SECURITY.

?1. Climate Change and National Security

Permit me to assume that a majority of us are aware now that climate change is a sustained deviation in climate patterns over a long period of time triggered by a combination of both natural and human forces with the ability to negatively affect the environment and the general quality of life of people in the society. Now, it is time we recognise that this "simple condition" has broken the hitherto thin wall it shared with national security.

Not generally recognised and perceived particularly as a security challenge, climate change has widened the dynamics of national security discourse to shift away from military threats. For better understanding, national security entails the aggregate of what guarantees the safety and stability of individuals and the entire state of a country. National security risks include, in addition to the actions of other nations, the effects of natural disasters amongst others.

Considering the perilous effects of devastation, destabilisation on societies as well as heavy human casualties, such wide dynamics now include not just military variables but the entirety of geographical, political, environmental, economic, social and cultural – that are necessary to guarantee the sovereignty, independence, promotion, protection, and maintenance of national interest and freedom from threat. The domino effects of climate change expose a community to varying conditions that continue to threaten not only human security and general social stability but also the security of a state.

2. Peculiar Effects

The effects of climate change vary according to geography.

Nigeria has a tropical climate, however, there are wide climatic variations in different regions of the country. With variable rainy and dry seasons, Nigeria is at the mercy of climate change as the residents are caught between the devils of drought and the deep blue sea of extreme flooding. It is hot and wet most of the year in the southeast but dry in the northeastern area and farther inland.

Impacts on security arise from extreme weather conditions as global warming (a consequence of climate change) precipitates a rise in global sea level, desertification, and their accompanying effects such as drought, extreme flooding, and increased health risks amongst others.

The effects of climate change trickle down an invisible pipeline that may not be easily linked to it. However, from the bottom up, discord and volatility in some Northern states moving towards the South West parts of the country can be traced to relocation or massive migration in search of fertile lands for survival -lands made infertile as a result of global warming. The effects of climate change target the environment particularly, but they are threats to human security especially undermining economic and social stability just as with war.

3. Sectioned Effects

The broader effects and linkages of climate change on societies today go beyond some random ecological happenstance as earlier held. Consequently, climate change and its effects have clear and permanent impacts on the ecosystem. Hence, making it not just an issue for environmentalists but also one for policymakers and security stakeholders.

By employing a bottom-up approach, established security issues can be alleviated by relevant sector experts. Owing to the existing precarious situation, and also as these new security challenges are not necessarily military in nature, I would chart the effects of climate change per sector, showing properties and statistics, with the expectation that this will expose looming weaknesses and loopholes.

4. Mitigation

The domino effect of climate change indicates that sectors will cross paths and work jointly. Segmenting these effects will support focus, where each sector addresses climate threats facing them head-on. This will help tackle the effects of climate change sub-divisionally and ultimately strengthen national security.

- E.g 1: Environment/Urban Planning

Sea level rise —> Extreme flooding —> exacerbated by obstructed drainages.

Terrifyingly, when the walls of national security are broken, the only way for a nation is down until the walls are built back up. Fixing each sectorial issues that affect the society geographically will mitigate the effects of climate change, help us adapt better to the consequences, and ultimately resolve the affected sectorial security. This is assuming there are experts in service available to deal with such issues - which brings us to the conclusion for the mitigation of this iterated prisoner’s dilemma situation.

CAPACITY-BUILDING

There is a growing consensus that climate change is the biggest challenge facing humankind, yet many are still ignorant of it or worse still, how it affects them, especially since its reality is often dismissed as some fancy science theory or scientific myth in a lot of circles. Summarily, capacity-building is building intellectual capacity e.g. through education, training, activities that develop and strengthen skills and knowledge, financial support, and investor-friendly regulations amongst others. With regard to climate change, it is simply understanding climate change, its effects as it applies to your geography, how to adapt to them and ultimately, how to mitigate the effects, in a personal capacity and co-operatively.

Capacity-building provides opportunities for stakeholders to share their experiences, and increase their awareness to enable them to participate more fully in climate action. For mitigation and adaptation, therefore, the government must primarily strengthen capacity-building - key to boosting regional, national, and global climate action. Investing in this will fundamentally reduce the climate-weight on the government's shoulders.

Starting from policymakers, because education will make it easier for them to design and implement important climate-related policies and measures, to representatives will help us explore and exploit international support (see 2019 paper on COP25). Climate change negotiations are often technical and complex, and difficult for new negotiators to fully grasp, and by providing training and support to stakeholders, underdeveloped and developing country negotiators will be in a level playing field in negotiation proceedings.

Conclusively, an attempt to contain this rising threat must intentionally incorporate higher securitisation of the threat and its various forms; investment into public sensitisation; a general capacity building on alertness and crisis response system as well as general adaptivity to harsh outcomes of climate change. Only then, will climate change and national security be addressed.