A Broken Record: November 2024 Jobs Report

For most of 2024, this publication has had one primary goal: to encourage readers to look beyond the headlines. We strive for education and nuance. And even though we know nuance isn’t always appreciated … we do it anyway.

Why?

We write this monthly update because we are continually surprised by how many hiring decisions are based on headline-driven sentiment. Unfortunately, we are not surprised—but are disappointed—by how often those headlines are reductionist or misleading. To the extent your own hiring is influenced by the monthly jobs report, we want your understanding to be nuanced.?

As usual, we’ll start with the data. Then I’ll explain why the data isn’t what it seems. I know, I know—after six months on the same theme, I sound like a broken record. But as they say: “It is what it is.”

Let’s dive in.

November Jobs Data

After modest adjusted jobs growth of 48,000 in October, the labor market came roaring back in November with 227,000 news jobs. This wasn’t a surprise—economists were predicting 200,000 or more. (October’s numbers were heavily impacted by strikes and hurricanes, so some of these “new jobs” were just old jobs that returned.)?

Despite the new jobs, unemployment ticked up again in November to 4.2% nationally. This figure was impacted by a discrepancy between CPS and CES data: the household survey showed a decline of 355,000 jobs, including 193,000 people who left the workforce last month. (Whether you put more faith in the CPS or CES survey is another article.)

Finally, to the dismay of many employers, wages grew 0.4% in November, matching October’s data and delivering 4.0% growth over the prior 12-month period. Still, wage grow continues to slow, if not stop.

Limitations of the Data

Long-time readers of this employment update know my skepticism of the monthly labor report. So, I’d like to start this particular update with a clarification: I’m not skeptical about the general accuracy of the data. I say this despite substantial revisions over the past 12 months, both upwards and downwards.

I also say this despite a November CES survey response rate of just 47.4%, the lowest since January 1991—33 years ago. (The average response rate for October over the past five years is 69.2%). I also say this despite a November response collection period of just 10 days, at the bottom of the usual 10-16 day period.

And I say this despite discrepancies between the Current Population Survey (CPS), a household survey, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES), an employer survey. These two surveys often yield different employment figures, particularly when it comes to specific demographics like part-time workers or dual job holders.

Finally, I say this despite—and it’s discouraging to have to write this—claims of undue pressure by government officials on the BLS data. While I’m certain there are (and will be) people in government who would love to manipulate the report, I think this report is too complex and institutionalized to be materially influenced by unethical bureaucrats.

So, what am I skeptical about?

What concerns me isn’t the accuracy of the data. What concerns me is that hiring managers will take national data as localized truth. And my concern is that hiring managers will draw conclusions from narrow data that has all the natural limitations of surveys, from sample size to bias. Just because something is accurate doesn’t mean it’s truthful. After all, data is neither honest nor dishonest—it’s just data.

In short, what I want is for hiring managers to understand that BLS data may not reflect their individual circumstances. In the words of 90s StarFox legend Peppy: “Trust your instincts.”

The Labor Market is Great … for Some Locations, Some Jobs, and Some People.

The New York Federal Reserve recently found that the number of people applying for jobs has reached a 10-year-high, and an ASA/Harris Poll found that 45% of the US workforce says they will be looking for a new job in 2025. And yet, that same survey found that 40% of job seekers haven’t had a single job interview this year; and 72% of applicants reported that “applying for jobs feels like sending a resume into a black box.”

Here is the simple fact that renders BLS data of limited usefulness: depending on a person’s industry, function, seniority, and location, the job market is either (1) amazing or (2) horrible. Despite national numbers, the US job market is incredibly variable and nuanced.

For example, the national unemployment?rate for accountants and auditors is roughly 1.6%– in attractive metro markets, it is even lower. In other words, if you are an employer looking to hire accountants in or around Austin, Texas, you will experience a?very?tight labor market that belies today’s jobs report. By contrast, if you’re hiring for a middle manager (a lagging level) in early-stage biotech (a lagging sector) in California (a state with relatively high unemployment), you’ll experience a very different labor market. Both cases are highly variable—who cares about the national numbers?

Hiring managers should also consider that the quit rate is down significantly over the past six months; the “great reshuffling” is over. The return-to-work movement and slowing wage growth have played a role in this trend. But our experience is that candidates have also become fatigued and skeptical about the promises of new employers. This has made it increasingly difficult to poach talent from other companies. As candidate supply decreases, those that?are?hiring will still experience a tight labor market. ??

Recommendations for Employers

The monthly jobs report is useful, but it’s rarely an accurate reflection of your specific hiring pool. Your industry, location, history, compensation, management, requirements and hiring process will all impact how you experience the labor market.

As the market is shifting, we recommend employers consult someone with hands-on experience in your relevant market. Here at the TalentZ?k family of companies (including Simply Biotech and Defense Search), we speak with thousands of employers and candidates each month. That experience allows us to advise our clients on policies and processes to ensure that they can find the talent needed regardless of the market.

If you’d like to learn more, please contact us. And if you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to our Newsletter, The Gatekeeper, for further insights regarding the employment market and the staffing and recruiting industry.

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