Britain Returns to Its Past
George Friedman
Founder and Chairman at Geopolitical Futures, Senior Advisor at Gallup
As of Jan. 1, Britain has completed the process of leaving the European Union. The EU has assured all that dire consequences will haunt the British. Certainly, there will be economic consequences for the U.K., but it is hard to imagine that the departure of the second-largest economy in Europe will not have significant consequences for Europe as well. At minimum, the completion of Britain’s departure shatters a myth about the European Union. The name “European Union” had become synonymous with “Europe.” This was never a true equivalency, as there were European nations excluded from and uninterested in membership like Switzerland and Norway, which chose a non-member relationship. But with Britain on the outside, the sense that the EU speaks for Europe is gone. Britain is a foundational part of Europe, one of Europe’s liberators in World War II and, beginning with the Roman invasion of England, Europe’s occasional enemy and savior. Britain has been a defining force in Europe, and now it has left the European Union. This will challenge the bloc in many ways, the first being that the EU is no longer interchangeable with Europe. Now there is another Europe: Britain.
Since the referendum, there have been two issues. The first was whether British opponents of Brexit could overthrow the result of the referendum. The second was whether the EU could, without appearing excessively conciliatory to the rest of the European Union. At times these two forces seemed to work together to block Brexit. In the end they failed, although Brussels is likely to continue to seek to impose pain, until the British stop buying Mercedes cars in favor of Lexus. At that point the central power of Europe, Germany, will put an end to punitive measures, and the EU will move on.
The real issue now is Britain defining its place in the world. It is a strange one. There is little warfare in Europe at the moment, and little to fear from European powers militarily. This is an odd situation to be in. Between 1945 and 1991, Britain faced the Soviet threat. From 1914 to 1945, Britain faced the German threat, with a truce in between. Now, what threat there is is distant and theoretical. Britain remains a member of NATO, not really a European entity even if most of its members are European. The United States provides the potential military power to NATO, and Britain is one of the few European nations to possess significant military force, and even global reach, at the core of NATO.
CEO & Founder of 3Lives Transformation / Business Coach / Supply Chain Expert
4 年When the emotions calm down the business will carry on, regardless of potential future consequences for the whole Europe. Britain set precedence that creates the real threat for EU to stay united. And it will very likely have mid/long term implications for EU, if UK proves it can work (and I have no doubt it can). Poland could be the next one in a row. But, ironically, it has also implications for UK (e.g. Scotland separation movement or potential Northern Ireland instability), at least short term. For the rest of the world outside of Europe (especially US and China), the weakening EU economic power is a good news, as well as for Russia (more politically than economically). We Europeans prove, as always, to have their future defined by their past, dreaming to rule the world while we cannot even rule our surroundings.