Is Britain in decline?

Hello from London,

I’m not a fan of monarchy, as readers of this newsletter know. But I’ll concede that Britain’s royal family did show last month how to manage succession smoothly. In contrast, look at the dismal soap opera that is British politics. Liz Truss took over as prime minister barely six weeks ago and is already facing the prospect of losing office. On Friday she was forced to sack Kwasi Kwarteng, her chancellor and close ally. His sin was unfurling an ill-considered budget—one Ms Truss had fully backed—that triggered market turmoil and soaring borrowing costs. His ignominious tenure was one of the shortest in modern British history. Then on Monday her new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, in a desperate effort to shore up public finances reversed almost all of that budget. That leaves Ms Truss deeply humiliated and without authority. The policies that she said were essential for Britain as she campaigned to be prime minister just weeks ago have already been dumped.

It’s hard to imagine Ms Truss holding on for long. A minority of her own Conservative MPs wanted her in Downing Street in the first place. Some have already called for her to quit. They dread the increasingly likely prospect of a bloodbath at the next general election. Even some party members who elected her now regret it. We have likened her political life expectancy to the shelf-life of a lettuce.

All that turmoil, combined with dire prospects for the economy and weakening respect for institutions, suggests that Britain is in steady decline. But consider the challenges of organising succession in some other places. What, for example, would happen in Russia if—or perhaps when—Vladimir Putin is at last confronted with the costs of his disastrous war in Ukraine? It’s almost impossible to know if powerful figures in the Kremlin, or perhaps the armed forces or security services, might turn on the autocrat, or perhaps each other. Russia’s economy is proving more resilient than expected. But military setbacks, deaths of conscripts and public dismay over mobilisation leave Mr Putin more isolated than ever.

Autocrats everywhere struggle to manage peaceful transfers of power. Xi Jinping addressed the opening session of the Communist Party congress in Beijing on Sunday—and we sent our correspondent to listen to his lengthy speech so you didn’t have to. Yet Mr Xi’s dominance raises the question of what happens to China when power becomes ever more personalised. He probably expects to stay in office for a long time yet, but by having broken the norm of standing down after two terms, he makes things somewhat less stable. One economic point to flag for this week: China reports GDP figures for the third quarter.

Last, consider the difficulties of another chief, Mark Zuckerberg, presiding over a troubled Meta (formerly Facebook). There, too, a succession question looms. Meta’s share price has slumped in the past year, as daily users of Facebook fall off and Mr Zuckerberg’s bet on the unproven “metaverse” starts to look rash. One day—perhaps soon—it will be time for Meta to replace its founder-boss. Read our new article on the firm to get a sense of its woes.

There’s plenty more to keep journalists and readers busy this week. Consider the American midterms, where the Republicans are gaining in the polls. Paris will host a motor show. In Brazil, as the October 30th presidential run-off looms, the two candidates hold a television debate. EU leaders will discuss how to cope with the energy crunch and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, NATO members will conduct a drill to get better prepared for nuclear escalation.

Finally, if you’re looking for something completely different, allow me to recommend this delightful piece marking 100 years since the founding of the British Broadcasting Company (don’t write in, the BBC became a “corporation” only later in the 1920s.)?

Adam Roberts, Digital editor?

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