"On the Brink of a Period of Great Disorder" Ray Dalio

According to hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio : "If we are prepared for the worst, we will be fine."?

Where We Are in the Big Cycle: On the Brink of a Period of Great Disorder Principled Perspectives (Ray Dalio Newsletter)

My Commentary

The conclusion Ray Dalio shared in his latest newsletter is absolutely wrong.

Instead of preparing for the worst, we can learn how to impact our world in a positive manner, which is the whole purpose of these "exercises" to begin with.

Instead of preparing for the worst, we can learn how to impact our world in a positive manner, which is the whole purpose of these "exercises" to begin with.

I'm sharing his conclusions here in italic, my comments are in bold.

"The world is certainly changing and will certainly change dramatically"

Correct but what is the basis for understanding exactly what these changes are? What his individual ego believes is happening? Where is the map of the full natural evolutionary process we're going through?

"How well this goes will depend on how well the changes are managed."?

Mr. Dalio believes that there are humans who can manage this change. But as long as all these leaders are still operating from the human ego, then they're not qualified to manage these changes. They'll keep making all the same mistakes we've been making for thousands of years. The only people who can guide humanity through this transformation are leaders who have acquired the ability to rise above their egos for the benefit of the collective.

"If the people who have their hands on the levers of power rise above their tendencies to focus on fighting to maximize their own benefits and instead focus on working together to do what is best for the whole and divide the pie well, the financial/economic, domestic political, and international geopolitical orders can change in peaceful ways to create a better world order for most people."

This is a beautiful thought but it will never happen as long as we're still operating in our current egoistic mode.

"Presumably we want that, so we should be strongly against war and in favor of bipartisan pursuit of what is best for most people."

The few super-wealthy families running the world don't want that because they make a fortune from war. So all these things will continue until we learn to evoke the positive forces in the world, which is the only way to escape their control over us.

"However, some will argue that that perspective is too idealistic and that we should be more realistic about what is likely and plan accordingly."

It's not that this perspective is idealistic, it's simply based on a lack of knowledge of what this whole process is really about.

"I agree that history has shown that the pursuit of self-interest has proven to be a more powerful force than the pursuit of collective interests and that there is a good chance that "movement to higher-level thinking and better outcomes" is unlikely"

We can only move to "higher-level thinking and better outcomes" when we understand what we're really dealing with. Yes, our self-interest is an extremely powerful force, and we need to learn to overcome it together.

"We also should be prepared for the worst. If we are prepared for the worst, we will be fine."

Since we are the most sophisticated creatures on this planet, we can do far more than preparing for the worst. Instead of waiting around like sitting ducks, we can learn how to be a positive element in the system we exist in. At the moment we're only feeling the results of the negative forces permeating our world because we're still only operating from the limited space of the human ego - like we've been doing for thousands of years. Our generation is the first to have all the conditions for transitioning to a new mode of existence that will be far more fulfilling.

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According to Mr. Dalio's personal theory, there are five big forces driving everything:

"The five big forces that have intensified to reach levels that are consistent with past big changes in the world order and?are driving just about everything are:

1. The creation of enormous amounts of debt bought by central banks via their printing of money and buying the debt (i.e., monetizing debt)—in other words, the government financing itself in a big way by both borrowing a lot and printing a lot of money.??
2. Big conflicts within countries (now most importantly the US) prompted by the largest wealth and values gaps?in our lifetimes, which?are leading to the emergence of populists of?the left and the right who are fighting with each other.
3. Big conflicts between countries arising from?the rise of countries (now most importantly China) that are becoming?roughly powerful enough to be able to challenge the existing world powers (most importantly the US) and the world order (most importantly the American world order).
4. Acts of nature (droughts, floods, and pandemics)—i.e., climate change.
5. Technology changes—e.g., the First and Second Industrial Revolution, computing and the internet, AI."?

My Commentary

These five trends are not "forces".

There are only two forces in the world: bestowal and reception.

We can balance out the positive and negative forces in the world by learning to use these forces the way they were intended. Since our world has been operating only in reception (based on the desires of the human ego) until now, we're starting to see how in our time this is no longer sustainable. We're going to have to shift to new values so that the economy will not operate in a way that's disconnected from our social issues.

So the only thing driving everything in our world Mr. Dalio is the growing human ego, which we will all need to unpack together. Because no individual will agree to dig deep into understanding our true nature on their own.

Once we fully understand what's under the hood, the tools we have to improve ourselves, and the advantages of expanding our emotional intelligence - everything will start to calm down in our world. And life will become far more fulfilling.