On the brink. The hidden message as Putin skips SA (Lavrov instead goes) the Grain Deal gone, and fuel again a flash point in Europe. And that Bridge
Tankiedom aside, the fact is that the wheels are about to come off
A. Putin will skip SA Brics conference, over ICC arrest threat. This is a seismic event and will weaken his image internationally even if Lavrov attends
B. quote
The White House warned Russia could attack civilian shipping in the Black Sea after a grain deal died.
The UN initiative that expired Monday allowed food to be transported out of three Ukrainian ports.
Russia has attacked Ukrainian port infrastructure, destroying grains, and driving global prices up.
End of quote
I.e. this is, LINKED to item A, if or not people accept it
C. Quote
We also appear to be back to?square one with another commodity — natural gas.?
Europe largely managed to avert an energy crisis last year thanks to a warm winter, but there's no guarantee it'll be so lucky this year. There are once again fears that Europe's energy stockpiles?could be threatened this year if Moscow cut supplies to the continent.?
On Monday,?the International Energy Agency, or IEA,??warned of "major uncertainties" for Europe ahead of the winter, echoing the panic energy markets faced just after Russia invaded Ukraine.?
"A cold winter, together with a full halt in Russia piped gas supplies to Europe early in the heating season, could easily renew market tensions," the IEA said in its third-quarter gas report. "Fierce competition for gas supplies could also emerge if Northeast Asia experiences colder-than-usual weather and economic growth is stronger than expected in China."
end of quote
In a word, all three events are going to vector together for an explosive confrontation, especially if Kyiv in Fall 2023 breaks for good the bridge linking Russia to Crimea. An event I expect as inevitable
We expected complacency as of Fall 2023. NOPE. It is set to blow. And no one is prepared for Grain shortage starvation, the bridge blown and members of the Kremlin (not just Putin) at risk for being arrested by the ICC. I expect Lavrov will also earn his ICC arrest warrant too, and fuel and food shortages making for a horrible fall 2023
quote
Vladimir Putin to skip BRICS summit in South Africa over ICC war crimes arrest warrant threat
By?Euronews??with?AP?????Updated:?20/07/2023 -?07:21
The government in Pretoria has been trying to find a solution which means they wouldn't be obliged to arrest Vladimir Putin, if he arrived in the country.
Vladimir Putin has agreed not to attend an economic summit in Johannesburg next month after being asked to stay away by host country South Africa.?
A major legal quandary faced Pretoria over whether to arrest the Russian president who is subject to an International Criminal Court warrant.
The August summit brings together Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — a bloc of developing economies known as BRICS.?
end of quote
Also
quote
The White House warns Russia could attack civilian ships in the Black Sea now that a key deal is dead
Huileng Tan?Jul 20, 2023, 3:10 AM EDT
Russia could be dangerous even to civilian ships in the Black Sea now?that a crucial accord — the Black Sea grain deal — is dead, the White House warned on Wednesday.
"Our information indicates that Russia laid additional sea mines in the approaches to Ukrainian ports," Adam Hodge, the White House National Security Council spokesperson, said in a statement, the?Associated Press?reported Wednesday.
"We believe that this is a coordinated effort to justify any attacks against civilian ships in the Black Sea and lay blame on Ukraine for these attacks," Hodge said.
The White House's assessment followed the Russian defense ministry's declaration that areas in the northwestern and southeastern international waters of the Black Sea as "temporarily dangerous for navigation," according to?TASS state news agency on Wednesday.?
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The Russian ministry said all ships traveling across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be "considered potential carriers of military-purpose cargoes" from Thursday onwards, per TASS.
The Black Sea grain deal?that expired Monday?allowed?food and fertilizer cargoes to exit from three key Ukrainian ports despite a Russian blockade. The deal was struck in July 2022 to allow Ukraine to continue exporting its food products to the global market amid an?ongoing global food crisis. Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, a staple grain to much of the world.
The UN had to convince Russia to agree to the Black Sea grain deal last year by dangling a quid pro quo deal to allow Russia to keep exporting food and fertilizer. But Moscow said restrictions — such as those targeting?payments?and?insurance?— are making it difficult for the country to ship its produce. As a result, the Black Sea grain deal was scrapped.?
Russian President Putin said Wednesday he would return to the grain deal if the country's demands are met, per?TASS.?These demands?include?reconnecting a sanctioned Russian state bank?to the SWIFT messaging system and lifting insurance restrictions for Russian vessels and cargo.
Meanwhile, the grains market is in turmoil.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy?said in his nightly address on Wednesday that Russia attacked the infrastructure at Odesa, a key port, on the same day. About 60,000 metric tons of farm products were damaged, he said.
—Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa)?July 19, 2023
Wheat futures surged 8%?on Wednesday following news of Russia's port attacks.
The White House and the Kremlin did not immediately respond to Insider's requests for comment.
end of quote
Also
quote
The world is back to July 2022 — Russia's junked a vital food grain deal and Europe may be teetering on the brink of another energy crisis
Huileng Tan?Jul 18, 2023, 1:42 AM EDT
It almost feels like 2022 again.?
Russia just killed the Black Sea grain deal, and there are once again warnings that Europe may face a natural gas crisis this winter if the Kremlin decides to cut supplies.
"The Black Sea agreements are no longer in effect," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday,?according to TASS, a Russian state news agency.
The grain deal?that expired Monday?allowed?food and fertilizer to be transported out of three key Ukrainian ports, despite a Russian blockade. The deal was struck in July 2022 to allow Ukraine to continue exporting its food products to the global market amid an?ongoing global food crisis.
To put this in context, the UN had convinced Russia to agree to the Black Sea grain deal last year by dangling a sweetener — the group would help smooth Russia's food and fertilizer exports amid sweeping sanctions which didn't target these essential goods.
But Moscow said Western sanctions such as those targeting?payments?and?insurance?are still making it difficult to export Russian produce. As a result, the Black Sea grain deal was scuppered.?
Ukraine and Russia are major wheat exporters, so prices of grain surged to record highs when the war started over 500 days ago. Prices fell back to?pre-war levels?when the Black Sea grain deal was struck.
And predictably, Russia's decision to not renew the deal on Monday sent?wheat prices?spiking by over 3%.
We also appear to be back to?square one with another commodity — natural gas.?
Europe largely managed to avert an energy crisis last year thanks to a warm winter, but there's no guarantee it'll be so lucky this year. There are once again fears that Europe's energy stockpiles?could be threatened this year if Moscow cut supplies to the continent.?
On Monday,?the International Energy Agency, or IEA,??warned of "major uncertainties" for Europe ahead of the winter, echoing the panic energy markets faced just after Russia invaded Ukraine.?
"A cold winter, together with a full halt in Russia piped gas supplies to Europe early in the heating season, could easily renew market tensions," the IEA said in its third-quarter gas report. "Fierce competition for gas supplies could also emerge if Northeast Asia experiences colder-than-usual weather and economic growth is stronger than expected in China."
The European Union has cut its reliance on Russian gas dramatically — the bloc used to get around one-third of its supplies from Russia before the war — but that amount has dropped to about 10% by November 2022, according to?EU data.
This is partly also because?most gas flows?via the key?Nord Stream 1 pipeline?have been halted after a major explosion.
While the EU has been snapping up?liquefied natural gas?and storing the fuel ahead of summer and winter — the two seasons when usage typically surges for cooling and heating purposes — even "full storage sites are no guarantee against market volatility during the winter," the IEA said.