A Brief History of Transportation-Where will we go next?

Innovation within the transportation industry in the United States has been a key component of societal development. In the 19th century it brought westward expansion, developing communities and economies beyond agriculture in the Northeast. In the 20th century, the invention of the automobile fit for the “common man” provided, for the first time, an opportunity for frequent travel beyond immediate communities. As the 20th century progressed owning an automobile became a staple for every household and daily commutes to work led to the interstate highway system and the rise of suburbia. As we enter the meat of the 21st century, what societal transformations will result from the rise in autonomous vehicles?

For the majority of US history up to the proliferation of railroads, citizens relied on subsistence farming, and agriculture was the primary industry. There were few communities that could be called “cities” and most families did not venture beyond their towns for their entire lives. The industrial revolution, which can be described as the period between the civil war and the early 1900’s, brought on the emergence of three important industries: steel, oil, and railroads. Railroads, combined with trains, for the first time in American history allowed the common citizen (and in many cases their families) the ability to move beyond areas immediately surrounding their homes. Consequently, the population expanded rapidly to new settlements within the contiguous United States allowing communities to industrialize new natural resources local to the area. The agrarian society was largely dismantled and redistributed to new areas and communities got the first whiff of “corporate America” coinciding with the rise in the steel, oil and railroad industry. While the railroads allowed for new settlements across the United States, major travel beyond westward expansion was rare for most common folk. Once settled, there was little travel beyond the area immediately surrounding their homes (again). The emergence of cities around the turn of the century, however, resulted in a transportation solution that sat between trains and horse-and-buggy. While horse-and-buggy never became a large industry, it served as a prelude to the next big innovation in transportation.

At the turn of the century, a few pioneering individuals worked to create a motorized vehicle designed to replace the horse-and-buggy as the mode of transportation for the upper class. Many of the early models were functional and sold to the target audience, but the industry was seen as something for hobbyists and not for wide-spread adoption. Henry Ford, however, bucked this trend. He saw an opportunity to build off the early strides of technology tinkerers and commoditized the automobile industry, producing an affordable vehicle for the masses. The introduction of the Model A and assembly-line production had a profound impact on society. In the mid-20th century, the boom in the automobile industry led to the development of the interstate highway system, which led to suburbia and resulted in car ownership becoming as ubiquitous as home ownership in the United States, and the world. On a daily basis, humans wake-up, get ready, hop in their cars and operate a vehicle to drive to their jobs. Children head to a bus stop to climb in a big yellow bus that takes them to school. On the weekends families pack into their minivan and head to Uncle Jack and Aunt Jill’s house 40 miles away for an afternoon visit. Indeed, the automobile’s everyday use by humans in the 20th century led to a significant shift in society. Operating a vehicle without human assistance, however, may define the 21st century.

The next great frontier in the evolution of transportation is the introduction of the driverless vehicle. Though not yet here, it will eventually become a reality. The world’s most well-known names in Tech (Google, Uber, Tesla, Amazon), as well as some staple US companies (UPS, GM), are racing to introduce a vehicle ready for this paradigm shift. The efficiencies and opportunity to have a significant impact on society is enormous. While the prospect of humanless vehicles driving around the highway alongside more “pedestrian” vehicles may seem precarious, at best, think of the intrepidness it took to drive the first car or even fly the first plane. There will be a learning curve, yes, but in the long-run machines operated by machines to get humans from point A to point B will be so commonplace that the need for a teenager to learn to drive will go the way of writing in cursive; unnecessary as a result of technological advances.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk made the bold prediction in April 2019 that his company will unveil robotaxis in 2020. “I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year,” Musk said on stage at the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day in Palo Alto, California. They won’t be “in all jurisdictions, because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere, but I am confident we will have at least regulatory approval somewhere, literally next year,” he said (1). Though Musk has a historical streak of proving pundits wrong by achieving audacious goals, the majority of experts in the field believe it will be at least 12 years before autonomous vehicles will be sold to private buyers and robotaxis will not be ready for widespread public use until at least 2025, according to a 2019 poll by JD Power and Associates (2).

As I referenced in my previous article, I am excited and bullish on the prospect of driverless vehicles being a near-term reality. In this instance, however, I side with the experts and not Musk. We are nearing a level of sophistication with AI where automobiles can safely and reliably drive from point A to point B on a predetermined and predictable route. This will be achieved by companies like UPS, FedEx and Amazon within the next few years. AI’s ability to deal with nuances associated with driving around a city (think people crossing crosswalks when they shouldn’t) is not there, and not nearing there anytime soon. 

AI’s maturation can be described in three phases: narrow, general and superintelligence. Presently, AI is operating within the narrow phase which is machine learning that equals or exceeds human intelligence or efficiency, but in one specific area. For example, robots replacing humans on an assembly line to perform one task over and over. General AI refers to a computer that is as smart as a human across the board and that can perform any intellectual task that a human being can. For example, an automated vehicle that has experience driving around the city of Boston, can be placed in San Francisco, adapt to the environment and drive around with ease. This cannot be achieved with narrow AI, and until the transition from narrow to general occurs, robotaxis will not become a reality.

What will the societal impact be for robotaxis, once the technology comes around? I, for one, will never own a car again. I also believe that once the road consists solely of automated vehicles, routing amongst the cars on the road will be optimized to the point where traffic and accidents are minimized (if not eliminated) making transportation far more efficient and safer.

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/22/elon-musk-says-tesla-robotaxis-will-hit-the-market-next-year.html
2. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/29/experts-say-its-at-least-a-decade-before-you-can-buy-a-self-driving-car.html