Brief Analysis of China's Beef Import and Export Data in 2024

1. Import Scale

1.1 Import Volume Exceeded 2.5 Million Tons for Three Consecutive Years

According to data from China Customs, from 2015 to 2023, the import volume of beef-related products in China showed a year-on-year growth trend, though the growth rate slowed down. The import value also showed a positive growth trend, except in 2023 when it declined due to a drop in import unit prices. As China's international beef trade mainly relies on imports, the export scale is relatively small (annual export volume below 5,000 tons and export value below 50 million USD). Therefore, the import trend aligns with the overall trade trend in terms of both volume and scale.

From 2022 to the present, China’s annual import volume of beef-related products has exceeded 2.5 million tons for three consecutive years, while the import value has exceeded 10 billion USD for five consecutive years since 2020.

In 2023, the import volume of beef-related products reached 2.7372 million tons, with an import value of 14.22 billion USD, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.78% in volume but a decrease of 19.92% in value. These accounted for over 99.99% of the total trade volume (2.7373 million tons) and total trade value (14.221 billion USD) of beef-related products in China. Compared to exports, the net import volume was 2.7371 million tons, with a trade deficit of 14.22 billion USD.

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1.2?Cumulative Import Volume in January-September Exceeded 2.5 Million Tons in 2024 for the First Time in 10 Years

Over the past 10 years, the trend of import volume and value from January to September also aligns with the overall trade scale, generally showing positive growth. Import value only showed a year-on-year decline in 2023 due to market fluctuations, with a peak of 13.064 billion USD from January to September 2022.

In summary, from January to September 2024, the import volume of beef-related products was 2.5211 million tons, with an import value of 12.005 billion USD, ranking relatively high in the past 10 years. This represents an increase of 485,600 tons (23.86%) in volume and 1.194 billion USD (11.04%) in value compared to the same period in 2023 (2.0355 million tons, 10.811 billion USD). These accounted for 92.11% and 84.42% of the total annual import volume (2.7372 million tons) and value (14.22 billion USD) in 2023, respectively. Factors such as foreign exporters using beef to offset debts to Chinese importers, influenced by U.S. interest rate hikes, contributed to lower unit prices and import values. The growth rate of import value was significantly smaller than that of import volume. Compared to exports, the net import volume was 2.5208 million tons, with a trade deficit of 12.004 billion USD.

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2. Trade Unit Price

2.1 Import Unit Price Consistently Lower Than Export Unit Price, with a Sharp Decline Since 2023

Due to differences in the structure, mode, and cost of cattle farming, as well as supply and demand for beef globally, the average import unit price of beef-related products in China has consistently been lower than the average export unit price. According to China Customs, from 2015 to the present, the price gap has ranged from 2.58 to 5.86 USD/kg.

From 2015 to 2023, the average import unit price showed a year-on-year decline in 2016, 2020, and 2023, while the export unit price dropped in 2017, 2018, and 2023.

In 2023, the declines were particularly notable. The average import unit price was 5.2 USD/kg, down 1.4 USD/kg (21.21%) year-on-year. The average export unit price was 8.83 USD/kg, down 3.63 USD/kg (29.13%), and 3.63 USD/kg higher than the average import unit price.

Currently, official import and export data from China Customs is available up to September 2024. From January to September 2024, the average import unit price of beef-related products was 4.76 USD/kg, down 0.55 USD/kg (10.36%) year-on-year and 0.44 USD/kg (8.46%) lower than the full-year average in 2023. The average export unit price was 10.39 USD/kg, up 2.27 USD/kg (27.96%) year-on-year and 1.56 USD/kg higher than the full-year average in 2023, and 5.63 USD/kg higher than the average import unit price.

From January 2022 to September 2024, the average import unit price dropped from 6.32 USD/kg to 4.72 USD/kg, a decline of approximately 25.32%, while the average export unit price dropped from 13.81 USD/kg to 11.15 USD/kg, a decline of approximately 19.26%. The decline in the average export unit price was slightly smaller than that of the average import unit price.

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2.2 Domestic Beef Market Price Declined Six Months Later Than Import Prices

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, domestic beef market prices began to decline in February 2023, with significant declines from February to July. A slight rebound occurred in August-September due to seasonal consumption during summer holidays and the Mid-Autumn Festival. However, prices began to decline again in October and had dropped for 12 consecutive months by September 2024.

From January 2022 to September 2024, domestic beef market prices dropped from 87.96 CNY/kg to 68.22 CNY/kg, a decline of approximately 22.44%, which was 2.88 percentage points lower than the decline in average import unit prices (25.32%).

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2.3 Price Fluctuations in Domestic and International Beef Industry Indicators (January-September 2024)

Overall, from January to September 2024, the decline in the average import unit price slowed, showing a steady yet declining trend. Coupled with increased import volume and a sluggish domestic consumption market, domestic beef, carcass beef, and live cattle market prices also showed a downward trend.

Among them, the live cattle market price saw the highest percentage decline (17.12%), while beef market prices experienced the largest absolute decline (12.19 CNY/kg).

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3. Trade Routes

3.1 Main Import Routes: Brazil to Shandong, Shanghai, and Guangdong

In 2023, there were 290 import routes. The top 10 routes by both import volume and value included "Brazil→Shandong, Brazil→Shanghai, Brazil→Guangdong, Argentina→Guangdong, Brazil→Tianjin, Argentina→Shandong, Brazil→Jiangsu, Brazil→Hubei." The "Argentina→Shanghai" route ranked ninth in import volume but had a relatively low unit price, ranking 12th in value. The "Argentina→Tianjin" route ranked 10th in volume but 14th in value due to low unit prices. The "Australia→Shanghai" route ranked fourth in value but 11th in volume. The "United States→Shanghai" route ranked sixth in value but 12th in volume. Together, these 12 routes accounted for 1.2964 million tons (47.36%) of the total import volume (2.7372 million tons) and 6.867 billion USD (48.29%) of the total import value (14.22 billion USD) in 2023.

Imports from Brazil to Shandong, Shanghai, and Guangdong ranked as the top three routes, with a combined volume of 536,400 tons and a combined value of 2.724 billion USD, accounting for 19.6% of the total import volume and 19.16% of the total import value in 2023.

3.2 Main Export Routes: Liaoning to North Korea, Jilin to Hong Kong

In 2023, there were nine export routes. Beef exported through Liaoning ports to North Korea accounted for the largest share—30.88 tons, or 33.3% of the total export volume (92.74 tons). This contributed 279,800 USD, or 34.17% of the total export value (818,800 USD), ranking second in the nation, with an average unit price of 9.06 USD/kg, which was 0.23 USD/kg higher than the national average (8.83 USD/kg).

Beef exported through Jilin ports to Hong Kong had the highest value—300,200 USD, or 36.67% of the total export value. This corresponded to a volume of 30.31 tons, or 32.68% of the total export volume, ranking second nationwide, with an average unit price of 9.9 USD/kg, 1.07 USD/kg higher than the national average.

(Source: Nongxiaofeng)