Bridging the gap between past and future

Introducing the 3i-Canvas

The real challenge we're all facing as humans, managers and entrepreneurs is finding a balance between what we've given as true and hypothetical in the past and what would be a new normal in the future.

The global situation is changing our personal and professional lives at so many levels. That's why entrepreneurs and companies need to stop to act and think of when things will come back as nothing ever happened and start to react actively to design actions. We are not talking only about companies that weren't prepared for this "black swan" or something similar but also of those that now are able to face the main impact in their business model: the social distance. Consumers, groups of people and families are making huge transformation in the prioritization of needs and habits, reshaping the how they do anything and why, when, where, what and with whom. Do you remember those colorful empathy map and personas canvas you designed to better understand your target customers? Well, imagine drawing that map upon yourself. It has never been so dynamic, isn’t it? The reason is because of the uncertainty. It leads to confusion, to fear.

People do feel fear and the corporates too.

As individuals our fears are projected in our social relationship networks, Corporates ones are in their ecosystem. What the Covid-19 highlights is that we have just one big ecosystem, so the war in Ukraine.

They could be able to manage uncertainty, but now Corporates feel the fear that leaders, managers and teams are not able to understand the new big ecosystem. The key point now is to design the new normal, we must shift our mindset from making predictions to a culture of designing concrete initiatives to set up themselves in a tactical and strategic way. Probably our challenge now is to ask ourself "is it normal?" more than a "new normal"

The 3i-Canvas

We know that human beings tend to over-predict change in short time and under-predict change in long and medium time. This is due to our linear way of thinking and our cognitive regarding models and past rules. We use these tools to focus the change factors and to understand these in a comfortable way. But when the change or the context changes in a very substantial way we need the change models and rules too.

Today, we are in the middle of a Tsunami, thinking about the Covid-19 and the war, and we are not able to know the final impact or other consequences or other uncertain factors. But we can understand and analyze critically the impacts that those unpredictable events have in the market.

Strategic Consultants, Exponential Consultants or Futurists use different tools to analyze uncertainty.

We propose our “3i-Canvas".

Why we use it

It allows us to get an understanding of your x-Normal and to go through the process of design scenarios in a uncertainty context between what your business model was and how to change it.

It looks at what kinds of impacts have the unpredictable events on your business model

It allows everyone to get a clear idea of what the business should change.

To classify and to describe the unpredictable events we could face or that we are already facing

To define and to generate tactical and strategic initiatives that fit in short and long time

How to use it

Unlikely that happens

The Unlikely that happens, the impossible, is an event external or internal in the company that suddenly impact one or more aspects of your business. Usually it is something that stops the sales activity or reduce volumes compared to the forecasts.

Good questions to ask:

• Which is the best Unlikely event that we are facing?
• Which is the origin of the Unlikely
• Why would someone want to solve this event?

Tips: try to select just one or two events. Focus your attention on the most pervasive one. Define an event that is not vertical but that is related with all the internal or external ecosystem.

TBIS Model

Now you must analyze the consequences of the Unlikely on the market and customers (both consumer and business). You can focus on four core drives that help companies understand needs, pains and gains.

Good questions to ask:

• Technology: What impacts do we have on the technologies? Which ones do people use or not use? What is the obsolescent rate?
• Behavior: What are the new behaviors? How people and markets react? Which is the social impact?
• Information: What kind of information are growing in their importance? Which kind of data do we need? Which is the main knowledge to spread?
• Skills: What skills do we need? Which kind of people attitude do we need? How to spread out the competences?

Tips: try to select just three main impacts for each area. Focus your attention on the most relevant ones.

Industry features and insights

Industry features and insights are the most relevant competitive dynamics of your market and the main rules of your business model.

Good questions to ask:

• Which are your business paradigms?
• Which is your competitive advantage?
• Which are your best practices and best competences?
• What are the main features of your products and services?
• Who is your main target?

Tips: share and figure out your main insights about your business model and your sector. Focus your attention on your competitive advantages and on main competitive drivers.

Trend

Trend is a pattern of gradual change in a process, output or in a condition. It is an average or general tendency. Trend is path or phenomenon which something is changing, developing or going toward. Trend are the main elements of change in your internal and external ecosystem.

Good questions to ask:

• What trends influence your sector or market?
• What trends drive the main innovations in your sector?
• What trends do you consider relevant in your business model or in your company?

Tips: share and figure out the main trend in

• Political and regulatory
• Technology and tools
• Social and human sciences
• Economics

So, the first step using the canvas is done.

Now you can discuss the current AS IS (Trend and Industry features and insights) through the lens of “Unlikely that happens” and their impacts.

Boosted trends

Boosted trends are the trends that become crucial, some trend that change any features and characteristics or new trend that you can figure after the Unlikely.

Good questions to ask:

• Which trends become crucial?
• Which are the main consequences on Political and regulatory, Technology and tools, Social and human sciences or Economics?
• How much are strong the TBIS impacts?

Tips: think about to discuss all insights or trend starting from the TBIS impact. Focus your attention on the most relevant trend that you have now. Don’t think about changes on your business model but only about impacts on your ecosystem.

Detuned Trends

Detuned trends are the trend that become not important or that change their importance in a dramatical way after the “change”.

Good questions to ask:

• ·Which trends become insignificant?
• Which trends lose importance?

Tips: focus your attention on the removal of the trends you set in the Trends area.

So, the second step using the canvas is done.

Now you can figure out the new main drivers to design and to plan the “New Normal” of your Business Model using only the Boosted trends.

While the first section of the canvas helped you to analyze and understand the impacts that unpredictable events have in your market and business model, the second section aims to help you to design initiatives and solutions to react in a tactical and strategical way.

Inevitable

The inevitable are the drivers and the effects that you cannot avoid or that you must focus on. These elements will define your ecosystem and your competitive landscape in short time.

Good questions to ask:

• What is " inevitable " for your business model in terms of:

o??Products / Services

o??Markets and targets

o??Channels

o??Processes

o??Organization

Tips: be concrete! Go straight to the point and don’t try to save your comfort area.

Imaginable

The imaginable are the drivers and the effect that you can assume that will happen in the near present and future, but you do not have concrete evidences still. It’s a projection of the consequences of the Unlikely in the near future.

Good questions to ask:

• What would be "imaginable" for your business model in terms of:

o??Needs and priorities

o??Customers and prospects

o??Competitor

o??Revenue model

o??Service model

o??Relationship model

Tips: try to imagine some real effects! Don’t be a futurist but think about different scenarios!

Here we are at the final step of the “New Normal” Canvas

Initiatives and solutions

Now you can ideate and generate initiatives and solutions to address and to act in the “New Normal” of your Business Model using the Inevitable and the Imaginable drivers.

Good questions to ask:

• Which are the new paradigms of your ecosystem?
• Do you still have your competitive advantage?
• Do you still have best practices and best competences?
• What are the main features of your products and services that are no more useful?
• Should you change your targets?
• Are your organization ready to implement those initiatives?
• Is your revenue model still updated to the new market features?
• Which assets can you leverage to match customer and market needs?

Tips: You can design solutions at two different level of reaction to the new normal: tactical and strategical.

Conclusions

You can use the "3i" Canvas to update your Strategic Plan or to understand what is going on your business model. You can use this tool after an unpredictable event or to test your business model regarding some events that you can hypnotize.

In our practice, we use the Canvas with Corporates, Institutions and Start Ups to prioritize and combine their scenario analysis with the business model innovation in a concrete way starting from the real context situation.

Francesca Iannibelli is a strategist and creative thinker. Former entrepreneur in the hi-tech and robotics field, with corporates she built her know-how with technology at the cross between educational, entertainment and human experience.

Ivan Ortenzi is an innovation expert, author with "Innovation Manager" and “Intelligenza Artificiale” (FrancoAngeli). He is a professor of Innovation Strategy and Management. Public Speaker, maverick and Montessori kid.