The BRICS Kazan Summit and Sri Lanka

The BRICS Kazan Summit's conclusion provides an opportunity to analyze regional dynamics beyond its widely understood broader objectives. The evolving relationships between China, India, and the United States have significantly impacted South Asian politics.

The COVID-19 era marked significant political transformations across South Asia, with regime changes in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan through civil protests. While these changes stemmed from genuine domestic unrest, they showed clear Western, particularly American, influence. This became evident in Bangladesh when Dr. Yunus attended a conference with Bill Clinton during the QUAD summit, introducing a young protestor as the architect behind regime change protests. In Sri Lanka's case, Ranil Wickremesinghe emerged as a pragmatic compromise leader, despite not being the preferred choice for either the US or India. Notably, the political party that attempted to seize Parliament during the Aragalaya protests now enjoys substantial US support.

India currently exercises influence primarily through ideological means, lacking the economic and military strength of the US or China. Despite this limitation, India maintains effectiveness in global politics and economics, though its path to becoming a major global influencer remains long. The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as a crucial battleground for global powers, with markets and political influence shifting toward the global south. This shift led to QUAD's formation, and the Japanese Prime Minister's recent proposal for a NATO-like Asian organization reflects growing concerns about Chinese dominance. While India promotes a "shared vision for a region governed by accepted rules and norms," the USA, Japan, and Australia more explicitly focus on countering China, potentially forcing India into a difficult position as Washington prioritizes Australian cooperation.

The upcoming US elections add another layer of complexity. While US foreign policy typically maintains continuity regardless of leadership changes, Trump's potential victory could significantly impact the Russia-Ukraine conflict, though it might not affect core US interests. The Israel conflict would likely continue, and containing China would remain a priority, potentially through more media-focused approaches that could backfire. A Harris victory would likely maintain traditional "deep state" policies, emphasizing military spending and pressure on China regarding Taiwan.

The relationship dynamics gained additional complexity when President Biden met with Khalistan groups before the QUAD summit. Meanwhile, India and China's discussions in Russia led to a new border pact for military withdrawal in the Himalayas, though Indian Ocean issues remain unresolved. Both nations acknowledge their common adversary while maintaining necessary economic relationships, particularly given China's export dependence on Western markets.

The resolution of the Galwan Valley dispute demonstrates remarkable diplomatic progress. Despite the 2020 conflict resulting in 18 Indian and 4 Chinese casualties, both nuclear-capable powers achieved peaceful withdrawal within four years. Similarly, China's successful mediation between UAE and Iran showcases its growing diplomatic influence, while India advances through ideological means. Though competitive, both nations appear to be moving toward mutually beneficial arrangements.

For Sri Lanka, these developments raise questions about its diplomatic approach. The government's decisions to skip both the Commonwealth meeting and the BRICS summit, citing domestic elections, suggest prioritizing internal politics over international engagement. The rejection of Sri Lanka's BRICS membership proposal followed, with various unsubstantiated explanations circulating on social media. The fundamental issue remains Sri Lanka's need to engage with emerging markets in the global south, representing its most viable path to development.