Brexit: Why are we still discussing?

British, Exit. Since 2016 all we see was the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union which is known as Brexit. With the post second world war, the political and economic union of EU was primarily aimed to prevent any probable war and maximize trade between countries in the eurozone. There are 28 member states and one of the important one is the UK. Nevertheless after quite a long time — 43 years Britain's decision to leave the EU will be the major topic in European history. So how did all these happen and what was the reason? How the national decision of one country can affect the foreign policy of others? What can be the other consequences? And finally why it becomes such a complicated issue in the international realm? With so I will give historical background and then make my way through a framework of leader attributions, characteristics, the policymaking process and finally the possible impacts on the globe which will make the connection of what I learn from the foreign policy analysis classes.

We know that foreign policy analysis is not only about the outcome; instead, it is better if we focus on the processes. I think Brexit is a long process event and this process can evolve to multiple outcomes at the end. And I assume David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, UK Parliament and the secretary of state for exiting the European Union David Davis are important players in the decision-making.

On June 2016, there was a referendum in the UK and the first main actor was Prime Minister David Cameron his action comes from the idea of repressing the Brexit supporters in his conservative party. He did not prefer the discussions of anti-immigration and anti-EU however those arguments won in the referendum. The percentage was a close vote of 52% for to 48% against. After that referendum we see the change of actors along David Cameron's resign and handing the position to new prime minister Theresa May. Theresa May is an important figure because of her decision making and how they are criticized in Britain. May was in the side of EU Remainer, but not really that much. However, I think she can follow a more accurate path while exiting from the EU. So if we move back to the afterward the referendum, it is likely to identify May’s first action which is submitting the Article 50, will help to negotiate an agreement that started in 2017 Summer to November 2018 which finalized with a divorce deal, but May was unable to get the support of the

UK parliament for that deal. So, even though Britain’s "Leave" vote this would not imply and not represent a formal notification. It can take days — for example, when EU member countries meet for a summit that is scheduled for June 28 to 29. Or British officials might wait a few months to pull the trigger. Once Britain invokes Article 50, it will have a two-year window in which to negotiate a new treaty to replace the terms of EU membership. Britain and EU leaders would have to hash out issues like trade tariffs, migration, and the regulation of everything from cars to agriculture. Another hot topic inside the Bretix is the degree of it; hard or soft, two of them is a broad category. While looking at the UK dynamics with EU I see two institutions one of them is the customs union and the single market.

The EU customs union eliminates tariffs as well as non-tariff barriers (quotas, for example) among EU member states, and it forces the bloc to operate as a single unit when trading with countries outside the EU. So, for instance, Germany, the UK, and France would all have to set the same tariffs when trading cars with the US. This also means that individual countries are largely restricted from striking their own, country-specific trade deals. The single market ensures free and frictionless movement of goods, services, capital, and labor (people) among EU countries, so the EU operates without hard borders as if it were all one country. Four other non-EU states, including Norway, have negotiated access to the single market. (Kirby, 2019)

On one hand, hard Brexiteers prefer not being in the customs union because that would make the UK more independent on the policies of trade. Not only customs union but also they wanted to be out of a single market which is related to the issue of immigration.

On the other hand, soft Brexiteers prefer keeping touch with EU alongside with close relations. But still, they differ on the issues on accesses and the ongoing membership which raises a question to me Aren't they still be in EU if these opportunities continue even if they seem like leaving? I mean this would still be beneficial for the British economy but does EU that ignorant not to see that they are almost abused by Britain with those conditions.

For the historical background part, I want to come to an end. In conclusion, it is not exact and it is not logical to say certain impact because it can be both positive and negative for the UK. It is said that the United Kingdom be a part of the European Union in March of 2019 but the EU and UK have come to an agreement on a further delay to Brexit until 31 October. Until that time there will be probably no difference on that matters but in the end it is for sure that there will be other countries other than Britain which will be affected by the possible decisions of no deal, leaving the EU, major renegotiations, another referendum, call a general election, another no-confidence vote, no Brexit or other possibilities. After a short reminder of what happened and what is going on in the issue of Brexit, we can now talk about the analysis part. One thing that caught up on my eye is that the issues of economic nationalism and individualism; I believe that these approaches may not be logical while the globe is getting more and more interconnected and interdependent alongside with globalization. Also, not only the economic side but also socially; anti-immigration propaganda is dangerous if it can lead to discrimination and racial violence. In order to that Brexit presents a Eurosceptic view in the UK.

The outcome of Brexit vote, the election of Donald Trump, and the electoral success of nationalist forces across the globe seem indicative of a growing backlash against international cooperation. While Donald Trump’s slogan ‘Make America Great Again’ is at the heart of his campaign and the current administration, Nigel Farage’s mantra of ‘taking back control’ dominated the Brexit campaign. (De Vries, 2018.)

Also while reading some of the analysis I realized that if a member country of EU sustains and maintains much better economic social and political efficiency than EU it is more likely to for that country to be more eurosceptic. Zack Beauchamp has written, “British politics has always included a faction that’s skeptical of deeper integration with the rest of Europe.” Because the UK is already achieving the goals and perceive it so, according to that exit option is feasible for them.

In the decision-making process of Brexit; some of the assumptions are the EU has a potential threat for British sovereignty which can at the end modify the national identity. With the EU, the British government accepted too many immigrants and this created concerns for the older side of the population. The influx of immigrants from poorer EU states and, later, fears over refugees and migrants from Syria and other parts of Africa and the Middle East helped galvanize voters in the UK and tapped into a larger skepticism about EU membership. (Kirby, 2019) And the EU imposed budgetary constraints and regulations which again disliked. Even though benefits from the free movement of capital and trade with the EU, the UK could not see it and critiqued euro.

However, these concerns are a bit nonsense to me. Why? Because even though the UK is a member country it has always had a degree of distance from the EU — it maintains its own currency, the sterling pound, and never joined the Schengen agreement, which eliminates internal border controls within the EU.

Let's have a look at the politicians I believe that who started by making everything this complicated is May, she not only played wrong moves but also not really come with a good solution. That is why she needs to resign. She expressed her hopes such UK would be more united and by that, it was a time to come together while making her speech about the article 50 in the parliament however after two years of renegotiations it is observed that voters are divided like they been never before. After two years of negotiations, only 13% percent of people think the government is doing “well” and 78% think that the government is doing a bad job of negotiating Brexit. Eventually, it turns into a political blame game.

Finally, what can it be said from the Article 50 and May’s action is that Britain is about to make a decision that will affect itself every field in life but what I understand is this cannot be achieved with May's policies; because her deals do not guarantee a sustainable outcome. The deal creating a risk for the economy because of the customs union if they out of the union British businesses cannot sell their products easily in the Eurozone. The restrictions made by the EU for the workers right can be ignored afterward, and it can weaken workers’ rights. Not only workers but also immigration rights on risk too, because immigration law is uncertain in the deal.

I totally agree with Jenni Russell words which “May’s extraordinary inability to develop or grasp the critical importance of alliances, friendships, coalitions and mutual understanding in politics has destroyed her premiership — and derailed the Brexit process from its beginning to its calamitous stalemate today.” With that, it can be said that Britain has a lesson to learn. 

References

Allott, P. (2019, April 23). Brexit is unnecessary. Indeed, we already enjoy some of its advantages. Retrieved April 25, 2019, from https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/04/25/brexit-is-unnecessary- indeed-we-already-enjoy-some-of-its-advantages/

De Vries, C. E. (2018, May 07). Euroscepticism is here to stay. Retrieved April 26, 2019, from https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/09/euroscepticism-is-here-to-stay/

Heath, R. (2019, April 18). Brexit Britain: Small, boring and stupid. Retrieved April 23, 2019, from https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-britain-small-boring-and-stupid-theresa-may-eu-withdrawal- deal/

Hobolt, S. B. (2019, April 25). Divided over Brexit. United in despair over politicians' handling of Brexit. Retrieved April 26, 2019, from https://ukandeu.ac.uk/divided-over-brexit-united-in-despair- over-politicians-handling-of-brexit/

Kirby, J. (2019, April 12). 9 Brexit questions you were too embarrassed to ask. Retrieved April 24, 2019, from https://www.vox.com/world/2019/4/10/18283027/brexit-news-uk-eu-questions

Lee, T. B. (2016, June 25). Brexit: The 7 most important arguments for Britain to leave the EU. Retrieved April 24, 2019, from https://www.vox.com/2016/6/22/11992106/brexit-arguments

Lee, T. B. (2016, June 25). Britain has voted to leave the EU. Here's what happens next. Retrieved April 24, 2019, from https://www.vox.com/2016/6/23/12021222/brexit-what-happens-next

Russell, J. (2019, March 29). Is Theresa May the Worst Politician Ever? Retrieved from https:// www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/opinion/theresa-may.html

Mueller, B. (2019, January 24). What Is Brexit? A Simple Guide to Why It Matters and What Happens Next. Retrieved April 24, 2019, from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/world/ europe/what-is-brexit.html