Brexit: Uncharted Territory

The public has spoken, Britons voted with 52% majority declaring their desire to leave the European Union. Leaving many uncertainties in the days, months and years ahead. Leaders of the free world, from United States President Barack Obama to German Chancellor Angela Merkel to French President Francois Hollande, passionately argued against a Brexit, with their own set of dire warnings and concerns. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, who appeared “unassailable a year ago”, is now on his way out after voters rejected his pleas for Britain to remain in the EU. In the end, it was all about fear, and to that end, the anti-immigration crowd, led by the likes of the U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage, and to a lesser extent Conservative MP Andrea Leadsom along with, Brexit ally, former mayor of London Boris Johnson won the day. Taking their anti-immigration message directly to the public, effectively drowning out the arguments from world leaders and elites, thus thrusting the United Kingdom into uncharted territory.

To understand why immigration was such a driving force in the Brexit campaign it is essential to take a deep dive into recent migration numbers to gain some perspective. In the early 90’s immigration was not a major concern to everyday Britons, net migration then was less than 100K, important to note that this is the same level to which Prime Minister Cameron had twice promised to reduce the net inflow to. Today, immigration into the United Kingdom has hit the 330K a year mark. Oxford researchers Cinzia Reinzo and Carlos Vargas-Silva point out 3 keys take aways in this brief to The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford:

• Between 1993 and 2014 the foreign-born population in the UK more than doubled from 3.8 million to around 8.3 million. During the same period, the number of foreign citizens increased from nearly 2 million to more than 5 million.

• In 2014, the UK population was 13.1% foreign-born (up from 7% in 1993) and 8.5% foreign citizens (up from 4% in 1993).

• Foreign-born people constituted 39% of Inner London’s population in 2013 (the highest share among all regions with comparable data).

Coupled with the 2008 financial downturn along with the eurozone crisis that hit other wealthy EU countries hard, fear of mass immigration and the effects to one's country were particularly intense to working class British citizens, especially to those outside of the more liberal, metropolitan London. The same areas that overwhelmingly voted to leave the EU. Immigration fears among the working class were so intense, that it appears the arguments of world leaders and perceived elites were drown out by the incendiary rhetoric of pro Brexit campaigners such as UKIP leader Nigel Farage. The same Nigel Farage who had previously been accused of “outrageous blatant scaremongering” after suggesting British women were at risk of sex attacks should Britain remain in the EU.

“I found the overwhelming strength of feeling on immigration just trumped all other issues.” declared Labour’s Jonathan Reynolds upon hearing of the election results reports Chris Slater of the Manchester Evening News. With polls showing 20% of Labour’s own supporters unclear of their own leader's position, clearly those in favor of the ‘Bremain’ campaign had trouble breaking thru the noise. Parallels are currently being written across the globe of Nigel Farage and that of the presumed GOP nominee for President Donald Trump. Will American voters embrace this anti-immigration rhetoric? Will the Brexit vote be a ‘domino effect’ throughout Europe and beyond? The Brexit campaigners’ anti-immigration message, right or wrong, resoundingly resonated with the public, effectively drowning out arguments from world leaders, thus thrusting the United Kingdom into uncharted territory.