How Brexit will affect the world's economy

Living across the pond, every now and then I imagine what Brexit feels like. Hate crimes are at record high levels, but how are the prospects for the future? What will job losses be like? What to expect.

When Britain triggers Article 50 in March 2017, it will mark the UK leaving the EU will be official by the end of March 2019.

The Brexit process is an unprecedented journey, riding the very coat-tails of uncertainty into a transformed Britain and EU. Some are calling the exit talks:

The most important and complex negotiations in modern times.

Article 50 is the mandate responsible for what some call the greatest disaster to befall the EU in its 59-year history. Meanwhile, the British PM plans a "hard Brexit", to add more confusion to the inevitable. Many folk think this is a great idea for Britain.

The Prime Minister has pledged to trigger Article 50 of the E.U. treaty — the formal mechanism to begin the process of departure — by the end of March, 2017.

• Unemployment is down and continues to fall.
• A quick look at a Brexit business impact tracker, paints a clear picture.

The Pound Tumbles

The decline of Sterling is good for tourism but might have long-term consequences.

• Business investments could be up to a quarter lower in the future (2019), compared with pre-Brexit estimates.
• Economists moreover believe that growth will slow, incomes will be squeezed and investment delayed.
• With the weakened Pound, some argue it's more attractive for new companies and talent who move to Britain for the quality of life and the second biggest native English experience.

The Future is Iffy

The "Trump Bump" is not going to last forever, and while Global markets may have initially recoiled immediately after Brexit occurred due to the pure shock and uncertainty, the future still looks uncertain.

There will likely be major sentiment and market changes for years to come both inside Britain, the EU and abroad.

Slower growth however, is a major concern:

From about 2.1 per cent in 2016 to no more than 1.5 per cent in 2017 (maybe less), it's likely the true long-term economic impact of Brexit won't be known for months and maybe even years come.

The Wave of Brexit Leads to Fragile Sentiment

While the EU appears weakened and the momentum of the anti-globalization values of #Brexit and Trump seems to be spreading, some more traditional countries do not seem to be that affected.

However in the post-modern world, if one reality is truer than ever it's how interconnected the global economy is.

You can alter trade, change immigration policy, reset relationships, but the digital world and the global economy ensures that we live in one world, we are one planet.

For Britain however, the closer we are to March, 2017, the more the debate and geo-political and internal tension will mount with regards to Britain's future relationship with Europe, when Article 50 will be triggered.

Meanwhile until it's all official pre 2019, a more fragile consumer sentiment is expected.

The Brexit Cascade - Rise of Neo-Populism

However, Britain started it. The Brexit Cascade has indirectly spawned a climate where Trump as POTUS became possible.

Later this year (in 2017), we'll see how elections fare in Germany, France the Netherlands and others as right wing populism mounts.

Could our cherished global pacts and institutions such as the EU, NATO and even the UN be weakened by this movement?

Far-right groups in Europe have now become normalized with anti-immigration sentiment reaching new highs.

Trump's aborted Muslim immigration-ban and ties to Russia do not help matters as we seem to be entering a period of geo-political unrest.

Typically such periods are not good for the global economy and indicate increased risks and vulnerability.

British Government finances were forecast to be  ￡122bn worse off in the period until 2021 than had been forecast in March's Budget.

Which begs the question, what is the actual economic cost of such epic negotiations such as Brexit, or Trump renegotiating trade deals?

In Britain, it seems fairly inevitable that Brexit vote’s blow to the pound, will continue to stoke inflation and hit people’s spending power.

However, we won't likely know before the summer of 2019, what the future holds exactly for Britain on its new path.

If Brexit shocked the world, now in 2017, it feels like par for the course.

When lower educated voters are the movers, the new normal is controversial, vulnerable and fraught with the fear of the next global economic recession.

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What is your perception for Brexit's long-term impact on business, for jobs and the economy in Britain? Will the rise of the right-win "Brexit Cascade" continue to wreck havoc in Europe?