Brexit: Sleep-walking towards disaster for aviation

Whilst we can all debate the rights and wrongs of the referendum that led to Brexit we have been dealt a card that the aviation industry was neither expecting nor prepared for. Modern democracy has cast aside the political norms demanding change on the basis that it must be better than under the current political elite; Brexit, Trump, France and who is next. Our mature democracies have maintained a degree of stability but going forward those institutions who build barricades around themselves to protect the status quo will eventually be eclipsed into irrelevance. 

The institutions that are involved in Brexit over the next 18 months have every opportunity to fail. Such failure could set aviation back not just across Europe but around the globe by about 20 years.

Rules are only good when market tested and Article 50 creates a market test for the EU that was probably never contemplated when the rules were drawn up. The two-year deadline, which includes the set up and report back, leaves little over 12 months to work out the means of exit and future relationships across the full bandwidth of decades of intertwining of relationships and laws. The EU is not known for its efficiency both due to it being answerable to 27 member states but also in the depth of bureaucracy that has grown year on year despite the global recession.

The UK is saying that no deal is better than a bad deal and Germany is saying that the UK is no longer a reliable partner. A €100bn exit fee before discussing new trade relationships against an integrated deal or no deal. 

“Pay or face the consequences”. 

Not exactly a strong start. 

The recent UK General Election is creating a blancmange of political leadership.

The EU’s position of “an exit without a shopping list of benefits” suggests that getting some form of integration of the aviation sector that many in the industry would like to see is going to be a challenge. 

This is not eased due to differing opinions amongst aviation stakeholders.

Let’s unpack what this means for aviation and aerospace. It is perhaps worth noting that four of the five priorities set by the EU affect aviation to a greater or lesser extent. 

1. The status & rights of UK citizens in the EU and of EU citizens in the UK; employment in the UK service economy and generator of significant flights across Europe for Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) traffic
2. Disruptions in the provision/circulation of goods to the UK impacting for value chains. The European supply chain would be disadvantaged against the US and Asia
3. The reintroduction of customs controls, which would slowdown trade; and
4. Aviation as withdrawal from the ECAA would create very serious disruptions for air traffic to/from the UK.

Dislocation to movement

Read the full article here...