To Brexit or Not to Brexit. That is the Question.

“Should I stay or Should I Go Now” - The United Kingdom, 2016

Okay, I am Canadian and no-longer-resident in the UK, so I am sure people will have something to say about me having opinions on Brexit. That said, I am the husband to a British wife, father to a British/Canadian son and soon to be father to a British daughter. I also started my first business — and created many British jobs — in England in 1997; jobs that still exist today.

And, I consider myself a global citizen with largely social values; I care about people and our planet.

Before getting to Brexit, let's talk about democracy; a very flawed system of government that is, quite simply, the least horrible way to govern a population. Or, the best possible option of all the terrible options before us.

There are several reasons for this that we don’t need to go into right now. But there is one glaring example staring us in the face today:

Both in the United States and in Europe we are witnessing an unfortunate combination of the dumbing-down of the population and the rampant use of fear and lies to sway voters that barely have enough time to raise their families, complete their tax returns and take care of their health; never mind having the time to actually review the various issues that they might be asked to vote on in public votes and referendums.

In the United States both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are well known for their flexibility with the truth; voters on each side justifying their fork-tonged candidates and the corrupt messages spewing forth from their mouths and various mouthpieces.

In the end, the American people will be voting, mostly, on feelings rather than facts. Because the facts are obscured by smear campaigns, lies and lobbyists.

Real democracy — one person one vote — is not efficient because the population does not know enough about all the issues that must be voted upon. Brexit, for example, would probably require at least a degree-level education in the EU and in international finance & law in order to make a truly reasoned vote. Since I have neither, I have a hard time when my British friends and clients ask me for an opinion.

Just to underscore this point, Simon Hix (the Harold Laski Chair at LSE) a Professor of Political Science, wrote an article about comparative levels of familiarity with the EU (how it works and what it is) and found that the UK population knows less about the EU than the populations of ANY other member states. (He also notes that more knowledge did not correspond one way, or the other, with a vote to #Remain or #Leave.)

My point is that the UK has a very large population of politically diverse and emotionally charged people who are about to vote on something that they are woefully ill-prepared to vote upon. This makes them easy prey for manipulative marketing, emotional metaphors, and outright lies.

That said, I have done what research I can — as a concerned father, investor and global citizen — and while I now lean heavily toward the #Remain side of the argument, I have far more questions than answers.

Before undertaking any research I was interested in the various arguments (for and against) scrolling through my own social media feeds; friends of mine including Kevin Burch, Karl Pearsall and Daniel Priestly all voicing various facts, thoughts, and concerns about the upcoming vote.

What struck me immediately was how I could be swayed by the opinions of my friends; that without my own research I was looking to my friends and mentors for direction in forming my opinion.

Over the last month, this stopped working in grand style because so many of my friends and mentors are divided:

Richard Branson, #VoteRemain.

James Dyson, #VoteLeave.

Sir Mike Rake (and the CBI) #VoteRemain.

Sir Michael Caine, #VoteLeave.

Daniel Priestley, #VoteRemain.

Julian Fellows, #VoteLeave.

I have also looked at what other word leaders think about Brexit. Sure, Obama says #Remain. That does not sway me; I am unclear as to his motivation.

But when Trump — who I seriously doubt has either the UK or the EU’s best interests at heart — wants the UK to #VoteLeave, that does sway me. Trump, who carefully says that he does not want to ‘offer the people of the UK advice’ has stated, a number of times, that leaving would benefit the UK. Specifically, he said to the Sunday Times that he “would personally be more inclined to leave, for a lot of reasons like having a lot less bureaucracy.” I see his #BuiltThatWall, and his xenophobic approach to immigration, as being very aligned with the far right of the #VoteLeave movement.

And so I started doing my own research. And while I am still far short of the degree-level specialization that I believe is required to form a truly informed decision, I am struck by a number of things:

1) I am not a big fan of the way the EU is governed at times. Increasingly, though, I believe that the ‘lack of transparency’ that the #VoteLeave people complain about is far more about the British people’s disinterest in, and their resulting ignorance of, how the EU and the European parliament really works.

2) The idea of “unelected officials” touted by #VoteLeave is, truly, a frightening idea. But, like many of the arguments in this debate, it is really not true and only magnified by the previously-mentioned ignorance of the process. The election of MEP’s (Members of European Parliament) is clear, unreasonably fair (gives slightly unfair representation to smaller States so that they are not drowned out by Germany, France and the UK) and highly democratic. In fact, while each member state has their own methods for electing MEP’s, the general formula allows for proportional representation; not majority rule. (Of course, there will also be unelected (appointed by the member states) officials; every government is full of hired, contracted and appointed bureaucrats; this is unavoidable.)

3) Apparently, when the EU makes decisions the UK has been on the winning side of those decisions more than 90% of the time. In other words, the #VoteLeave side wants to leave a relationship wherein their partners agree with them more than 90% of the time.

4) Immigration: I understand the #VoteLeave argument here. It is crowded in the UK and “we have to stem the flow of unchecked immigration of both EU citizens and the various refugees and immigrants flooding into the EU all the time.” Understanding this, however, does not help me to agree with it.

• I am forced to say that I am tired of the #VoteLeave’s Schrodinger Migrants; the ones that are simultaneously hard working, job-hungry job stealers and lazy benefit-scamming couch-potatoes.
• Secondly, where should we draw the line? Even the most British-of-the-British are immigrants (or descendants of immigrants); a large part of the magic of the UK has been to be the world’s first modern, and best ever, cultural melting pot. Why should this generation, now, be the ones to close the door?
• As a global citizen — having visited 50 countries and done business in more than 20 — I am quite disturbed at the xenophobic tone of the #VoteLeave side of the argument. To me, this aspect of #VoteLeave is basically the same as #BuildThatWall. What right do first-world nations have (most of whom have amassed their great wealth at the cost of second and third world countries) to horde that wealth and behave like the worst citizens of the “Capital” (Hunger Games).
• Does the post-Brexit UK desire access to the free European market after leaving? First, do not take for granted that it will even be on offer. Secondly, read about Norway. They pay massive membership dues (in the UK those dues would amount to just about the same amount as Britain currently remits to the EU) and they have to abide by EU regulations in the same way they would if they were a member. INCLUDING THE FREE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE. So, Norway pays for access to the EU, is bound by EU regulations but has no ability to influence the EU.
• But then there is the larger issue; the #VoteLeave movement wants a divorce from what they see as a dysfunctional marriage. A marriage that certainly has its problems but a marriage that has contributed to the longest period of European peace in recent history and a marriage in which Britain is on the winning side of 95% of discussions and decisions.

5) Economics: I have seen that even many on the #VoteLeave side of the argument acknowledge that the majority of economists and specialists believe that the UK economy would be hurt by leaving. They argue that this is unimportant because many of those same specialists also argued that failing to join the Euro would be bad for the UK. Unfortunately, we will never know whether the UK joining the Euro would have been good or bad because it didn’t happen. We simply don’t know. This is like speculating that a star footballer made the right choice not to join a specific team when that team has lackluster performance in the years that follow. Sure, but how would that team have done if the star had joined the team. And how would the star have performed on that specific team? Or, how would the Euro be doing with the UK on the team? How would the UK be doing on that team? Nobody has any idea. And if they pretend that they do, don't listen. 

It has been pointed out that the UK has the fifth largest economy in the world and that, therefore, the UK will be just fine on its own. The first part of that statement is a fact, according to the IMF, the second part is an unprovable theory. A theory that should be considered alongside the knowledge that the UK’s position at number five should be measured against how tight the ranking is outside the top 3 positions. In fact, one has to add Britain’s economy to the economies of the next 10 places before you could tie the first position (USA). Whereas the EU is on just about equal economic footing with the USA and the UK is a major voice inside the EU. 

But let's be clear: These are my observations and opinions. Arrived at by sifting through the various opinions of others and the, wherever possible, the objective data I could find. I don't suggest that you act upon my opinion or the opinions of anyone without experience equal to or greater than a degree-level education in this specific subject.

That said, if Britain does vote to leave, I have a few concerns:

1) I am not sure that the government will even follow the UK vote to ‘leave’ unless it is won by an overwhelming majority. (Most people do not realize that the referendum is only ’advisory’ and that an amendment to the law that underpins Britain’s membership still requires a majority in the House of Commons.)

2) The UK would then go into the most extensive, expensive and painful divorce in the history of divorce. Over the next two years, Britain will dedicate tremendous resources to negotiating its separation from the EU which will result in countless decisions that the British people will have little to no say in.

3) The UK will find themselves having to revisit 40 years of law-making and legislation that was all undertaken through the lens of EU membership; laws that have been created or updated since 1973 have been heavily influenced by the EU legislation and regulation. People who DO have the PHD-level specialization in this topic tend to agree: it will take more than a decade for lawyers, consultants, and specialists to revisit and re-write British legislation. This will be a much bigger project than can be handled by parliament  — especially when you consider swings to the right and left at each electoral cycle —  therefore, much of the UK legal system will simply be written by unelected specialists and officials who will, at the same time, attract massive wealth for themselves in the process. (Not to mention the messy and expensive legal arguments that will take place during this legally ambiguous time.)

4) I was very happy to see Scotland #Remain in the UK but, since they apparently overwhelmingly believe that the UK should remain in the EU, #VoteLeave probably breaks up the UK and sees Scotland #VoteLeave and then join the EU. I can already hear a few right-wing conservatives shouting ‘good riddance’ but those are not the voices of #VoteLeave that I respect, in the least.

I believe that our planet needs more teamwork and less tribalism. I also believe in free trade and open immigration (freedom of movement). That the EU provides these things is not in doubt. That the EU could be improved is also not in doubt. Britain leaving the EU, on the other hand, hurts free trade, freedom of movement and weakens (in my opinion at least) both the EU and the UK.

- Eric Edmeades, Serial Entrepreneur

“If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.” - Proverb